报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/非白酒，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [6] 报告的核心观点 - 25Q1重庆啤酒营业收入43.55亿元，同比+1.46%；归母净利4.73亿元，同比+4.59%；扣非净利4.67亿元，同比+4.74% [1] - 预计25 - 27年公司收入增速分别为1%/2%/3%（金额148.6/152.1/156.1亿元），归母净利润增速分别为15%/5%/5%（金额12.8/13.5/14.2亿元），对应PE分别为22X/20X/19X，维持“买入”评级 [3] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 销量与吨价 - 25Q1销量88.35万吨，同比+1.93%（Q4量同比 - 8%）；啤酒业务吨价 - 0.3%到4804元 [2] - 分产品看，Q1高档（8元以上）/主流/经济营业收入26.03/15.50/0.91亿元，同比+1.21%/+1.99%/6.09%，高档占比 - 0.3pct到61.3% [2] - 分区域看，Q1西北区收入11.78亿元，同比+1.57%；中区18.35亿元，同比+1.45%；南区12.31亿元，同比+1.83%；各区域增速相对平衡 [2] 成本与盈利 - 25Q1净利率同比+0.7pct到21.6%，毛利率同比+0.5pct，吨成本同比 - 1.5%，销售费率同比 - 0.4pct，管理/研发费率同比+0.3/-0.1pct，所得税率同比 - 0.9pct至17.9% [3] - 收入端，公司持续加大1664等非现饮的投入，成效已逐步显现；现饮静待后续场景修复 [3] - 利润端，25年大麦使用成本降幅或大于24年，抵消佛山工厂折旧影响，费率维稳 [3] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|14,814.84|14,644.60|14,859.66|15,209.04|15,612.55| |增长率(%)|5.53|(1.15)|1.47|2.35|2.65| |EBITDA(百万元)|3,941.21|3,828.35|4,068.82|4,248.38|4,452.84| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,336.60|1,114.59|1,282.82|1,352.01|1,420.53| |增长率(%)|5.78|(16.61)|15.09|5.39|5.07| |EPS(元/股)|2.76|2.30|2.65|2.79|2.94| |市盈率(P/E)|20.72|24.84|21.58|20.48|19.49| |市净率(P/B)|12.94|23.36|23.39|23.39|23.38| |市销率(P/S)|1.87|1.89|1.86|1.82|1.77| |EV/EBITDA|7.53|7.80|6.50|6.27|5.79| [5] 基本数据 - A股总股本483.97百万股，流通A股股本483.97百万股，A股总市值27,687.99百万元，流通A股市值27,687.99百万元 [7] - 每股净资产3.42元，资产负债率70.96%，一年内最高/最低77.00/50.85元 [7] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|553.02|775.37|814.03|550.00|550.00| |负债合计|8,734.76|8,514.68|8,906.04|8,313.23|8,897.27| |股本|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97| |股东权益合计|3,652.15|2,453.66|2,202.34|2,202.14|2,202.71| |现金流量表(百万元)| | | | | | |营运资金变动|(412.52)|(158.36)|508.00|(656.70)|551.20| |长期投资|(155.99)|2.25|(20.00)|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(1,349.37)|(714.45)|(2,869.32)|(2,747.08)|(2,885.51)| [11] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |资产负债表(百万元)| | | | | | |货币资金|2,712.72|1,081.66|1,367.60|1,170.59|1,968.27| |应收票据及应收账款|64.63|63.42|68.66|66.53|72.25| |预付账款|41.83|28.01|55.88|27.73|56.67| |存货|2,100.35|2,185.84|2,113.97|2,173.28|2,111.86| |其他|545.07|320.11|183.69|203.56|194.81| |流动资产合计|5,464.61|3,679.04|3,789.79|3,641.68|4,403.86| |长期股权投资|140.61|142.86|122.86|122.86|122.86| |固定资产|3,673.99|4,755.03|4,795.99|4,420.96|4,259.92| |在建工程|783.50|159.77|149.77|139.77|129.77| |无形资产|677.05|650.63|580.77|510.90|441.03| |其他|1,647.15|1,581.01|1,669.19|1,679.19|1,742.53| |非流动资产合计|6,922.31|7,289.30|7,318.59|6,873.69|6,696.12| |资产总计|12,386.91|10,968.34|11,108.38|10,515.37|11,099.98| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付票据及应付账款|2,607.63|2,464.57|2,636.18|2,551.39|2,739.45| |其他|3,907.32|3,495.18|5,455.83|5,211.84|5,607.82| |流动负债合计|6,514.95|5,959.75|8,092.01|7,763.23|8,347.27| |长期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|553.02|775.37|814.03|550.00|550.00| |少数股东权益|1,511.95|1,268.44|1,018.44|1,018.44|1,018.44| |股本|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97|483.97| |资本公积|16.02|24.28|24.28|24.28|24.28| |留存收益|1,656.29|689.81|689.81|689.81|689.81| |其他|(16.09)|(12.84)|(14.16)|(14.36)|(13.79)| |股东权益合计|3,652.15|2,453.66|2,202.34|2,202.14|2,202.71| |负债和股东权益总计|12,386.91|10,968.34|11,108.38|10,515.37|11,099.98| |利润表(百万元)| | | | | | |营业收入|14,814.84|14,644.60|14,859.66|15,209.04|15,612.55| |营业成本|7,533.98|7,531.38|7,587.89|7,717.04|7,870.67| |营业税金及附加|957.55|951.75|965.73|988.59|1,014.82| |销售费用|2,532.62|2,512.65|2,523.54|2,570.33|2,622.91| |管理费用|494.67|516.94|502.84|494.29|499.60| |研发费用|26.23|22.67|20.12|15.21|15.61| |财务费用|(60.31)|(27.97)|(26.94)|(27.92)|(34.53)| |资产/信用减值损失|(102.54)|(95.08)|(84.47)|(85.00)|(85.00)| |公允价值变动收益|0.20|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |投资净收益|66.58|80.20|96.90|96.90|100.00| |其他|13.07|(32.46)|0.00|(0.00)|(0.00)| |营业利润|3,352.79|3,184.51|3,298.91|3,463.40|3,638.47| |营业外收入|28.77|15.90|1.96|1.96|0.90| |营业外支出|5.88|280.49|5.00|7.25|6.00| |利润总额|3,375.69|2,919.93|3,295.87|3,458.11|3,633.37| |所得税|664.12|670.55|677.87|711.24|747.28| |净利润|2,711.57|2,249.38|2,618.00|2,746.87|2,886.09| |少数股东损益|1,374.97|1,134.79|1,335.18|1,394.86|1,465.55| |归属于母公司净利润|1,336.60|1,114.59|1,282.82|1,352.01|1,420.53| |每股收益（元）|2.76|2.30|2.65|2.79|2.94| |主要财务比率| | | | | | |成长能力| | | | | | |营业收入|5.53%|-1.15%|1.47%|2.35%|2.65%| |营业利润|1.63%|-5.02%|3.59%|4.99%|5.05%| |归属于母公司净利润|5.78%|-16.61%|15.09%|5.39%|5.07%| |获利能力| | | | | | |毛利率|49.15%|48.57%|48.94%|49.26%|49.59%| |净利率|9.02%|7.61%|8.63%|8.89%|9.10%| |ROE|62.45%|94.04%|108.36%|114.22%|119.95%| |ROIC|-384.74%|-745.12%|481.45%|-3626.16%|2456.37%| |偿债能力| | | | | | |资产负债率|70.52%|77.63%|80.17%|79.06%|80.16%| |净负债率|-73.12%|-42.06%|-60.28%|-51.11%|-87.09%| |流动比率|0.67|0.48|0.47|0.47|0.53| |速动比率|0.41|0.19|0.21|0.19|0.27| |营运能力| | | | | |