报告公司投资评级 - 买入（维持） [3] 报告的核心观点 - 此前判断大股东或将尽早落地股份增持计划已得到验证且仍在进行，自2024年9月开始国发集团主动增持，截至6月27日累计完成5轮增持，累计增持金额近18亿元，反映国资对苏州银行的看好，苏州银行也有巩固大股东基本盘等诉求 [6] - 重申对苏州银行的坚定看好，其是优质标的，预计中报营收业绩较一季报改善，归母净利润延续大个位数领先表现，在资本补充到位下能保持双位数扩表增速，息差趋势更优，资产质量好、拨备覆盖率高，全年业绩预计居行业第一梯队 [6] - 大股东多次增持凸显对苏州银行长期投资价值的认可，中期ROE回升路径清晰，短期业绩稳定性优且具高股息属性，重申“买入”评级和首推组合，维持盈利增速预测 [6] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 事件 - 6月27日大股东国发集团增持苏州银行1211万股，持股比例提升至15%成为控股股东，苏州财政局成为实际控制人，且计划自7月1日起6个月内增持不少于4亿人民币 [1] 财务数据及盈利预测 |项目|2023|2024|2025E|2026E|2027E| |----|----|----|----|----|----| |营业总收入（百万元）|11,866.12|12,223.79|12,621.08|13,415.66|14,377.10| |营业总收入同比增长率（%）|0.88|3.01|3.25|6.30|7.17| |资产减值损失（百万元）|1,647.96|1,127.89|1,481.27|1,842.34|2,223.63| |资产减值损失同比增长率（%）|(40.38)|(31.56)|31.33|24.38|20.70| |归母净利润（百万元）|4,600.65|5,068.21|5,440.45|5,867.74|6,353.92| |归母净利润同比增长率（%）|17.41|10.16|7.34|7.85|8.29| |每股收益（元/股）|1.22|1.26|1.16|1.26|1.37| |ROE（%）|11.96|11.59|10.87|10.47|10.58| |不良贷款率（%）|0.84|0.83|0.82|0.82|0.82| |拨备覆盖率（%）|522.77|483.50|421.74|408.92|410.76| |市盈率|8.75|8.12|7.54|6.97|6.41| |市净率|0.99|0.89|0.76|0.70|0.65| [2] 市场数据 - 2025年6月30日收盘价8.78元，一年内最高/最低9.25/6.60元，市净率0.8，股息率4.56%，流通A股市值38,535百万元，上证指数/深证成指3,444.43/10,465.12 [3] 基础数据 - 2025年3月31日每股净资产10.90元，资产负债率91.73%，总股本/流通A股(百万)4,471/4,389，流通B股/H股（百万）-/- [3] 国发集团增持情况 - 自2024年9月开始增持，截至6月27日累计完成5轮增持，累计增持2.3亿股，累计金额近18亿元，按上限国发集团仍可增持2.23亿股，对应增持金额约20亿元 [6][7][8] 上市银行估值比较 |上市银行|代码|收盘价|流通市值(亿元)|P/E(X)（25E/26E）|P/B(X)（25E/26E）|ROAE（25E/26E）|ROAA（25E/26E）|股息收益率（25E/26E）| |----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| |工商银行|601398.SH|7.59|2,628|7.51/7.14|0.69/0.65|9.6%/9.4%|0.74%/0.71%|4.1%/4.2%| |建设银行|601939.SH|9.44|627|7.63/7.40|0.73/0.68|9.9%/9.5%|0.80%/0.78%|4.1%/4.0%| |农业银行|601288.SH|5.88|1,683|7.43/7.03|0.74/0.69|10.3%/10.2%|0.66%/0.63%|4.1%/4.3%| |中国银行|601988.SH|5.62|1,133|7.24/6.86|0.65/0.61|9.2%/9.1%|0.71%/0.70%|4.3%/4.5%| |邮储银行|601658.SH|5.47|565|8.07/7.73|0.72/0.68|9.4%/9.1%|0.49%/0.47%|3.9%/4.0%| |招商银行|600036.SH|45.95|4,865|8.04/7.80|1.02/0.93|13.2%/12.5%|1.20%/1.15%|4.4%/4.4%| |中信银行|601998.SH|8.50|418|7.25/7.00|0.65/0.60|9.2%/8.9%|0.72%/0.71%|4.2%/4.2%| |民生银行|600016.SH|4.75|1,065|7.56/7.64|0.37/0.35|4.9%/4.7%|0.41%/0.39%|4.0%/4.0%| |浦发银行|600000.SH|13.88|1,323|9.07/8.13|0.60/0.59|6.7%/7.4%|0.52%/0.54%|3.0%/3.3%| |兴业银行|601166.SH|23.34|3,727|6.53/6.21|0.59/0.55|9.4%/9.2%|0.73%/0.72%|4.5%/4.6%| |光大银行|601818.SH|4.15|665|6.41/6.09|0.48/0.46|7.7%/7.7%|0.62%/0.63%|4.6%/4.7%| |华夏银行|600015.SH|7.91|403|6.32/7.00|0.40/0.38|6.5%/5.6%|0.50%/0.44%|5.1%/4.0%| |平安银行|000001.SZ|12.07|985|5.68/5.64|0.52/0.48|9.4%/8.9%|0.75%/0.72%|5.0%/5.0%| |南京银行|601009.SH|11.62|725|6.93/6.31|0.78/0.72|12.1%/11.9%|0.80%/0.79%|4.5%/4.8%| |宁波银行|002142.SZ|27.36|901|6.55/6.09|0.79/0.71|12.6%/12.3%|0.86%/0.81%|3.3%/3.5%| |江苏银行|600919.SH|11.94|1,776|6.61/6.03|0.84/0.75|13.4%/13.2%|0.87%/0.85%|4.4%/4.7%| |上海银行|601229.SH|10.61|976|5.74/5.69|0.59/0.55|10.7%/10.0%|0.81%/0.77%|4.7%/5.4%| |杭州银行|600926.SH|16.82|766|6.47/5.69|0.89/0.79|15.3%/14.7%|0.87%/0.89%|3.3%/3.2%| |苏州银行|002966.SZ|8.78|328|7.54/6.97|0.76/0.70|10.9%/10.5%|0.77%/0.74%|4.2%/4.5%| |成都银行|601838.SH|20.10|447|6.39/5.89|0.94/0.85|15.7%/15.1%|1.02%/0.97%|4.4%/4.7%| |重庆银行|601963.SH|10.86|66|7.28/6.68|0.65/0.60|9.2%/9.4%|0.66%/0.64%|3.8%/4.1%| |厦门银行|601187.SH|6.79|80|6.66/6.75|0.65/0.61|10.1%/9.3%|0.74%/0.70%|4.6%/5.3%| |无锡银行|600908.SH|6.31|96|6.21/5.87|0.60/0.55|10.1%/9.8%|0.87%/0.83%|3.6%/3.8%| |常熟银行|601128.SH|7.37|210|5.29/4.67|0.69/0.62|13.8%/14.0%|1.16%/1.17%|3.4%/3.4%| |江阴银行|002807.SZ|4.75|110|5.50/5.19|0.58/0.53|11.0%/10.7%|1.01%/0.99%|4.2%/4.4%| |苏农银行|603323.SH|5.61|98|4.97/4.64|0.52/0.48|11.0%/10.7%|0.93%/0.92%|3.2%/3.4%| |张家港行|002839.SZ|4.50|87|6.09/5.77|0.58/0.54|9.8%/9.7%|0.83%/0.81%|4.4%/4.5%| |瑞丰银行|601528.SH|5.79|97|5.40/4.89|0.55/0.50|10.6%/10.7%|0.92%/0.91%|3.5%/3.8%| |紫金银行|601860.SH|3.00|82|7.63/7.48|0.50/0.44|6.8%/6.2%|0.50%/0.45%|3.3%/3.0%| |沪农商行|601825.SH|9.70|534|7.54/7.28|0.71/0.66|9.7%/9.4%|0.83%/0.80%|4.5%/4.5%| |渝农商行|601077.SH|7.14|384|6.74/6.35|0.61/0.57|9.3%/9.3%|0.79%/0.77%|4.3%/4.5%| |A股板块平均| - | - | - |7.14/6.81|0.71/0.66|10.4%/10.1%|0.79%/0.77%|4.2%/4.3%| [9]