报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/黑色家电，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 25Q1公司营收133.75亿元同比+5.3%，归母净利润5.54亿元同比+18.6%，扣非归母净利润4.52亿元同比+19.5% [1] - 行业短期承压但韧性犹存，公司全球产能布局完备，有领先显示技术与优势供应链资源，有望攫取更多市场机会 [1] - 公司产品结构持续优化，大尺寸化和高端化趋势延续，预计25Q1国内Mini LED销售延续较好增长，带动Q1整体毛利率同比提升0.6pct至15.9% [2] - 25Q1公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为6.5%/1.9%/4.2%/0.0%，分别同比+0.8/+0.3/+0.0/-0.2pct，综合影响下归母净利率同比+0.5pct至4.1% [2] - 看好公司中长期平稳向好发展，预计25 - 27年归母净利润26.5/30.3/33.9亿元，对应25 - 27年PE分别为12.2X/10.6X/9.5X，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|53,615.56|58,530.24|64,744.17|71,235.52|77,927.69| |增长率(%)|17.22|9.17|10.62|10.03|9.39| |EBITDA(百万元)|5,786.55|6,145.00|4,387.21|4,899.51|5,414.11| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|2,095.85|2,246.22|2,650.34|3,028.04|3,393.12| |增长率(%)|24.82|7.17|17.99|14.25|12.06| |EPS(元/股)|1.61|1.72|2.03|2.32|2.60| |市盈率(P/E)|15.38|14.35|12.16|10.64|9.50| |市净率(P/B)|1.71|1.65|1.50|1.36|1.22| |市销率(P/S)|0.60|0.55|0.50|0.45|0.41| |EV/EBITDA|3.19|2.58|5.21|4.27|3.80| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,304.97百万股，流通A股股本1,295.09百万股 [7] - A股总市值32,232.81百万元，流通A股市值31,988.83百万元 [7] - 每股净资产15.50元，资产负债率42.39%，一年内最高/最低29.24/14.28元 [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|2,271.18|2,683.20|2,892.94|5,698.84|6,234.22| |应收票据及应收账款|9,674.90|11,616.60|11,433.08|13,927.60|13,815.57| |预付账款|81.38|95.45|118.62|116.36|140.16| |存货|5,831.23|5,646.62|7,141.73|6,895.80|8,429.04| |其他|17,594.55|16,932.94|16,165.64|16,155.30|16,178.02| |流动资产合计|35,453.23|36,974.81|37,751.99|42,793.89|44,797.00| |长期股权投资|782.67|711.35|826.05|940.75|1,055.45| |固定资产|4,464.23|4,469.75|5,229.21|5,910.02|6,512.20| |在建工程|332.26|437.50|635.70|833.90|1,032.10| |无形资产|1,065.83|1,076.65|1,049.37|1,014.73|972.72| |其他|3,005.62|2,983.65|3,508.22|3,933.76|4,361.79| |非流动资产合计|9,650.61|9,678.91|11,248.55|12,633.16|13,934.25| |资产总计|45,106.59|46,655.34|49,000.55|55,427.05|58,731.24| |短期借款|703.44|682.67|648.53|1,230.42|1,125.37| |应付票据及应付账款|11,982.22|13,598.52|13,562.69|16,251.66|16,296.79| |其他|5,301.47|5,744.63|6,449.85|7,120.99|7,409.31| |流动负债合计|17,987.13|20,025.82|20,661.07|24,603.08|24,831.47| |长期借款|637.77|353.41|335.74|318.96|303.01| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|854.85|851.17|803.24|803.24|803.24| |非流动负债合计|1,492.62|1,204.58|1,138.98|1,122.20|1,106.25| |负债合计|19,874.34|21,656.34|21,800.05|25,725.27|25,937.71| |少数股东权益|6,337.58|5,420.83|5,676.58|5,993.08|6,384.29| |股本|1,305.40|1,304.97|1,304.97|1,304.97|1,304.97| |资本公积|2,460.56|2,289.87|2,289.87|2,289.87|2,289.87| |留存收益|15,215.87|16,411.43|18,176.91|20,361.70|23,062.24| |其他|(87.16)|(428.10)|(247.84)|(247.84)|(247.84)| |股东权益合计|25,232.26|24,999.00|27,200.49|29,701.78|32,793.53| |负债和股东权益总计|45,106.59|46,655.34|49,000.55|55,427.05|58,731.24| [11] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|53,615.56|58,530.24|64,744.17|71,235.52|77,927.69| |营业成本|44,534.02|49,365.55|54,279.42|59,581.49|65,045.37| |营业税金及附加|257.78|184.89|204.52|225.03|246.17| |销售费用|3,607.42|3,420.69|3,764.42|4,141.85|4,554.33| |管理费用|934.03|1,040.23|1,150.66|1,266.03|1,384.97| |研发费用|2,378.99|2,374.45|2,613.59|2,875.63|3,145.78| |财务费用|(11.64)|52.25|57.80|63.60|69.57| |资产/信用减值损失|(128.06)|(204.93)|(187.64)|(160.00)|(142.00)| |公允价值变动收益|77.85|181.62|120.00|130.00|140.00| |投资净收益|513.70|396.14|400.00|420.00|441.00| |其他|(1,312.64)|(1,144.64)|(382.00)|(401.10)|(421.15)| |营业利润|2,764.11|2,863.97|3,388.10|3,872.98|4,341.65| |营业外收入|54.48|65.34|60.00|60.00|60.00| |营业外支出|36.97|45.75|45.75|45.75|45.75| |利润总额|2,781.62|2,883.57|3,402.35|3,887.23|4,355.90| |所得税|231.82|311.96|368.08|420.54|471.24| |净利润|2,549.80|2,571.61|3,034.27|3,466.70|3,884.66| |少数股东损益|453.94|325.40|383.94|438.65|491.54| |归属于母公司净利润|2,095.85|2,246.22|2,650.34|3,028.04|3,393.12| |每股收益（元）|1.61|1.72|2.03|2.32|2.60| [11] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|17.22%|9.17%|10.62%|10.03%|9.39%| |营业利润|18.13%|3.61%|18.30%|14.31%|12.10%| |归属于母公司净利润|24.82%|7.17%|17.99%|14.25%|12.06%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|16.94%|15.66%|16.16%|16.36%|16.53%| |净利率|3.91%|3.84%|4.09%|4.25%|4.35%| |ROE|11.09%|11.47%|12.31%|12.77%|12.85%| |ROIC|38.99%|25.76%|32.70%|28.87%|31.78%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|44.06%|46.42%|44.49%|46.41%|44.16%| |净负债率|-1.91%|-4.83%|-5.83%|-12.88%|-13.67%| |流动比率|1.93|1.81|1.83|1.74|1.80| |速动比率|1.61|1.53|1.48|1.46|1.46| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|6.04|5.50|5.62|5.62|5.62| |存货周转率|10.70|10.20|10.13|10.15|10.17| |总资产周转率|1.33|1.28|1.35|1.36|1.37| [11] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|2,549.80|2,571.61|2,650.34|3,028.04|3,393.12| |折旧摊销|818.30|920.76|988.02|1,074.03|1