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中海油服:钻井平台作业天数大幅增长,Q1业绩超市场预期-20250424

报告公司投资评级 - 行业为石油石化/油服工程,6个月评级为买入(维持评级),当前价格13.29元 [4] 报告的核心观点 - 2025年Q1公司营业收入达108亿元,同比+6.4%;归母净利润为8.87亿元,同比+39.6%,超预期原因可能是钻井平台作业天数和使用率大幅增长带来的利润弹性、债务结构改善带来利息支出减少7千万、所得税率有一定下滑 [1] - 维持预测2025 - 2027年归母净利润为40.3/42.4/44.3亿元,A股对应PE 16 /15/14倍,维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 钻井平台板块 - 2025Q1作业天数为4889天,同比+11.4%;其中半潜式钻井平台作业天数同比+9.1%;自升式平台同比+12.1% [2] - 2025Q1自升式、半潜式钻井平台可用天使用率分别91.9%、90.4%,较同期分别+7.6 pct、+4.2pct,得益于国内工作量饱满且衔接紧密,以及海外挪威半潜式平台新合同的工作量贡献 [2] 油田技术服务板块 - Q1技术服务市场规模保持平稳,推进关键核心技术攻关,推动科研成果体系化应用提速提效,做好自主技术产品的智能制造,主要业务线作业量同比保持增长,总体收入规模保持增长趋势 [3] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|44,108.62|48,301.58|54,005.11|57,815.35|60,061.37| |增长率(%)|23.70|9.51|11.81|7.06|3.88| |EBITDA(百万元)|10,302.20|11,195.79|9,714.38|9,838.34|10,202.50| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|3,013.25|3,136.99|4,027.70|4,244.69|4,426.34| |增长率(%)|28.08|4.11|28.39|5.39|4.28| |EPS(元/股)|0.63|0.66|0.84|0.89|0.93| |市盈率(P/E)|21.05|20.22|15.74|14.94|14.33| |市净率(P/B)|1.52|1.45|1.34|1.26|1.19| |市销率(P/S)|1.44|1.31|1.17|1.10|1.06| |EV/EBITDA|7.13|6.62|6.30|5.06|4.73| [8] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|17,625.10|8,920.21|13,897.66|13,320.59|11,954.55| |负债合计|40,989.73|38,523.13|44,855.59|44,469.09|48,894.27| |股本|4,771.59|4,771.59|4,771.59|4,771.59|4,771.59| |股东权益合计|42,256.11|44,424.54|48,149.72|51,475.79|54,944.90| |现金流量表(百万元) - 营运资金变动|6,358.15|997.96|(945.81)|7,982.89|(3,191.96)| |现金流量表(百万元) - 长期投资|75.82|129.84|100.00|100.00|100.00| |现金流量表(百万元) - 股权融资|(868.75)|(605.00)|(173.02)|(635.46)|(587.96)| [9] 资产负债表和利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|6,539.08|5,974.13|12,927.95|25,890.11|28,344.46| |应收票据及应收账款|14,241.11|14,113.64|15,889.20|13,018.48|17,012.21| |预付账款|92.52|148.89|164.94|150.26|173.94| |存货|2,370.18|2,296.49|5,082.55|1,563.98|5,577.83| |其他|5,351.05|6,133.03|6,727.05|6,367.48|6,482.19| |流动资产合计|28,593.94|28,666.19|40,791.69|46,990.30|57,590.63| |长期股权投资|1,064.20|1,194.04|1,294.04|1,394.04|1,494.04| |固定资产|43,521.88|44,074.96|43,798.49|42,709.73|41,036.09| |在建工程|2,744.75|3,499.20|1,999.60|1,249.80|1,049.88| |无形资产|602.61|593.95|472.40|350.85|229.29| |其他|5,042.30|4,919.31|4,088.68|2,504.64|2,003.92| |非流动资产合计|52,975.73|54,281.48|51,653.22|48,209.06|45,813.23| |资产总计|83,245.83|82,947.66|93,005.31|95,944.88|103,839.17| |短期借款|5,426.19|2,515.94|5,000.00|5,000.00|5,000.00| |应付票据及应付账款|13,261.51|15,415.20|19,020.33|18,200.21|23,144.94| |其他|4,676.93|11,671.78|6,937.60|7,948.29|8,794.78| |流动负债合计|23,364.63|29,602.92|30,957.93|31,148.50|36,939.72| |长期借款|2,806.39|1,674.79|2,000.00|2,000.00|1,800.00| |应付债券|12,182.78|5,142.56|9,782.40|9,035.91|7,986.96| |其他|2,635.93|2,102.85|2,115.25|2,284.68|2,167.60| |少数股东权益|613.09|627.37|966.85|1,321.64|1,692.31| |股本|4,771.59|4,771.59|4,771.59|4,771.59|4,771.59| |资本公积|12,361.82|12,361.82|12,361.82|12,361.82|12,361.82| |留存收益|37,456.93|39,591.89|42,411.28|45,382.56|48,480.99| |其他|(12,947.32)|(12,928.14)|(12,361.82)|(12,361.82)|(12,361.82)| |股东权益合计|42,256.11|44,424.54|48,149.72|51,475.79|54,944.90| |负债和股东权益总计|83,245.83|82,947.66|93,005.31|95,944.88|103,839.17| |利润表(百万元) - 营业收入|44,108.62|48,301.58|54,005.11|57,815.35|60,061.37| |利润表(百万元) - 营业成本|37,103.69|40,722.17|44,274.26|47,854.98|49,614.18| |利润表(百万元) - 营业税金及附加|66.38|83.48|135.01|115.63|120.12| |利润表(百万元) - 销售费用|5.55|3.22|5.40|5.78|6.01| |利润表(百万元) - 管理费用|1,036.45|1,132.61|1,404.13|1,445.38|1,441.47| |利润表(百万元) - 研发费用|1,253.94|1,384.94|1,523.43|1,675.78|1,843.36| |利润表(百万元) - 财务费用|852.81|624.18|739.33|635.46|587.96| |利润表(百万元) - 资产/信用减值损失|(10.05)|18.61|(277.07)|(309.80)|(346.39)| |利润表(百万元) - 公允价值变动收益|71.14|43.10|53.74|59.18|58.41| |利润表(百万元) - 投资净收益|193.26|219.98|323.07|291.46|266.36| |利润表(百万元) - 其他|(726.08)|(766.32)|(199.48)|(81.68)|43.24| |利润表(百万元) - 营业利润|4,261.53|4,835.59|6,023.28|6,123.17|6,426.65| |利润表(百万元) - 营业外收入|114.89|293.20|222.61|208.74|183.29| |利润表(百万元) - 营业外支出|133.55|461.46|180.37|199.28|213.93| |利润表(百万元) - 利润总额|4,242.87|4,667.34|6,065.52|6,132.63|6,396.01| |利润表(百万元) - 所得税|960.24|1,268.24|1,698.35|1,533.16|1,599.00| |利润表(百万元) - 净利润|3,282.63|3,399.10|4,367.17|4,599.48|4,797.01| |利润表(百万元) - 少数股东损益|269.37|262.11|339.48|354.79|370.67| |利润表(百万元) - 归属于母公司净利润|3,013.25|3,136.99|4,027.70|4,244.69|4,426.34| |利润表(百万元) - 每股收益(元)|0.63|0.66|0.84|0.89|0.93| [10] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入|23.70%|9.51%|11.81%|7.06%|3.88%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|42.06%|13.47%|24.56%|1.66%|4.96%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润|28.08%|4.11%|28.39%|5.39%|4.28%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|15.88%|15.69%|18.02%|17.23%|17.39%| |获利能力 - 净利率|6.83%|6.49%|7.46%|7.34%|7.37%| |获利能力 - ROE|7.24%|7.16%|8.54%|8.46%|8.31%| |获利能力 - ROIC|8.37%|8.76%|10.78%