报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级，当前股价对应2025/2026/2027年PE分别为9.6/8.5/7.7倍，维持2025/2026/2027年归母净利润预测为25/29/31亿 [3] - 6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2025Q1海油工程利润率水平持续提升，营业收入达51亿元，同比-10.15%，归母净利润为5.4亿元，同比+13.85%，毛利率16.15%，同比增加6.24pct，净利率为10.76%，同比增加2.26pct，可能因业务结构优化、降本提质增效显著及成本费用管控能力加强 [1] - 2025年Q1工作量饱满，海上安装工作量明显提升，陆地建造导管架10座（同比-9座）、组块2座（同比-5座），海上安装导管架11座（同比增加2座）、组块3座（同比-3座），铺设海底管线79.8公里（同比增加10.9公里）和海底电缆6.6公里，建造业务完成钢材加工量10.97万结构吨，同比-19.34%，投入船天0.59万天，同比+22.9% [2] - 2025年Q1新签合同35.63亿元，同比-45%，在手订单为384亿，国内主要承揽蓬莱19 - 3油田1/2/3/8/9区二次调整等工程，海外主要承揽道达尔ALK海管更换等工程 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|30,752.04|29,954.42|31,973.28|32,612.75|32,612.75| |增长率(%)|4.75|(2.59)|6.74|2.00|0.00| |EBITDA(百万元)|4,519.36|4,688.86|4,523.38|5,037.17|5,373.63| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,620.51|2,161.40|2,509.46|2,859.53|3,143.83| |增长率(%)|11.19|33.38|16.10|13.95|9.94| |EPS(元/股)|0.37|0.49|0.57|0.65|0.71| |市盈率(P/E)|14.92|11.19|9.64|8.46|7.69| |市净率(P/B)|0.98|0.92|0.87|0.82|0.77| |市销率(P/S)|0.79|0.81|0.76|0.74|0.74| |EV/EBITDA|2.58|1.42|1.44|0.65|0.04| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本4,421.35百万股，流通A股股本4,421.35百万股，A股总市值24,184.81百万元，流通A股市值24,184.81百万元，每股净资产6.06元，资产负债率41.38%，一年内最高/最低6.58/4.75元 [5] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|844.53|1,530.92|1,176.12|1,280.31|1,338.47| |负债合计|16,473.31|19,955.70|15,127.87|13,909.37|15,629.76| |股本|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35| |股东权益合计|26,778.35|28,275.18|29,837.41|31,531.09|33,416.22| |现金流量表(百万元)：营运资金变动|158.71|757.69|(2,161.03)|1,037.76|(637.48)| |长期投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(735.60)|(39.53)|(949.98)|(1,168.16)|(1,261.23)| [9] 资产负债表和利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)：货币资金|4,320.81|6,067.04|6,346.21|11,223.86|13,532.68| |应收票据及应收账款|6,147.40|7,565.75|4,868.30|2,378.98|4,868.30| |预付账款|407.45|958.45|408.68|961.61|392.56| |存货|982.79|754.10|1,074.16|758.33|1,052.60| |其他|9,926.14|10,773.76|14,893.15|14,800.24|14,690.43| |流动资产合计|21,784.60|26,119.11|27,590.50|30,123.02|34,536.56| |长期股权投资|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |固定资产|12,817.58|12,446.87|11,045.82|9,644.77|8,243.73| |在建工程|466.52|593.30|793.30|993.30|1,193.30| |无形资产|2,235.80|2,172.12|2,081.97|1,991.82|1,901.68| |其他|3,135.05|3,998.94|3,453.68|2,687.54|3,170.72| |非流动资产合计|18,654.95|19,211.23|17,374.78|15,317.44|14,509.42| |资产总计|43,251.66|48,230.88|44,965.28|45,440.46|49,045.98| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|300.00|1,300.00|900.00| |应付票据及应付账款|12,528.76|13,260.23|11,323.68|7,156.88|11,106.26| |其他|2,093.61|2,846.45|2,328.08|4,172.18|2,285.04| |流动负债合计|14,622.37|16,106.68|13,951.75|12,629.06|14,291.30| |长期借款|220.01|130.00|436.00|436.00|436.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|624.52|1,400.91|740.12|844.31|902.47| |少数股东权益|1,983.76|2,008.66|2,010.31|2,011.69|2,013.21| |股本|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35|4,421.35| |资本公积|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02|4,248.02| |留存收益|16,026.70|17,538.16|19,043.83|20,759.55|22,645.85| |其他|98.52|58.99|113.89|90.47|87.78| |股东权益合计|26,778.35|28,275.18|29,837.41|31,531.09|33,416.22| |负债和股东权益总计|43,251.66|48,230.88|44,965.28|45,440.46|49,045.98| |利润表(百万元)：营业收入|30,752.04|29,954.42|31,973.28|32,612.75|32,612.75| |营业成本|27,446.26|26,274.80|27,656.89|27,720.84|27,394.71| |营业税金及附加|142.13|139.52|148.93|146.76|156.54| |销售费用|20.63|34.44|41.57|48.92|48.92| |管理费用|322.62|360.60|328.00|358.74|326.13| |研发费用|1,186.28|1,227.34|1,214.98|1,239.28|1,239.28| |财务费用|(56.71)|(146.04)|(60.75)|6.02|(13.19)| |资产/信用减值损失|(243.22)|(28.25)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |公允价值变动收益|113.51|106.97|24.00|22.50|0.00| |投资净收益|262.32|201.54|425.27|425.27|435.27| |其他|(344.96)|(853.09)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|1,903.17|2,636.58|3,092.93|3,539.96|3,895.62| |营业外收入|36.23|51.06|50.00|40.00|40.00| |营业外支出|27.46|9.99|2.67|2.67|2.67| |利润总额|1,911.94|2,677.66|3,140.26|3,577.30|3,932.96| |所得税|281.60|491.36|628.05|715.46|786.59| |净利润|1,630.34|2,186.29|2,509.46|2,859.53|3,143.83| |少数股东损益|9.83|24.90|2.76|2.30|2.53| |归属于母公司净利润|1,620.51|2,161.40|2,509.46|2,859.53|3,143.83| |主要财务比率：成长能力 - 营业收入|4.75%|-2.59%|6.74%|2.00%|0.00%| |营业利润|11.10%|38.54%|17.31%|14.45%|10.05%| |归属于母公司净利润|11.19%|33.38%|16.10%|13.95%|9.94%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|10.75%|12.28%|13.50%|15.00%|16.00%| |净利率|5.27%|7.22%|7.85%|8.77%|9.64%| |ROE|6.54%|8.23%|9.02%|9.69%|10.01%| |ROIC|11.63%|19.93%|27.76%|27.94%|36.16%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|38.09%|41.38%|33.64%|30.61%|31.87%| |净负债率|-15.11%|-19.21%|-18.80%|-30.09%|-36.50%| |流动比率|1.57|1.58|1.98|2.39|2.42| |速动比率|1.51|1.53|1.90|2.33|2.34| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|4.95|4.37|5.14|9.00|9.00| |存货周转率|26.93|34.49|34.98|35.59|36.02| |总资产周转率|0.72|0.65|0.69|0.72|0.69| |每股指标（元） - 每股收益|0.37|0.49|0.57|0.65