报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/白酒Ⅱ，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [4] 报告的核心观点 - 2024年公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为360.11/122.43亿元（同比+12.79%/+17.29%）；2025Q1公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为165.23/66.48亿元（同比+7.72%/+6.15%） [1] - 预计公司25 - 27年收入同比增长8%/9%/9%至390/425/463亿元（25 - 26年前值421/474亿元），归母净利润同比增长6%/9%/10%至130/141/155亿元（25 - 26年前值141/160亿元），下调盈利预测主要系白酒消费环境偏弱，对应PE分别为19X/18X/16X，维持“买入”评级 [2] 业绩总结 2024年情况 - 酒类收入358.75亿元（同比+13%），毛利率同比+0.93pct至76.30%，销量/吨价分别同比+7.20%/+5.43% [1] - 中高价酒类收入比重同比+0.86pct至73.96%，中高价酒类/其他酒类收入分别265.32/93.42亿元（同比 +14.35%/+9.40% ），毛利率分别为84.45%/53.15%（同比+0.36/+1.50pct）；中高价酒类销量/吨价分别同比+12.96%/+1.23%，其他酒类销量/吨价分别同比+4.83%/+4.36% [7] - 省内/省外收入分别为135.00/223.74亿元（同比+11.72%/+13.81%），其中省外收入比重同比+0.44pct至62.37%；经销商数量同比+613家至4553家，单商规模同比-2.88%至736.57万元/家 [7] - 毛利率/归母净利率分别为76.20%/34.00%（同比+0.9/+1.3pct ），销售/管理费用率分别10.35%/4.02%（同比+0.27/+0.25pct），经营性现金流量净额同比+68.47%至121.72亿元 [7] 2025Q1情况 - 酒类收入164.80亿元（同比+7.74%），其中汾酒/其他酒类收入分别为162.12/2.68亿元（同比+8.23%/-15.49%） [1] - 省内/省外收入分别为60.83/103.96亿元（同比+8.7%/+7.18%），其中省内收入占比同比+0.33pct至36.91%；公司经销商数量同比+743家至4,461家，单商规模同比-7.88% [1] - 毛利率/归母净利率分别为78.80%/40.23% （同比+1.34/-0.60pct ），销售/管理费用率分别为9.23%/1.76%（同比+1.76/-0.23pct），费用率略提升主因加大投放；经营性现金流量净额同比-0.21%至70.27亿元，合同负债同比/环比+2.29/-28.54亿元至58.18亿元 [1] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|31,928.48|36,010.99|39,042.19|42,467.25|46,344.14| |增长率(%)|21.80|12.79|8.42|8.77|9.13| |EBITDA(百万元)|14,546.11|16,891.10|17,786.38|19,175.47|21,046.21| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|10,438.11|12,242.88|12,982.56|14,129.38|15,504.33| |增长率(%)|28.93|17.29|6.04|8.83|9.73| |EPS(元/股)|8.56|10.04|10.64|11.58|12.71| |市盈率(P/E)|23.87|20.35|19.19|17.63|16.07| |市净率(P/B)|8.95|7.17|5.59|4.51|3.72| |市销率(P/S)|7.80|6.92|6.38|5.87|5.38| |EV/EBITDA|18.77|12.69|13.01|11.39|9.95| [3] 基本数据 - A股总股本1,219.96百万股，流通A股股本1,219.96百万股，A股总市值249,165.49百万元，流通A股市值249,165.49百万元 [5] - 每股净资产31.47元，资产负债率30.75%，一年内最高/最低271.85/147.01元 [5] 财务预测摘要 资产负债表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|3,774.75|6,284.73|13,739.84|26,815.21|35,745.54| |应收票据及应收账款|0.23|0.08|0.26|0.10|0.29| |预付账款|113.57|98.58|227.35|88.42|251.30| |存货|11,572.56|13,270.21|14,572.07|15,958.95|17,359.29| |其他|19,146.70|24,380.14|24,433.96|24,361.38|24,446.85| |流动资产合计|34,607.80|44,033.74|52,973.48|67,224.07|77,803.27| |长期股权投资|94.18|95.60|95.60|95.60|95.60| |固定资产|1,926.33|2,854.88|2,805.92|2,839.22|3,002.28| |在建工程|829.21|2,024.87|2,224.87|2,324.87|2,424.87| |无形资产|1,246.69|1,225.62|1,192.40|1,159.18|1,125.97| |其他|5,391.63|3,260.48|3,250.57|3,240.66|3,230.75| |非流动资产合计|9,488.03|9,461.46|9,569.37|9,659.55|9,879.47| |资产总计|44,095.84|53,495.20|62,542.85|76,883.61|87,682.74| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|2,893.14|4,586.64|3,796.25|5,396.18|4,635.44| |其他|5,224.35|4,704.12|13,375.06|15,347.19|15,266.62| |流动负债合计|8,117.49|9,290.76|17,171.31|20,743.38|19,902.06| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|674.10|327.53|365.38|455.67|382.86| |少数股东权益|438.16|450.65|458.83|467.72|477.48| |股本|1,219.96|1,219.96|1,219.96|1,219.96|1,219.96| |资本公积|704.07|704.07|704.07|704.07|704.07| |留存收益|25,787.22|32,701.94|42,502.07|53,167.90|64,871.64| |其他|125.65|127.85|121.23|124.91|124.66| |股东权益合计|28,275.07|35,204.48|45,006.16|55,684.57|67,397.82| |负债和股东权益总计|44,095.84|53,495.20|62,542.85|76,883.61|87,682.74| [9] 利润表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|31,928.48|36,010.99|39,042.19|42,467.25|46,344.14| |营业成本|7,884.35|8,569.68|9,604.38|10,531.88|11,493.35| |营业税金及附加|5,831.98|5,932.89|6,465.39|7,219.43|7,832.16| |销售费用|3,216.78|3,726.36|4,177.51|4,501.53|4,866.13| |管理费用|1,202.10|1,447.35|1,561.69|1,613.76|1,668.39| |研发费用|88.18|147.80|117.13|139.66|160.55| |财务费用|(7.94)|(9.77)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |资产/信用减值损失|(3.20)|7.26|6.86|3.64|5.92| |公允价值变动收益|0.24|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|499.30|324.11|384.48|402.63|370.41| |其他|(1,007.37)|(673.27)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |营业利润|14,224.06|16,538.58|17,507.44|18,867.26|20,699.89| |营业外收入|4.89|3.96|5.03|4.62|4.54| |营业外支出|23.81|13.70|13.50|17.00|14.74| |利润总额|14,205.14|16,528.84|17,498.96|18,854.88|20,689.69| |所得税|3,746.61|4,275.75|4,505.58|4,713.72|5,172.42| |净利润|10,458.53|12,253.09|12,993.39|14,141.16|15,517.26| |少数股东损益|20.42|10.21|10.83|11.78|12.93| |归属于母公司净利润|10,438.11|12,242.88|12,982.56|14,129.38|15,504.33| |每股收益（元）|8.56|10.04|10.64|11.58|12.71| [9] 现金流量表(百万元) |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |净利润|10,458.53|12,253.09|12,982.56|14,129.38|15,504.33| |折旧摊销|253.31|235.09|284.94|310.85|350.91| |财务费用|39.42|33.66|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资损失|(499.30)|(324.11)|(384.48)|(402.63)|(370.41)| |营运资金变动|(15,033.28)|(2,830.53)|(2,228.75)|2,497.05|(2,553.08)| |其它|12,006.40|2,805.1