报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级，目标价为港币160.10、美元20.50 [1][4][6] 报告的核心观点 - 尽管短期面临价格竞争，但中通作为行业龙头，有望通过降低单票价格进一步抢占市场份额，稳固其行业竞争优势 [1] - 考虑行业价格战激烈，下调25/26/27年单票收入假设，对应下调25/26/27年归母净利17%/13%/8%至81.8亿/101.9亿/118.4亿元 [4] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 一季度业绩情况 - 收入108.9亿元，同比增长9.4%；归母净利19.9亿元，同比增长39.8%；调整后归母净利22.1亿元，同比增长0.5% [1] - 快递件量同比增长19.1%，小幅低于行业件量增速21.6%，市场份额同比下降0.4pct至18.9%，排名第一；单票收入1.25元，同比下降7.8% [1] 业务情况 - 国内快递行业价格战激烈，公司下调单票价格抢占市场件量，散件业务量同比增长46% [2] 成本与利润情况 - 单票成本同比下降0.4%至0.94元，调整后单票净利0.26元，同比下降14.7% [3] 盈利预测调整 - 下调25/26/27年单票收入假设，对应下调25/26/27年归母净利17%/13%/8%至81.8亿/101.9亿/118.4亿元 [4] 经营预测指标与估值 |会计年度|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入(人民币百万)|38,419|44,281|52,406|60,643|67,886| |归属母公司净利润(人民币百万)|8,749|8,817|8,178|10,185|11,844| |EPS(人民币，最新摊薄)|10.83|10.95|10.17|12.66|14.72| |ROE(%)|15.37|14.47|12.68|14.55|15.45| |PE(倍)|11.70|11.56|12.46|10.00|8.60| |PB(倍)|1.71|1.64|1.52|1.39|1.27| |EV EBITDA(倍)|8.21|7.14|7.09|5.68|4.69| [10] 核心盈利假设（季度） | | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | 2Q25E | 3Q25E | 4Q25E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 快递件量（百万件） | 7,171 | 8,452 | 8,723 | 9,665 | 8,539 | 10,480 | 10,817 | 12,338 | 42,174 | 48,500 | 54,805 | | 同比增速 | 13.9% | 10.1% | 16.0% | 11.0% | 19.1% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 27.7% | 24.0% | 15.0% | 13.0% | | 单票收入（元） | 1.36 | 1.24 | 1.20 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.23 | 1.22 | | 同比增速 | -2.5% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 10.3% | -7.8% | 1.9% | -7.7% | -5.5% | -4.3% | 0.8% | -0.8% | | 单票成本（元） | -0.94 | -0.82 | -0.82 | -0.93 | -0.94 | -0.92 | -0.92 | -0.90 | -0.92 | -0.91 | -0.89 | | 同比增速 | -5.3% | 0.7% | -0.2% | 11.1% | -0.4% | 12.3% | -1.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | -1.1% | -2.2% | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 9,960 | 10,726 | 10,675 | 12,920 | 10,891 | 13,028 | 13,392 | 15,094 | 52,406 | 60,643 | 67,886 | | 同比增速 | 10.9% | 10.1% | 17.6% | 21.7% | 9.4% | 21.5% | 25.5% | 16.8% | 18.4% | 15.7% | 11.9% | | 毛利率 | 30.1% | 33.8% | 31.2% | 29.1% | 24.7% | 24.7% | 24.4% | 24.9% | 24.7% | 26.0% | 26.9% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,426 | 2,612 | 2,396 | 2,383 | 1,993 | 1,856 | 1,880 | 2,450 | 8,178 | 10,185 | 11,844 | | 同比增速 | -14.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 39.8% | -29.0% | -21.6% | 2.8% | -7.3% | 24.6% | 16.3% | [11] 盈利预测 |会计年度(人民币百万)|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业收入|38,419|44,281|52,406|60,643|67,886| |销售成本|(26,756)|(30,564)|(39,471)|(44,907)|(49,649)| |毛利润|11,663|13,717|12,934|15,736|18,237| |销售及分销成本|(2,425)|(2,690)|(3,336)|(3,836)|(4,335)| |管理费用|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他收入/支出|771.00|749.78|786.08|788.36|882.51| |财务成本净额|417.00|655.62|429.90|603.86|878.17| |应占联营公司利润及亏损|4.00|57.41|59.13|58.56|58.75| |税前利润|10,689|11,676|10,815|13,470|15,663| |税费开支|(1,939)|(2,845)|(2,623)|(3,267)|(3,798)| |少数股东损益|(5.00)|(70.76)|(73.59)|(76.53)|(79.60)| |归母净利润|8,749|8,817|8,178|10,185|11,844| |折旧和摊销|(2,875)|(3,023)|(3,186)|(3,308)|(3,397)| |EBITDA|13,858|15,094|14,530|17,314|19,577| |EPS(人民币，基本)|10.83|10.95|10.17|12.66|14.72| [19] 资产负债表 |会计年度(人民币百万)|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |存货|28.00|38.57|43.03|48.96|54.13| |应收账款和票据|573.00|1,504|1,229|1,422|1,592| |现金及现金等价物|13,020|13,503|19,226|24,041|29,407| |其他流动资产|13,332|15,308|14,650|14,869|14,796| |总流动资产|26,953|30,354|35,147|40,381|45,848| |固定资产|37,818|40,086|42,220|43,985|45,336| |无形资产|23.00|17.04|13.85|11.65|13.45| |其他长期资产|23,670|21,884|21,255|20,677|19,812| |总长期资产|61,511|61,987|63,489|64,674|65,161| |总资产|88,465|92,340|98,636|105,055|111,009| |应付账款|2,557|9,733|10,107|10,223|10,214| |短期借款|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00|0.00| |其他负债|17,504|18,540|19,729|19,963|18,912| |总流动负债|20,061|28,273|29,836|30,186|29,125| |长期债务|456.00|377.72|403.77|395.09|397.98| |其他长期债务|7,668|1,015|889.10|930.91|916.97| |总长期负债|8,124|1,392|1,293|1,326|1,315| |股本|24,202|24,390|24,390|24,390|24,390| |储备/其他项目|35,599|37,672|42,579|48,690|55,796| |股东权益|59,801|62,062|66,969|73,080|80,186| |少数股东权益|479.00|612.44|538.85|462.32|382.72| |总权益|60,280|62,675|67,508|73,542|80,569| [19] 业绩指标 |会计年度(倍)|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |增长率(%)| | | | | | |营业收入|8.60|15.26|18.35|15.72|11.94| |毛利润|29.03|17.61|(5.71)|21.66|15.89| |营业利润|29.35|17.67|(11.82)|22.18|16.52| |净利润|28.49|0.78|(7.25)|24.55|16.28| |EPS|28.65|1.17|(7.20)|24.55|16.28| |盈利能力比率(%)| | | | | | |毛利润率|30.36|30.98|24.68|25.95|26.86| |EBITDA|36.07|34.09|27.73|28.55|28.84| |净利润率|22.77|19.91|15.60|16.80|17.45| |ROE|15.37|14.47|12.68|14.55|15.45| |ROA|10.48|9.75|8.56|10.00|10.96| |偿债能力(倍)| | | | | | |净负债比率(%)|(21.01)|(21.15)|(28.11)|(32.36)|(36.18)| |流动比率|1.34|1.07|1.18|1.34|1.57| |速动比率|1.34|1.07|1.18|1.34|1.57| |营运能力(天)| | | | | | |总资产周转率(次)|0.46|0.49|0.55|0.60|0.63| |应收账款周转天数|6.52|8.44|9.38|7.87|7.99| |应付账款周转天数|33.37|72.38|90.48|81.49|74.09| |存货周转天数|0.46|0.39|0.37|0.37|0.37| |现金转换周期|(26.38)|(63.55)|(80.72)|(73.25)|(65.73)| |估值指标| | | | | | |PE|11.70|11.56|12.46|10