报告公司投资评级 - 行业为基础化工/化学制品，6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 公司2025年一季报显示营收3.04亿元，同比+17.31%，归母净利润0.18亿元，同比+94.26%，扣非归母净利润0.14亿元，同比+190.91%，利润增长因民爆器材销售量增幅大，上调2025年盈利预测，维持“增持”评级 [1] - 2025年一季度综合毛利率23.65%，同比+0.80pct，期间费用率22.23%，同比-1.60pct，净利率3.48%，同比+2.8pct，CFO净额0.94亿元，同比大增1198.65%，收现比/付现比分别为128.65%/75.85%，同比分别变动+26.78/+1.33pct [2] - 2025Q1全国民爆行业总体稳中向好，西藏地区民爆高景气延续，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程、西藏大型矿山开采、区域基建等项目推进，公司业绩迎来加速释放期 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |指标|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|1,552.62|1,692.31|2,124.84|2,615.05|3,186.46| |增长率(%)|36.88|9.00|25.56|23.07|21.85| |EBITDA(百万元)|305.46|371.42|478.28|618.88|827.01| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|97.76|148.17|274.42|390.62|567.08| |增长率(%)|83.11|51.56|85.21|42.34|45.17| |EPS(元/股)|0.35|0.54|0.99|1.42|2.05| |市盈率(P/E)|81.59|53.83|29.07|20.42|14.07| |市净率(P/B)|9.73|8.61|6.63|5.01|3.69| |市销率(P/S)|5.14|4.71|3.75|3.05|2.50| |EV/EBITDA|16.88|20.68|18.23|13.63|9.98| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本276.00百万股，流通A股股本276.00百万股，A股总市值7,976.40百万元，流通A股市值7,976.37百万元，每股净资产3.35元，资产负债率55.17%，一年内最高/最低36.12/13.96元 [8] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|745.33|446.10|539.36|317.79|190.76| |负债合计|1,568.36|1,384.91|1,897.18|1,710.12|1,658.93| |股本|276.00|276.00|276.00|276.00|276.00| |股东权益合计|1,059.19|1,186.32|1,497.96|1,925.30|2,541.86| [12] 资产负债表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|738.80|534.36|998.68|1,124.47|1,242.72| |应收票据及应收账款|825.88|1,009.24|1,328.09|1,432.24|1,842.74| |预付账款|8.03|6.86|8.25|9.02|10.47| |存货|92.97|90.54|100.26|96.37|110.02| |其他|68.85|133.72|165.87|165.28|178.24| |流动资产合计|1,734.53|1,774.71|2,601.14|2,827.38|3,384.20| |长期股权投资|11.77|10.94|10.94|10.94|10.94| |固定资产|619.60|603.32|607.76|611.70|616.14| |在建工程|43.29|14.10|19.30|22.00|23.90| |无形资产|88.19|90.18|92.30|93.00|93.72| |其他|108.60|55.04|63.70|70.40|71.89| |非流动资产合计|871.46|773.58|794.00|808.04|816.59| |资产总计|2,627.55|2,571.23|3,395.14|3,635.42|4,200.79| |短期借款|249.90|165.60|559.19|586.18|604.89| |应付票据及应付账款|247.91|169.81|187.92|186.15|226.63| |其他|315.58|598.51|610.71|620.00|636.65| |流动负债合计|813.39|933.92|1,357.82|1,392.32|1,468.17| |长期借款|712.34|424.41|516.36|292.79|163.76| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|32.99|21.69|23.00|25.00|27.00| |少数股东权益|239.11|260.36|294.28|332.91|382.22| |股本|276.00|276.00|276.00|276.00|276.00| |资本公积|282.95|282.95|282.95|282.95|282.95| |留存收益|251.15|357.92|632.34|1,022.96|1,590.03| |其他|9.97|9.10|12.39|10.49|10.66| |股东权益合计|1,059.19|1,186.32|1,497.96|1,925.30|2,541.86| |负债和股东权益总计|2,627.55|2,571.23|3,395.14|3,635.42|4,200.79| [13] 利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|1,552.62|1,692.31|2,124.84|2,615.05|3,186.46| |营业成本|1,070.49|1,178.48|1,430.94|1,726.47|2,063.88| |营业税金及附加|7.07|10.80|12.75|15.95|19.44| |销售费用|48.01|47.66|53.12|58.84|60.54| |管理费用|201.59|182.46|199.74|240.58|264.48| |研发费用|37.46|34.31|38.25|47.07|50.98| |财务费用|18.45|18.89|29.53|30.08|23.89| |资产/信用减值损失|(41.99)|(43.32)|(25.00)|(28.00)|(32.00)| |公允价值变动收益|(5.40)|0.00|(2.00)|(3.00)|(2.50)| |投资净收益|1.07|0.31|1.00|1.00|1.00| |其他|78.81|74.76|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |营业利润|137.06|187.97|334.52|466.05|669.75| |营业外收入|0.18|2.95|4.00|5.00|6.00| |营业外支出|0.81|0.75|0.80|0.90|1.00| |利润总额|136.43|190.17|337.72|470.15|674.75| |所得税|14.25|16.44|29.38|40.90|58.37| |净利润|122.18|173.72|308.34|429.25|616.39| |少数股东损益|24.42|25.55|33.92|38.63|49.31| |归属于母公司净利润|97.76|148.17|274.42|390.62|567.08| |每股收益（元）|0.35|0.54|0.99|1.42|2.05| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|36.88%|9.00%|25.56%|23.07%|21.85%| |营业利润|103.33%|37.14%|77.97%|39.32%|43.71%| |归属于母公司净利润|83.11%|51.56%|85.21%|42.34%|45.17%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|31.05%|30.36%|32.66%|33.98%|35.23%| |净利率|6.30%|8.76%|12.91%|14.94%|17.80%| |ROE|11.92%|16.00%|22.80%|24.53%|26.26%| |ROIC|11.39%|13.98%|20.51%|23.29%|30.93%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|59.69%|53.86%|55.88%|47.04%|39.49%| |净负债率|33.42%|40.06%|33.17%|9.32%|-1.73%| |流动比率|2.13|1.91|1.92|2.03|2.31| |速动比率|2.02|1.82|1.84|1.96|2.23| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|2.11|1.84|1.82|1.89|1.95| |存货周转率|17.18|18.44|22.27|26.60|30.88| |总资产周转率|0.65|0.65|0.71|0.74|0.81| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|0.35|0.54|0.99|1.42|2.05| |每股经营现金流|0.19|0.00|0.32|1.56|1.21| |每股净资产|2.97|3.35|4.36|5.77|7.82| |估值比率| | | | | | |市盈率|81.59|53.83|29.07|20.42|14.07| |市净率|9.73|8.61|6.63|5.01|3.69| |EV/EBITDA|16.88|20.68|18.23|13.63|9.98| |EV/EBIT|21.54|25.04|21.58|15.58|11.07| [13]