报告公司投资评级 - 行业为汽车/摩托车及其他，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [7] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年全年隆鑫通用营收、归母净利润、扣非归母净利润同比增长，毛利率下降，归母净利润率和扣非归母净利润率上升，期间费用率下降 [1] - 2024Q4单季度营收同比和环比增长，归母净利润和扣非归母净利润同比和环比下降，毛利率、归母净利润率和扣非归母净利润率同比和环比有不同变化 [2] - 2025Q1单季度营收同比和环比增长，归母净利润同比和环比大幅增长，毛利率、归母净利润率上升，期间费用率下降，费用率管控显著 [2] - 自主高端品牌“无极”持续进击，国内海外收入双双高增，爆款产品热销，已成长为国内高端摩托车头部品牌，未来将深耕欧洲市场并拓展其他市场 [3] - 全地形车崭露头角，2024年销售收入同比增长，产品形成全排量段矩阵，海外销售网点多 [4] - 公司打造三大自主品牌，加强渠道建设和品牌价值提升，销售网络覆盖多国，无极品牌国内外渠道建设效果显著 [4] - 维持“买入”评级，上调盈利预测，预计25 - 27年归母净利润分别为18.05、21.16、24.25亿元 [5] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|13,066.48|16,822.24|20,646.84|23,768.51|26,908.32| |增长率(%)|5.29|28.74|22.74|15.12|13.21| |EBITDA(百万元)|2,215.09|2,327.01|2,496.07|2,875.60|3,271.69| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|583.42|1,121.27|1,804.92|2,115.51|2,425.47| |增长率(%)|10.64|92.19|60.97|17.21|14.65| |EPS(元/股)|0.28|0.55|0.88|1.03|1.18| |市盈率(P/E)|43.82|22.80|14.16|12.09|10.54| |市净率(P/B)|3.10|2.79|2.63|2.47|2.31| |市销率(P/S)|1.96|1.52|1.24|1.08|0.95| |EV/EBITDA|2.13|4.97|7.02|5.70|4.65| [6] 基本数据 - A股总股本2,053.54百万股，流通A股股本2,053.54百万股，A股总市值25,566.60百万元，流通A股市值25,566.60百万元，每股净资产4.72元，资产负债率42.58%，一年内最高/最低13.06/5.68元 [8] 股价走势 - 展示了2024 - 05到2025 - 01隆鑫通用和沪深300的股价走势 [9][10] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|299.12|281.03|445.00|440.00|435.00| |负债合计|5,513.30|6,787.97|7,333.68|7,534.83|7,861.11| |股本|2,053.54|2,053.54|2,053.54|2,053.54|2,053.54| |股东权益合计|8,428.31|9,280.64|9,806.36|10,426.57|11,137.94| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|769.14|178.63|155.04|196.37|117.24| |长期投资|(12.26)|(9.34)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(184.81)|8.87|(1,243.81)|(1,453.82)|(1,666.54)| [12] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|5,547.78|6,759.66|7,860.75|8,978.84|10,121.80| |应收票据及应收账款|1,208.99|1,606.17|2,064.38|2,029.09|2,007.16| |预付账款|56.70|80.22|76.37|92.05|90.81| |存货|702.56|1,003.23|954.07|1,071.22|974.00| |其他|2,229.11|2,649.23|2,560.79|2,463.90|2,787.20| |流动资产合计|9,745.14|12,098.51|13,516.35|14,635.09|15,980.98| |长期股权投资|9.86|0.52|0.52|0.52|0.52| |固定资产|2,427.07|2,346.06|2,171.18|1,983.27|1,782.63| |在建工程|142.76|209.21|188.29|169.46|152.51| |无形资产|833.97|636.22|538.46|440.69|342.92| |其他|775.61|776.49|725.24|732.36|739.49| |非流动资产合计|4,189.26|3,968.51|3,623.69|3,326.30|3,018.07| |资产总计|13,941.61|16,068.61|17,140.04|17,961.40|18,999.05| |短期借款|303.00|301.33|300.00|300.00|300.00| |应付票据及应付账款|2,720.24|3,399.09|3,870.86|3,910.50|4,270.36| |其他|1,936.99|2,315.58|2,717.82|2,884.33|2,855.75| |流动负债合计|4,960.23|6,016.01|6,888.68|7,094.83|7,426.11| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|150.00|150.00|150.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|299.12|281.03|295.00|290.00|285.00| |少数股东权益|175.60|103.13|92.52|80.07|65.80| |股本|2,053.54|2,053.54|2,053.54|2,053.54|2,053.54| |资本公积|38.93|48.18|48.18|48.18|48.18| |留存收益|5,992.73|6,908.65|7,450.12|8,084.77|8,812.42| |其他|167.51|167.14|162.00|160.00|158.00| |股东权益合计|8,428.31|9,280.64|9,806.36|10,426.57|11,137.94| |负债和股东权益总计|13,941.61|16,068.61|17,140.04|17,961.40|18,999.05| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|13,066.48|16,822.24|20,646.84|23,768.51|26,908.32| |营业成本|10,644.26|13,863.98|16,776.81|19,186.92|21,655.23| |营业税金及附加|245.65|332.91|371.64|425.46|478.97| |销售费用|215.30|273.55|309.70|354.15|398.24| |管理费用|580.92|594.51|701.99|805.75|909.50| |研发费用|457.07|513.33|578.11|663.14|748.05| |财务费用|(76.02)|(157.30)|(115.81)|(105.44)|(77.72)| |资产/信用减值损失|(389.37)|(186.49)|(20.00)|(20.00)|(20.00)| |公允价值变动收益|(13.69)|(77.28)|53.91|(2.00)|(2.00)| |投资净收益|28.56|31.70|30.00|30.00|30.00| |其他|644.21|343.92|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|729.60|1,289.41|2,088.30|2,446.53|2,804.05| |营业外收入|3.15|2.82|3.50|3.50|3.50| |营业外支出|174.29|16.60|10.00|10.00|10.00| |利润总额|558.46|1,275.63|2,081.80|2,440.03|2,797.55| |所得税|84.24|219.25|312.27|366.00|419.63| |净利润|474.21|1,056.38|1,769.53|2,074.03|2,377.92| |少数股东损益|(109.21)|(64.89)|(35.39)|(41.48)|(47.56)| |归属于母公司净利润|583.42|1,121.27|1,804.92|2,115.51|2,425.47| |每股收益（元）|0.28|0.55|0.88|1.03|1.18| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|5.29%|28.74%|22.74%|15.12%|13.21%| |营业利润|24.11%|76.73%|61.96%|17.15%|14.61%| |归属于母公司净利润|10.64%|92.19%|60.97%|17.21%|14.65%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|18.54%|17.59%|18.74%|19.28%|19.52%| |净利率|4.47%|6.67%|8.74%|8.90%|9.01%| |ROE|7.07%|12.22%|18.58%|20.45%|21.91%| |ROIC|14.30%|39.40%|81.24%|119.42%|200.06%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|39.55%|42.24%|42.79%|41.95%|41.38%| |净负债率|-62.07%|-69.40%|-75.06%|-81.37%|-86.46%| |流动比率|1.87|1.86|1.96|2.06|2.15| |速动比率|1.74|1.71|1.82|1.91|2.02| |营运能力| | | | | | |应收账款周转率|9.92|11.95|11.25|11.61|13.33| |存货周转率|17.12|19.72|21.10|23.47|26.31| |总资产周转率|0.99|1.12|1.24|1.35|1.46| |每股指标（元）| | | | | | |每股收益|0.28|0.55|0.88|1.03|1.18| |每股经营现金流|1.17|1.03|1.13|1.28|1