报告公司投资评级 - 行业为建筑材料/装修建材，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 24年减值冲回较多利润，现金分红大比例提升，关注公司中长期投资价值 [1] - 原材料价格下行或给盈利能力提供支撑，若后续沥青降价趋势延续，毛利率仍具备较好的提升空间 [2] - 盈利及控费能力稳步提升，现金流持续改善 [3] - 公司有望凭借自身渠道优势不断提升防水行业市占率，应收款减值风险有望进一步下降，渠道下沉及收入结构优化或带动盈利能力及现金流延续改善，维持“买入”评级 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|7,944.39|6,828.80|7,574.35|8,364.08|9,233.14| |增长率(%)|3.70|(14.04)|10.92|10.43|10.39| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,016.48|946.17|828.02|911.26|989.10| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|(337.60)|44.07|212.04|300.66|424.35| |增长率(%)|(289.47)|(113.05)|381.13|41.80|41.14| |EPS(元/股)|(0.30)|0.04|0.19|0.27|0.38| |市盈率(P/E)|(15.49)|118.63|24.66|17.39|12.32| |市净率(P/B)|1.04|1.07|1.01|1.00|1.01| |市销率(P/S)|0.66|0.77|0.69|0.63|0.57| |EV/EBITDA|6.45|5.39|5.94|5.26|5.11| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,109.97百万股，流通A股股本886.92百万股，A股总市值5,227.95百万元，流通A股市值4,177.37百万元，每股净资产4.41元，资产负债率64.41%，一年内最高/最低7.17/3.82元 [8] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|2,328.97|3,415.25|1,514.87|1,749.26|1,846.63| |应收票据及应收账款|4,161.88|4,090.63|3,904.51|4,924.24|4,565.37| |预付账款|275.09|166.14|213.57|242.64|272.07| |存货|441.92|501.98|459.70|609.25|586.54| |其他|2,180.66|1,370.20|1,726.63|1,628.66|1,962.26| |流动资产合计|9,388.52|9,544.19|7,819.29|9,154.06|9,232.86| |长期股权投资|31.79|30.01|30.01|30.01|30.01| |固定资产|2,378.47|2,391.72|2,469.68|2,559.33|2,521.10| |在建工程|40.39|98.50|119.10|134.55|93.82| |无形资产|174.85|276.06|259.02|241.98|224.94| |其他|1,339.76|1,328.16|1,096.78|1,254.57|1,225.91| |非流动资产合计|3,965.27|4,124.44|3,974.58|4,220.44|4,095.78| |资产总计|13,780.58|14,043.62|11,793.86|13,374.49|13,328.64| |短期借款|1,515.68|1,377.57|817.84|500.00|945.01| |应付票据及应付账款|3,197.69|3,214.40|3,357.03|3,557.33|3,855.38| |其他|868.75|1,048.02|472.13|1,615.17|926.99| |流动负债合计|5,582.13|5,639.99|4,647.00|5,672.50|5,727.39| |长期借款|318.35|487.36|200.00|205.09|200.00| |应付债券|2,170.80|2,243.05|1,471.28|1,961.71|1,892.01| |其他|223.24|210.93|212.90|215.69|213.17| |非流动负债合计|2,712.40|2,941.33|1,884.18|2,382.49|2,305.19| |负债合计|8,665.43|9,065.12|6,531.18|8,054.99|8,032.57| |少数股东权益|81.32|84.58|79.34|76.38|95.60| |股本|1,177.29|1,109.97|1,109.97|1,109.97|1,109.97| |资本公积|2,014.33|1,611.64|2,062.83|2,088.26|2,088.26| |留存收益|2,113.53|2,068.56|2,115.10|2,135.60|2,032.74| |其他|(271.32)|103.75|(104.55)|(90.71)|(30.50)| |股东权益合计|5,115.14|4,978.50|5,262.69|5,319.51|5,296.06| |负债和股东权益总计|13,780.58|14,043.62|11,793.86|13,374.49|13,328.64| [12][13] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|7,944.39|6,828.80|7,574.35|8,364.08|9,233.14| |营业成本|6,262.38|5,342.24|5,770.03|6,382.48|7,022.57| |营业税金及附加|49.79|43.21|47.92|52.92|58.42| |销售费用|628.55|619.26|681.69|736.04|794.05| |管理费用|308.12|360.87|386.29|418.20|452.42| |研发费用|319.45|275.15|302.97|334.56|369.33| |财务费用|82.28|75.37|26.82|19.17|15.81| |资产/信用减值损失|(823.15)|(309.77)|(174.21)|(146.37)|(129.26)| |公允价值变动收益|12.76|152.99|83.42|69.00|17.00| |投资净收益|(0.20)|10.59|2.81|2.81|2.81| |其他|1,546.42|224.76|47.55|37.95|(5.48)| |营业利润|(442.01)|34.12|223.09|308.20|416.57| |营业外收入|16.58|24.25|15.15|16.73|18.47| |营业外支出|4.03|3.03|3.03|3.35|3.69| |利润总额|(429.46)|55.35|235.20|321.59|431.35| |所得税|(86.90)|23.72|47.04|64.32|86.27| |净利润|(342.56)|31.62|188.16|257.27|345.08| |少数股东损益|(4.96)|(12.45)|(23.87)|(43.39)|(79.27)| |归属于母公司净利润|(337.60)|44.07|212.04|300.66|424.35| |每股收益（元）|(0.30)|0.04|0.19|0.27|0.38| [12][13] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动|(677.85)|(521.91)|(193.52)|(5.57)|(289.15)| |长期投资|(1.17)|(1.78)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(186.73)|(183.73)|96.02|(200.45)|(368.52)| |净利润|(342.56)|31.62|212.04|300.66|424.35| |折旧摊销|248.39|278.62|318.48|361.93|396.01| |财务费用|94.68|100.22|26.82|19.17|15.81| |投资损失|(17.46)|(21.76)|(2.81)|(2.81)|(2.81)| |营运资金变动|(677.85)|(521.91)|(193.52)|(5.57)|(289.15)| |其它|886.63|448.80|59.55|25.61|(62.27)| |经营活动现金流|191.83|315.59|420.55|698.99|481.92| |资本支出|334.57|467.81|398.03|447.21|302.52| |长期投资|(1.17)|(1.78)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|(2,101.41)|400.60|(921.76)|(1,039.11)|(642.66)| |投资活动现金流|(1,768.01)|866.62|(523.73)|(591.90)|(340.14)| |债权融资|1,851.39|15.11|(1,893.22)|327.76|324.10| |股权融资|(186.73)|(183.73)|96.02|(200.45)|(368.52)| |其他|0.25|(683.76)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|1,664.91|(852.38)|(1,797.19)|127.31|(44.41)| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额|88.72|329.83|(1,900.38)|234.39|97.37| [13] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|3.70%|-14.04%|10.92%|10.43%|10.39%| |营业利润|-330.85%|-107.72%|553.80%|38.15%|35.16%| |归属于母公司净利润|-289.47%|-113.05%|381.13%|41.80%|41.14%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|21.17%|21.77%|23.82%|23.69%|23.94%| |净利率|-4.25%|0.65%|2.80%|3.59%|4