报告公司投资评级 - 行业为建筑材料/装修建材，6个月评级为增持（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 2025年Q1濮耐股份经营处于相对底部区间，营收13.4亿元同比+3.17%，归母净利润0.55亿元同比-15.91%，扣非归母净利润0.46亿元同比-16.05% [1] - 美国工厂订单加速导入，对等关税落地后美国耐材有涨价预期，叠加湿法冶金领域开拓有成效，2025年业绩或进入兑现期，预计2025 - 2027年归母净利润3/4.2/5.7亿元，维持“增持”评级 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 利润率与费用率 - 2025Q1毛利率17.95%同比-1.75pct，期间费用率降低2.26pct至11.88%，销售、管理、研发、财务费用率分别为4.36%、5.38%、2.94%、 - 0.8%，同比分别+0.19、+0.03、 - 0.79、 - 1.7pct，财务费用率降低因Q1外币汇率波动汇兑收益增加 [2] - 本期资产+信用减值损失1984万元同比多计提1463万元，信用资产减值损失增长因销售规模扩大及销售回款率降低，净利率4.16%同比-0.73pct [2] - 2025Q1 CFO净流出0.32亿元比上年同期多流出0.24亿元，因Q1支付相关税费及现金支付货款增加，收现比、付现比分别为84.17%、76.52%，同比分别+8.84pct、+11.61pct [2] 业务经营情况 - 国内耐材下游钢铁等需求低迷，国内耐材业务有压力，但海外耐材和活性氧化镁业务放量有望增强业绩稳定性 [3] - 2024年海外收入占比达28%，美国和塞尔维亚工厂投产运行，美国工厂订单增加，两工厂步入正轨将保障海外业务开展提升国际竞争力 [3] - 公司在湿法冶金提镍提钴高效沉淀剂市场突破，入围多家客户合格供应商，现有5万吨活性氧化镁产能基础上在建6万吨生产线预计近期投产，后续按需扩产，预计湿法业务今年带来上亿净利润贡献 [3] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|5,472.92|5,191.96|6,006.75|6,814.92|7,705.43| |增长率(%)|10.88| - 5.13|15.69|13.45|13.07| |EBITDA(百万元)|656.20|570.83|559.86|704.71|890.24| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|247.70|135.06|298.96|417.56|571.73| |增长率(%)|7.87| - 45.48|121.36|39.67|36.92| |EPS(元/股)|0.25|0.13|0.30|0.41|0.57| |市盈率(P/E)|21.78|39.95|18.05|12.92|9.44| |市净率(P/B)|1.58|1.59|1.46|1.35|1.23| |市销率(P/S)|0.99|1.04|0.90|0.79|0.70| |EV/EBITDA|7.16|10.70|10.95|9.12|6.59| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,010.43百万股，流通A股股本825.56百万股，A股总市值5,395.70百万元，流通A股市值4,408.48百万元 [6] - 每股净资产3.39元，资产负债率58.72%，一年内最高/最低6.45/3.07元 [6] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|1,621.01|1,102.29|861.73|917.67|712.77| |负债合计|4,675.32|4,742.18|4,720.88|5,492.42|5,064.30| |股本|1,010.37|1,010.42|1,010.43|1,010.43|1,010.43| |股东权益合计|3,544.54|3,522.66|3,808.02|4,116.31|4,537.92| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动| - 493.49|56.04|123.91| - 552.86|166.99| |长期投资|1.45|0.34|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资| - 58.70| - 73.27| - 19.70| - 117.79| - 161.79| [9] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|619.58|335.17|540.61|613.34|693.49| |应收票据及应收账款|2,081.05|2,249.73|2,155.22|2,690.95|2,446.00| |预付账款|83.86|137.71|44.58|158.65|62.85| |存货|1,928.08|1,915.86|2,172.24|2,408.05|2,567.19| |其他|451.72|492.50|611.50|667.76|678.49| |流动资产合计|5,164.29|5,130.97|5,524.14|6,538.76|6,448.02| |长期股权投资|5.62|5.96|5.96|5.96|5.96| |固定资产|1,392.25|1,555.78|1,578.57|1,613.36|1,644.01| |在建工程|386.19|264.57|274.68|287.02|301.92| |无形资产|245.31|243.92|246.67|251.03|255.62| |其他|888.92|910.11|898.89|912.59|946.69| |非流动资产合计|2,918.29|2,980.34|3,004.76|3,069.97|3,154.20| |资产总计|8,219.86|8,264.85|8,528.90|9,608.73|9,602.22| |短期借款|305.53|629.20|915.36|1,246.22|1,009.81| |应付票据及应付账款|2,227.16|2,315.12|2,429.76|2,817.85|2,804.85| |其他|476.69|661.55|514.03|510.67|536.87| |流动负债合计|3,009.37|3,605.87|3,859.15|4,574.74|4,351.53| |长期借款|933.80|387.00|167.00|209.48|0.00| |应付债券|630.21|645.57|636.73|649.19|652.77| |其他|57.00|69.71|58.00|59.00|60.00| |少数股东权益|133.44|119.34|123.74|129.87|138.27| |股本|1,010.37|1,010.42|1,010.43|1,010.43|1,010.43| |资本公积|825.56|825.64|825.64|825.64|825.64| |留存收益|1,528.82|1,594.30|1,809.55|2,110.20|2,521.84| |其他|46.35| - 27.04|38.66|40.17|41.73| |股东权益合计|3,544.54|3,522.66|3,808.02|4,116.31|4,537.92| |负债和股东权益总计|8,219.86|8,264.85|8,528.90|9,608.73|9,602.22| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|5,472.92|5,191.96|6,006.75|6,814.92|7,705.43| |营业成本|4,382.42|4,206.25|4,825.30|5,459.95|6,133.86| |营业税金及附加|38.43|34.72|37.24|40.89|46.23| |销售费用|256.65|264.48|270.30|279.41|292.81| |管理费用|292.86|292.12|300.34|313.49|331.33| |研发费用|199.58|256.52|216.24|231.71|238.87| |财务费用|36.55|64.30|39.82|45.59|53.65| |资产/信用减值损失| - 47.56| - 16.80| - 15.60| - 15.60| - 15.60| |公允价值变动收益|0.01| - 0.83| - 0.30|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|8.52|12.77|13.00|14.00|15.00| |其他|37.70| - 39.16|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|267.76|117.59|314.60|442.29|608.08| |营业外收入|5.38|12.62|13.00|13.00|13.00| |营业外支出|6.08|7.75|6.50|6.80|7.00| |利润总额|267.06|122.46|321.10|448.49|614.08| |所得税|14.23| - 6.89|16.04|22.41|30.68| |净利润|252.83|129.34|305.06|426.08|583.40| |少数股东损益|5.13| - 5.71|6.10|8.52|11.67| |归属于母公司净利润|247.70|135.06|298.96|417.56|571.73| |每股收益（元）|0.25|0.13|0.30|0.41|0.57| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|10.88%| - 5.13%|15.69%|13.45%|13.07%| |营业利润|9.45%| - 56.08%|167.54%|40.59%|37.48%| |归属于母公司净利润|7.87%| - 45.48%|121.36%|39.67%|36.92%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|19.93%|18.99%|19.67%|19.88%|20.40%| |净利率|4.53%|2.60%|4.98%|6.13%|7.42%| |ROE|7.26%|3.97%|8.11%|10.47%|12.99%| |ROIC|6.98%|4.48%|7.50%|10.49%|12.53%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|56.88%|57.38%|55.35%|57.16%|52.74%| |净负债率|39.35%|46.68%|33.57%|38.42%|23.12%| |流动比率|1.74|1.45|1.43|1.43|1.48| |速动比率|1.10|0.93|0.87|0.90|0.89| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|2.61|2.40|2.73|2.81|3.00| |存货周转率|2.94|2.70|2.94|2.98|3.10| |总资产周转率|