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日辰股份(603755):25Q1业绩稳健,品牌定制起量明显

报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/调味发酵品Ⅱ,6个月评级为买入(维持评级) [5] 报告的核心观点 - 24年实现收入/归母净利润4.05/0.64亿元,同比+12.59%/+13.16%;24Q4实现收入/归母净利润1.07/0.09亿元,同比+14.90%/-36.49%;25Q1实现收入/归母净利润1.01/0.18亿元,同比+10.50%/+36.86% [1] - 新品持续推出,25Q1主要品类均有增长,24年公司酱汁类/粉体类/食品添加剂收入3.19/0.83/0.02亿元(同比+19%/-6%/-41%),25Q1分别同比+5%/+30%/+16% [1] - 24年公司共销售2000多款产品,近三年开发新品销售占比超50%;新增酱汁类复合调味品800多款;粉体类复合调味品近300款;零售终端类复合调味品10多款 [1] - 餐饮稳健增长,品牌定制起量明显,24年餐饮/食品加工/品牌定制/直营商超/直营电商/经销商收入分别为2.00/1.40/0.52/0.02/0.03/0.07亿元(同比+22%/+4%/+15%/-14%/+44%/-35%);25Q1分别同比+10%/+7%/+37%/-11%/-12%/-75% [2] - 盈利能力显著提升,费用有所收缩,24年毛利率/净利率同比-0.07/+0.08pct至38.70%/15.78%;25Q1毛利率/净利率同比+0.93/+3.36pct至39.21%/17.42% [2] - 随着餐饮渠道恢复及公司在新客户和渠道端拓展,业绩有望稳健增长,预计25 - 27年营收分别4.70/5.40/6.20亿元,同增16%/15%/15%;归母净利润分别0.85/1.01/1.18亿元,同增33%/19%/16%,对应PE分别为31X/26X/22X [3] 财务数据和估值 - 2023 - 2027E营业收入分别为359.47/404.74/470.02/539.95/619.51百万元,增长率分别为16.49%/12.59%/16.13%/14.88%/14.73% [9] - 2023 - 2027E归属母公司净利润分别为56.43/63.86/85.04/101.24/117.81百万元,增长率分别为10.52%/13.16%/33.18%/19.04%/16.37% [9] - 2023 - 2027E EPS分别为0.57/0.65/0.86/1.03/1.19元/股,市盈率分别为46.31/40.92/30.73/25.81/22.18 [9] - 2023 - 2027E市净率分别为3.72/3.59/3.27/3.05/2.83,市销率分别为7.27/6.46/5.56/4.84/4.22,EV/EBITDA分别为27.70/26.42/20.79/17.26/14.70 [9] 资产负债表 - 2023 - 2027E资产总计分别为962.30/1,002.93/1,002.73/1,060.72/1,189.47百万元,负债和股东权益总计与之相同 [11] - 2023 - 2027E股东权益合计分别为701.64/727.90/799.04/856.43/922.65百万元 [11] 利润表 - 2023 - 2027E营业收入分别为359.47/404.74/470.02/539.95/619.51百万元,营业成本分别为220.12/248.12/289.02/329.47/375.12百万元 [11] - 2023 - 2027E净利润分别为56.43/63.86/85.04/101.24/117.81百万元,归属于母公司净利润与之相同 [11] 现金流量表 - 2023 - 2027E经营活动现金流分别为69.94/86.53/119.20/123.29/146.41百万元,投资活动现金流分别为(125.03)/29.02/(95.55)/(96.39)/(96.49)百万元 [11] - 2023 - 2027E筹资活动现金流分别为(48.94)/2.67/(148.78)/(21.31)/(43.55)百万元,现金净增加额分别为(104.03)/118.22/(125.13)/5.59/6.36百万元 [11] 主要财务比率 - 成长能力方面,2023 - 2027E营业收入增长率分别为16.49%/12.59%/16.13%/14.88%/14.73%,营业利润增长率分别为12.11%/15.25%/29.41%/18.83%/16.39% [11] - 获利能力方面,2023 - 2027E毛利率分别为38.76%/38.70%/38.51%/38.98%/39.45%,净利率分别为15.70%/15.78%/18.09%/18.75%/19.02% [11] - 偿债能力方面,2023 - 2027E资产负债率分别为27.09%/27.42%/20.31%/19.26%/22.43%,净负债率分别为11.95%/0.57%/-0.55%/1.54%/1.71% [11] - 营运能力方面,2023 - 2027E应收账款周转率分别为5.35/5.58/5.19/5.37/5.38,存货周转率分别为11.09/11.84/10.73/11.26/11.39 [11] - 每股指标方面,2023 - 2027E每股收益分别为0.57/0.65/0.86/1.03/1.19元,每股经营现金流分别为0.71/0.88/1.21/1.25/1.48元 [11] - 估值比率方面,2023 - 2027E市盈率分别为46.31/40.92/30.73/25.81/22.18,市净率分别为3.72/3.59/3.27/3.05/2.83 [11]