报告公司投资评级 - 行业为食品饮料/调味发酵品，6个月评级为买入（维持评级） [3] 报告的核心观点 - 25Q1公司业绩承压但毛利率有所提升，全年业绩有望稳健增长，预计25 - 27年营收为60.6/66.6/73.2亿元，同增10%/10%/10%；预计归母净利润为9.9/10.9/12.0亿元，同比+10%/+10%/+10% ，对应PE分别为15X/14X/13X，维持“买入”评级 [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 业绩情况 - 25Q1实现营收/归母净利润11.02/1.81亿元，同比 - 25.81%/-24.24%，低于预期 [1] - 25Q1美味鲜营收/归母净利润10.82/1.77亿元，同比 - 25.94%/-27.61%，其中酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油/其他收入6.48/1.30/0.51/1.99亿元，同比 - 32%/-29%/-50%/-7% [1] 区域与经销商情况 - 25Q1美味鲜东部/南部/中西部/北部收入分别为1.95/4.19/2.30/1.83亿元，同比 - 47%/-20%/-29%/-19% [1] - 25Q1末美味鲜公司经销商同比净增491家至2672家，平均经销商收入同 - 42%至38万元/家 [1] 毛利率与费用情况 - 25Q1公司毛利率/净利率同比 + 1.75/-1.17pct至38.73%/16.46%，毛利率显著提升 [2] - 销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率分别同比变动 + 0.89/+1.71/+0.45pct至8.62%/8.07%/0.35%，销售费用率有所增长，管理费用绝对值同比下降 [2] 财务数据和估值 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(百万元)|5,139.09|5,518.76|6,064.45|6,659.35|7,315.12| |增长率(%)|(3.78)|7.39|9.89|9.81|9.85| |EBITDA(百万元)|1,036.21|1,496.37|1,485.93|1,585.38|1,707.76| |归属母公司净利润(百万元)|1,696.95|893.07|986.11|1,088.23|1,198.39| |增长率(%)|(386.53)|(47.37)|10.42|10.36|10.12| |EPS(元/股)|2.17|1.14|1.26|1.39|1.53| |市盈率(P/E)|8.98|17.07|15.46|14.01|12.72| |市净率(P/B)|3.24|2.71|2.51|2.21|1.96| |市销率(P/S)|2.97|2.76|2.51|2.29|2.08| |EV/EBITDA|20.55|11.05|9.01|7.92|7.06| [7] 财务预测摘要 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |非流动负债合计|181.20|223.05|170.00|170.00|180.00| |负债合计|1,518.35|2,466.81|1,954.04|2,230.77|2,294.15| |股本|785.38|783.22|783.22|783.22|783.22| |股东权益合计|5,200.53|5,770.05|6,291.36|7,129.64|8,061.69| |营运资金变动|(2,643.61)|(1,279.03)|613.59|(14.85)|(465.18)| |长期投资|(0.40)|(0.10)|0.00|0.00|0.00| |股权融资|(308.11)|748.79|(537.63)|(307.22)|(329.41)| [8] 资产负债表、利润表、现金流量表及主要财务比率 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |货币资金|500.45|692.60|1,509.59|2,389.06|2,940.28| |应收票据及应收账款|75.27|415.69|130.10|217.08|231.58| |预付账款|14.62|26.20|9.30|32.41|14.93| |存货|1,617.96|1,531.01|1,892.18|1,884.66|2,245.20| |其他|1,524.51|2,529.90|1,726.13|1,929.20|2,091.92| |流动资产合计|3,732.81|5,195.39|5,267.30|6,452.41|7,523.92| |长期股权投资|3.74|3.64|3.64|3.64|3.64| |固定资产|1,906.16|2,004.31|1,826.96|1,649.61|1,472.27| |在建工程|242.16|142.47|272.47|392.47|502.47| |无形资产|181.54|169.08|162.39|155.71|149.03| |其他|652.47|721.98|712.63|706.55|704.52| |非流动资产合计|2,986.07|3,041.47|2,978.10|2,907.99|2,831.93| |资产总计|6,718.88|8,236.86|8,245.40|9,360.41|10,355.85| |短期借款|100.00|620.00|300.00|300.00|300.00| |应付票据及应付账款|543.62|538.15|869.99|575.86|989.90| |其他|585.29|994.09|614.05|1,184.90|824.26| |流动负债合计|1,228.91|2,152.24|1,784.04|2,060.77|2,114.15| |长期借款|0.00|50.05|50.00|50.00|50.00| |应付债券|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他|181.20|173.00|120.00|120.00|130.00| |少数股东权益|495.78|156.03|207.00|247.10|291.25| |股本|785.38|783.22|783.22|783.22|783.22| |资本公积|3.23|423.57|423.57|423.57|423.57| |留存收益|4,500.69|4,661.18|5,351.46|6,113.22|6,952.10| |其他|(584.55)|(253.95)|(473.90)|(437.47)|(388.44)| |股东权益合计|5,200.53|5,770.05|6,291.36|7,129.64|8,061.69| |负债和股东权益总计|6,718.88|8,236.86|8,245.40|9,360.41|10,355.85| |营业收入|5,139.09|5,518.76|6,064.45|6,659.35|7,315.12| |营业成本|3,458.22|3,323.35|3,647.12|3,994.11|4,375.27| |营业税金及附加|60.96|58.21|63.96|70.24|77.15| |销售费用|457.26|504.47|557.93|612.66|672.99| |管理费用|377.34|381.70|418.45|452.84|497.43| |研发费用|180.64|164.82|181.11|198.88|218.46| |财务费用|(6.04)|5.71|11.52|(1.33)|(6.78)| |资产/信用减值损失|(45.62)|(28.41)|(24.72)|(32.92)|(28.69)| |公允价值变动收益|0.48|3.49|50.90|8.00|(10.00)| |投资净收益|37.90|56.64|42.27|45.61|48.17| |其他|(14.89)|(98.17)|0.00|0.00|(0.00)| |营业利润|632.83|1,146.95|1,252.81|1,352.65|1,490.08| |营业外收入|1,181.27|2.69|3.00|3.00|3.00| |营业外支出|12.51|9.34|10.00|8.00|9.00| |利润总额|1,801.59|1,140.29|1,245.81|1,347.65|1,484.08| |所得税|64.55|181.27|186.87|202.15|222.61| |净利润|1,737.03|959.02|1,058.94|1,145.50|1,261.47| |少数股东损益|40.08|65.95|72.82|57.28|63.07| |归属于母公司净利润|1,696.95|893.07|986.11|1,088.23|1,198.39| |每股收益（元）|2.17|1.14|1.26|1.39|1.53| |成长能力 - 营业收入|-3.78%|7.39%|9.89%|9.81%|9.85%| |成长能力 - 营业利润|-10.33%|81.24%|9.23%|7.97%|10.16%| |成长能力 - 归属于母公司净利润| - 386.53%| - 47.37%|10.42%|10.36%|10.12%| |获利能力 - 毛利率|32.71%|39.78%|39.86%|40.02%|40.19%| |获利能力 - 净利率|33.02%|16.18%|16.26%|16.34%|16.38%| |获利能力 - ROE|36.07%|15.91%|16.21%|15.81%|15.42%| |获利能力 - ROIC|28.09%|24.67%|21.95%|27.11%|30.06%| |偿债能力 - 资产负债率|22.60%|29.95%|23.70%|23.83%|22.15%| |偿债能力 - 净负债率| - 7.69%| - 0.35%| - 18.41%| - 28.58%| - 32.11%| |偿债能力 - 流动比率|2.79|2.32|2.95|3.13|3.56| |偿债能力 - 速动比率|1.58|1.63|1.89|2.22|2.50| |营运能力 - 应收账款周转率|81.51|22.48|22.22|38.36|32.61| |营运能力 - 存货周转率|3.13|3.51|3.54|3.53|3.54| |营运能力 - 总资产周转率|0.79|0.74|0.74|0.76|0.74| |每股指标 - 每股收益|2.17|1.14|1.26|1.39|1.53| |每股指标 - 每股经营现金流|1.07|1.39|2.40|1.63|1.17| |每股指标 - 每股净资产|6.01|7.17|7.77|8.79|9.92| |估值比率 - 市盈率|8.98|17.07|15.46|14.01|12.