报告公司投资评级 - 行业为家用电器/白色家电，6个月评级为买入（维持评级），当前价格73.62元 [6] 报告的核心观点 - 25Q1美的集团营收业绩大超预期，家电&To B业务高增，家电出口驱动增长，To B业务趋势向好，汇兑收益增厚业绩，归母净利率持续改善，现金流稳步提升，利润蓄水池再扩充 [1][2] - 美的集团在白电业务上龙头优势明显，各业务条线发展逻辑清晰，上修全年业绩预期，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|373,709.80|409,084.27|442,752.22|474,045.12|505,409.93| |增长率(%)|8.10|9.47|8.23|7.07|6.62| |EBITDA(百万元)|58,079.91|65,697.23|54,482.78|58,765.16|63,013.96| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|33,719.94|38,537.24|43,575.20|47,637.24|51,531.81| |增长率(%)|14.10|14.29|13.07|9.32|8.18| |EPS(元/股)|4.40|5.03|5.69|6.22|6.72| |市盈率(P/E)|16.73|14.64|12.95|11.84|10.95| |市净率(P/B)|3.46|2.60|2.44|2.22|2.03| |市销率(P/S)|1.51|1.38|1.27|1.19|1.12| |EV/EBITDA|4.46|5.23|6.58|5.06|4.53| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本7,013.06百万股，流通A股股本6,900.44百万股，A股总市值516,301.80百万元，流通A股市值508,010.13百万元，每股净资产30.00元，资产负债率61.94%，一年内最高/最低83.67/58.90元 [7] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金(百万元)|81,673.85|140,410.31|129,362.93|187,475.02|196,590.81| |应收票据及应收账款(百万元)|38,406.70|42,517.55|41,521.57|47,566.40|46,475.58| |预付账款(百万元)|3,316.19|3,686.49|5,418.84|3,812.38|5,511.86| |存货(百万元)|47,339.26|63,339.19|50,709.90|64,915.94|51,875.05| |流动资产合计(百万元)|277,275.06|385,564.23|354,493.51|426,235.33|425,793.79| |长期股权投资(百万元)|4,976.11|5,223.48|5,240.81|5,258.14|5,275.47| |固定资产(百万元)|30,937.96|33,528.91|28,927.44|24,493.50|20,243.84| |在建工程(百万元)|4,681.22|5,363.98|6,124.08|6,884.18|7,644.28| |无形资产(百万元)|18,457.74|17,008.98|15,355.61|13,699.74|12,041.37| |非流动资产合计(百万元)|204,717.20|215,288.07|192,103.66|184,006.58|176,012.46| |资产总计(百万元)|486,038.18|604,351.85|546,597.18|610,241.91|601,806.24| |短期借款(百万元)|8,819.18|31,008.55|25,840.46|21,533.71|17,944.76| |应付票据及应付账款(百万元)|94,238.07|118,774.25|107,163.78|135,756.12|124,456.40| |流动负债合计(百万元)|209,480.25|302,565.09|281,703.63|324,197.41|293,444.53| |长期借款(百万元)|46,138.74|10,491.76|8,743.13|7,285.94|6,071.62| |应付债券(百万元)|3,217.97|3,266.78|3,242.37|3,242.37|3,242.37| |非流动负债合计(百万元)|60,492.81|24,864.66|22,879.63|21,146.30|19,662.83| |负债合计(百万元)|311,738.54|376,684.46|304,583.26|345,343.70|313,107.36| |少数股东权益(百万元)|11,420.82|10,917.33|11,016.42|11,122.34|11,234.33| |股本(百万元)|7,025.77|7,655.96|7,663.91|7,663.91|7,663.91| |资本公积(百万元)|21,243.16|49,919.95|49,919.95|49,919.95|49,919.95| |留存收益(百万元)|146,987.28|164,294.46|183,958.63|204,979.50|227,203.61| |股东权益合计(百万元)|174,299.65|227,667.39|242,013.92|264,898.21|288,698.89| |负债和股东权益总计(百万元)|486,038.18|604,351.85|546,597.18|610,241.91|601,806.24| [10] 利润表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|373,709.80|409,084.27|442,752.22|474,045.12|505,409.93| |营业成本(百万元)|273,481.37|299,584.94|321,597.06|342,345.37|363,084.89| |营业税金及附加(百万元)|1,816.50|2,119.63|2,223.09|2,380.21|2,537.69| |销售费用(百万元)|34,880.88|38,753.65|44,444.72|49,008.12|53,564.77| |管理费用(百万元)|13,476.91|14,505.86|14,888.80|15,467.07|16,288.27| |研发费用(百万元)|14,583.31|16,232.77|17,873.60|19,279.08|20,655.75| |财务费用(百万元)|(3,261.66)|(3,329.25)|(4,727.25)|(5,298.39)|(5,800.57)| |资产/信用减值损失(百万元)|(638.40)|(1,012.70)|(440.00)|(400.00)|(400.00)| |公允价值变动收益(百万元)|(226.49)|1,302.15|1,080.00|1,209.60|1,354.75| |投资净收益(百万元)|463.56|1,442.94|1,210.00|1,355.20|1,517.82| |营业利润(百万元)|40,317.44|46,393.75|51,730.18|56,530.64|61,130.71| |营业外收入(百万元)|453.40|500.30|541.47|579.74|618.10| |营业外支出(百万元)|493.68|204.30|150.00|130.00|110.00| |利润总额(百万元)|40,277.16|46,689.75|52,121.65|56,980.38|61,638.80| |所得税(百万元)|6,531.81|7,932.53|8,326.88|9,103.10|9,847.33| |净利润(百万元)|33,745.35|38,757.21|43,794.77|47,877.28|51,791.48| |少数股东损益(百万元)|25.42|219.98|219.57|240.04|259.66| |归属于母公司净利润(百万元)|33,719.94|38,537.24|43,575.20|47,637.24|51,531.81| |每股收益（元）|4.40|5.03|5.69|6.22|6.72| [10][11] 现金流量表 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动(百万元)|(13,175.24)|52,812.45|(27,584.25)|36,460.71|(13,789.02)| |长期投资(百万元)|(212.71)|247.37|17.33|17.33|17.33| |股权融资(百万元)|(17,441.83)|15,802.87|(29,448.25)|(24,992.98)|(27,990.80)| |经营活动现金流(百万元)|57,902.61|60,511.57|21,381.10|89,129.09|42,501.65| |投资活动现金流(百万元)|(31,219.86)|(87,901.80)|18,442.68|(5,558.48)|(6,392.35)| |筹资活动现金流(百万元)|(17,910.21)|22,697.95|(50,871.16)|(25,458.53)|(26,993.50)| |现金净增加额(百万元)|8,772.54|(4,692.28)|(11,047.37)|58,112.08|9,115.80| [10][12] 主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |成长能力 - 营业收入增长率(%)|8.10|9.47|8.23|7.07|6.62| |成长能力 - 营业利润增长率(%)|15.98|15.07|11.50|9.28|8.14| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润增长率(%)|14.10|14.29|13.07|9.32|8.18| |获利能力 - 毛利率(%)|26.82|26.77|27.36|27.78|28.16| |获利能力 - 净利率(%)|9.02|9.42|9.84|10.05|10.20| |获利能力 - ROE(%)|20.70|17.78|18.86|18.77|18.57| |获利能力 - ROIC(%)|75.37|94.32|-258.08|169.21|-356.95| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率(%)|64.14|62.33