报告公司投资评级 - 行业为环保/环境治理，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [5] 报告的核心观点 - 公司发布2024年报及2025年一季报，2024年营收56.67亿元同比增6.46%，归母净利润2.80亿元同比降16.99%；2025Q1营收12.06亿元同比降3.64%，归母净利润1.06亿元同比降47.63% [1] - 环保业务平稳发展，运营能力持续提升，海内外垃圾焚烧发电项目运营稳定高效，垃圾处理能力显著提升，供汽供热业务成盈利重要补充，项目收入结构持续优化 [2] - 风光储氢氨醇新型能源业务生态加速构建，公司在多地签约新型能源合作项目，未来有望开辟第二增长曲线 [3] - 考虑新型能源业务仍在开拓期，调整盈利预测，预计2025 - 2027年归母净利润分别为2.95、3.30、3.42亿元，同比分别增长5.47%、11.87%、3.47%，对应PE分别为37.52、33.54、32.41倍，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|5,323.63|5,667.34|5,786.89|6,024.67|6,457.18| |增长率(%)|-20.62|6.46|2.11|4.11|7.18| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,551.07|1,846.18|1,879.04|2,048.92|2,212.75| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|337.30|279.98|295.29|330.35|341.80| |增长率(%)|173.15|-16.99|5.47|11.87|3.47| |EPS(元/股)|0.13|0.11|0.12|0.13|0.14| |市盈率(P/E)|32.85|39.57|37.52|33.54|32.41| |市净率(P/B)|1.04|1.03|0.13|0.12|0.12| |市销率(P/S)|2.08|1.95|0.27|0.26|0.24| |EV/EBITDA|2.91|3.44|1.79|2.65|1.98| [4] 基本数据 - A股总股本2,500.78百万股，流通A股股本2,425.79百万股，A股总市值11,078.47百万元，流通A股市值10,746.27百万元 [5] - 每股净资产4.36元，资产负债率63.58%，一年内最高/最低股价为5.83/3.95元 [5] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|1,379.39|1,444.23|3,637.46|2,409.87|2,845.80| |应收票据及应收账款|2,519.27|2,367.40|1,027.05|3,298.86|1,650.16| |预付账款|215.06|204.31|219.70|226.23|249.45| |存货|315.09|279.12|268.69|409.87|310.34| |其他|855.09|780.83|903.24|914.24|1,006.51| |流动资产合计|5,283.90|5,075.88|6,056.14|7,259.07|6,062.25| |长期股权投资|242.47|231.96|231.96|231.96|231.96| |固定资产|2,691.23|2,643.55|4,311.02|5,912.80|7,499.93| |在建工程|1,625.71|2,369.31|1,934.66|1,967.33|2,055.45| |无形资产|13,939.30|14,881.38|14,285.36|13,689.35|13,093.34| |其他|4,247.71|3,687.97|3,879.29|4,083.44|4,301.20| |非流动资产合计|22,746.42|23,814.16|24,642.29|25,884.87|27,181.88| |资产总计|28,112.15|29,320.01|30,698.43|33,143.94|33,244.13| |短期借款|2,442.62|2,828.90|2,800.00|3,204.04|3,000.00| |应付票据及应付账款|2,870.49|2,664.97|2,673.41|3,241.90|2,951.49| |其他|2,628.16|2,992.64|2,893.30|3,182.73|3,402.14| |流动负债合计|7,941.27|8,486.52|8,366.70|9,628.68|9,353.63| |长期借款|4,325.26|5,075.30|4,544.10|5,042.49|4,700.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|4,928.43|4,813.66|5,113.83|5,432.72|5,771.49| |非流动负债合计|9,253.69|9,888.96|9,657.93|10,475.21|10,471.49| |负债合计|17,275.60|18,387.45|18,024.63|20,103.88|19,825.12| |少数股东权益|185.61|178.73|210.83|246.73|283.88| |股本|356.18|356.18|356.18|356.18|356.18| |资本公积|8,178.91|8,063.30|8,063.30|8,063.30|8,063.30| |留存收益|3,518.37|3,748.20|4,043.49|4,373.84|4,715.64| |其他| - 1,402.51| - 1,413.86|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股东权益合计|10,836.56|10,932.56|12,673.80|13,040.06|13,419.01| |负债和股东权益总计|28,112.15|29,320.01|30,698.43|33,143.94|33,244.13| [9] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|5,323.63|5,667.34|5,786.89|6,024.67|6,457.18| |营业成本|3,854.06|4,004.72|4,073.47|4,212.20|4,534.97| |营业税金及附加|49.49|51.88|52.97|55.15|59.11| |销售费用|52.10|47.21|48.21|50.19|53.79| |管理费用|540.95|499.40|509.94|530.89|569.00| |研发费用|71.73|94.95|96.95|100.93|108.18| |财务费用|358.87|479.21|446.45|449.44|472.12| |资产/信用减值损失| - 47.44| - 134.20| - 85.43| - 89.02| - 102.88| |公允价值变动收益| - 0.65|6.57|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益| - 0.36|0.42|0.03|0.03|0.16| |其他|17.66|128.61|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|427.21|488.57|473.50|536.88|557.28| |营业外收入|2.57|0.67|12.84|5.36|6.29| |营业外支出|9.45|28.97|18.65|19.02|22.21| |利润总额|420.34|460.27|467.69|523.22|541.36| |所得税|35.99|149.86|140.31|156.97|162.41| |净利润|384.34|310.41|327.38|366.26|378.95| |少数股东损益|47.05|30.43|32.09|35.90|37.15| |归属于母公司净利润|337.30|279.98|295.29|330.35|341.80| |每股收益（元）|0.13|0.11|0.12|0.13|0.14| [9][10] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营运资金变动| - 612.98| - 490.60|1,554.03| - 1,558.61|1,575.69| |长期投资| - 4.19| - 10.52|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资| - 27.67| - 126.96|1,413.86|0.00|0.00| |净利润|384.34|310.41|295.29|330.35|341.80| |折旧摊销|727.60|759.61|863.20|961.56|1,064.33| |财务费用|358.18|492.57|446.45|449.44|472.12| |投资损失|0.36| - 0.42| - 0.03| - 0.03| - 0.16| |营运资金变动| - 612.98| - 490.60|1,554.03| - 1,558.61|1,575.69| |其它| - 376.68| - 416.25|32.09|35.90|37.15| |经营活动现金流|480.81|655.32|3,191.04|218.61|3,490.94| |资本支出|2,147.72|2,484.69|1,199.83|1,681.11|1,804.80| |长期投资| - 4.19| - 10.52|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他| - 4,321.43| - 3,769.50| - 2,699.80| - 3,681.08| - 3,948.22| |投资活动现金流| - 2,177.91| - 1,295.33| - 1,499.97| - 1,999.97| - 2,143.42| |债权融资|260.70|890.78| - 911.70|553.76| - 911.59| |股权融资| - 27.67| - 126.96|1,413.86|0.00|0.00| |其他|1,092.76| - 185.45|0.00|0.00|0.00| |筹资活动现金流|1,325.79|578.37|502.16|553.76| - 911.59| |汇率变动影响|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |现金净增加额| - 371.31| - 61.63|2,193.23| - 1,227.60|435.93