报告公司投资评级 - 买入（维持）[3] 报告的核心观点 - 量增叠加价差修复使2025年一季度业绩表现亮眼，烯烃业务因产能扩增和价差修复表现突出，焦炭业务受地产低迷影响承压；煤价下跌使煤制烯烃成本释压，竞争优势有望放大；内蒙项目逐步兑现，新疆等后续项目成长性充沛；盈利能力显著提升，期间费用有所下降；维持2025 - 2027年盈利预测和“买入”评级 [6] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 公司基本状况 - 总股本73.3336亿股，流通股本73.3336亿股，市价15.65元，市值1147.6708亿元，流通市值1147.6708亿元 [1] 公司盈利预测及估值 |指标|2023A|2024A|2025E|2026E|2027E| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |营业收入（百万元）|29,136|32,983|53,617|58,640|62,967| |增长率yoy%|2%|13%|63%|9%|7%| |归母净利润（百万元）|5,651|6,338|12,475|14,046|15,471| |增长率yoy%|-10%|12%|97%|13%|10%| |每股收益（元）|0.77|0.86|1.70|1.92|2.11| |每股现金流量|1.19|1.21|1.80|2.41|2.73| |净资产收益率|15%|15%|23%|21%|19%| |P/E|20.2|18.0|10.3|9.1|8.3| |P/B|3.0|2.7|2.4|1.9|1.6|[3] 2025年一季报情况 - 营业收入107.7亿元，同比+30.9%，环比+23.7%；归母净利润24.4亿元，同比+71.5%，环比+35.3%；扣非归母净利润26.0亿元，同比+75.3%，环比+38.6% [6] 业务表现 - 烯烃业务：2025Q1聚乙烯和聚丙烯分别实现营业收入36.14和32.05亿元，同比+76.7%和+83.6%，环比+64.2%和+41.2%；产能扩增和价差修复是表现亮眼主因，原料煤采购价同比下降，聚乙烯和聚丙烯价差增扩，产销量同环比大幅增长 [6] - 焦炭业务：受地产低迷影响，2025Q1价格、销量同比-29.6%和-2.9%，环比-18.6%和-4.2% [6] 成本与价格情况 - 截至4月25日，内蒙古坑口原煤价格和秦皇岛港动力煤价较2025Q1均价下跌226和247元/吨，较2024Q4均价下跌177和168元/吨；国内聚乙烯和聚丙烯价差较2024Q4均值-425和+868元/吨，较2025Q1均值-513和+325元/吨 [6] 项目进展 - 内蒙古烯烃项目三条线分别于2024年11月、2025年1月中旬和2025年3月底投产，一线、二线已达设计产能，烯烃产能增扩至520万吨；宁东四期烯烃项目场地平整等工程按计划完成；新疆烯烃项目取得环评、安评等支持性专家评审意见；宁东五期和内蒙二期是重点规划项目 [6] 盈利能力与费用情况 - 2025Q1毛利率和净利率分别约35.4%和22.6%，同比+6.6pct和+5.4pct，环比+2.2pct和+3.4pct；期间费用率约6.0%，同比-0.1pct，管理费用率（不含研发）、销售费用率、财务费用率和研发费用率约2.6%、0.2%、2.2%和1.0%，同比-0.1pct、持平、+0.3pct和-0.2pct [6] 财务报表预测 |报表类型|会计年度|货币资金|应收票据|应收账款|预付账款|存货|合同资产|其他流动资产|流动资产合计|其他长期投资|长期股权投资|固定资产|在建工程|无形资产|其他非流动资产|非流动资产合计|资产合计|短期借款|应付票据|应付账款|预收款项|合同负债|其他应付款|一年内到期的非流动负债|其他流动负债|流动负债合计|长期借款|应付债券|其他非流动负债|非流动负债合计|负债合计|归属母公司所有者权益|少数股东权益|所有者权益合计|负债和股东权益| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | |资产负债表|2024A|2,477|0|20|266|1,575|0|447|4,786|0|1,655|43,216|29,934|5,027|4,948|84,780|89,566|760|414|1,075|0|882|9,921|6,360|1,838|21,250|21,513|0|3,797|25,310|46,560|43,006|0|43,006|89,566| |资产负债表|2025E|4,154| |74|420|2,490| |933|8,071| |1,655|51,432|30,034|4,790|4,213|92,124|100,195|836|1,394|1,597| |1,434|6,517|3,512|2,345|17,636|25,103| |3,442|28,545|46,181|54,015| |54,015|100,195| |资产负债表|2026E|2,346|0|74|460|2,723|0|1,020|6,631|0|1,655|69,301|30,034|4,604|4,533|110,127|116,759|2,474|1,449|1,746|0|1,569|6,517|3,161|2,377|19,293|28,334|0|3,125|31,459|50,752|66,007|0|66,007|116,759| |资产负债表|2027E|9,069|0|83|489|2,896|0|1,095|13,635|0|1,655|76,359|29,934|4,324|4,871|117,143|130,778|1,011|1,459|1,857|0|1,685|6,517|2,845|2,459|17,833|30,679|0|2,841|33,521|51,354|79,424|0|79,424|130,778| |利润表|2024A| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |营业收入32,983|营业成本22,050|税金及附加645|销售费用117|管理费用875|研发费用756|财务费用744|信用减值损失 -14|资产减值损失0|公允价值变动收益0|投资收益16|其他收益31|营业利润7,828|营业外收入10|营业外支出552|利润总额7,286|所得税948|净利润6,338|少数股东损益0|归属母公司净利润6,338|NOPLAT6,985|EPS（摊薄）0.86| |利润表|2025E| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |营业收入53,617|营业成本34,857|税金及附加804|销售费用161|管理费用1,394|研发费用965|财务费用647|信用减值损失 -12|资产减值损失0|公允价值变动收益0|投资收益16|其他收益30|营业利润14,824|营业外收入8|营业外支出490|利润总额14,342|所得税1,867|净利润12,475|少数股东损益0|归属母公司净利润12,475|NOPLAT13,037|EPS（摊薄）1.70| |利润表|2026E| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |营业收入58,640|营业成本38,123|税金及附加792|销售费用147|管理费用1,349|研发费用880|财务费用759|信用减值损失 -11|资产减值损失0|公允价值变动收益0|投资收益27|其他收益30|营业利润16,649|营业外收入14|营业外支出515|利润总额16,148|所得税2,102|净利润14,046|少数股东损益0|归属母公司净利润14,046|NOPLAT14,706|EPS（摊薄）1.92| |利润表|2027E| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |营业收入62,967|营业成本40,538|税金及附加882|销售费用173|管理费用1,385|研发费用944|财务费用797|信用减值损失 -10|资产减值损失0|公允价值变动收益0|投资收益27|其他收益30|营业利润18,310|营业外收入16|营业外支出540|利润总额17,786|所得税2,315|净利润15,471|少数股东损益0|归属母公司净利润15,471|NOPLAT16,164|EPS（摊薄）2.11| |现金流量表|2024A|经营活动现金流8,898|现金收益9,262|存货影响 -283|经营性应收影响 -72|经营性应付影响3,774|其他影响 -3,782|投资活动现金流 -11,529|资本支出 -19,599|股权投资 -28|其他长期资产变化8,098|融资活动现金流4,246|借款增加7,638|股利及利息支付 -3,206|股东融资149|其他影响 -335| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 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