报告行业投资评级 未提及 报告的核心观点 - 2026年反内卷主题行情或不可避免，时机依各省份地方政策落地推进情况而定 [5] - 需关注有色和反内卷品种涨跌跷跷板效应、石化和黑色品种近月合约进入交割月后的反内卷行情、中东战争对甲醇和原油及相关品种的走强预期 [2][5] - 春节后第一周商品市场主流资金选择有变化，软商品、饲料、化工等板块资金大幅流入，棉花、白糖、橡胶、玉米、豆粕等品种值得关注 [4] - 黄金和白银节后略有反弹但波动率下降，有色和贵金属品种需震荡整理，交易难度上升 [4] - 农产品中蛋白饲料难走牛市，美国新年度大豆种植面积预计上升，巴西和阿根廷大豆丰产，国内生猪有反内卷预期，需求端或下调，豆粕菜粕难走强 [4] - 2026年石化板块在反内卷框架内运行，基本面虽不佳但最坏时候已过，价格下行空间有限，原油价格波动带动部分化工品震荡走强，中东战争或驱动原油、甲醇、贵金属等品种走强，OPEC可能加快增产，短期偏强、中期追高需谨慎 [4] - 黑色板块焦煤03合约进入交割月后支撑价格明确，反内卷背景下煤炭下行空间有限，内外供应端扰动或使焦煤反复宽幅波动 [4] 各板块情况总结 资金流动 - 各板块资金流动绝对金额分别为：总量181.74亿、贵金属39.47亿、有色90.05亿、黑色20.56亿、能源9.13亿、化工28.13亿、饲料养殖20.59亿、油脂油料21.89亿、软商品25.06亿；资金流动百分比分别为：总量32.4%、贵金属20.4%、有色59.5%、黑色45.9%、能源41.6%、化工69.5%、饲料养殖75.0%、油脂油料48.5%、软商品100.0% [8] 黑色和有色周度数据 | 品种 | 价格分位 | 库存分位 | 估值分位 | 持仓分位 | 仓差分位 | 年化基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿石 | 17.4% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 62.2% | 23.6% | 1.7% | | 螺纹钢 | 9.2% | 0.0% | 18.5% | 84.7% | 2.6% | 28.1% | | 热卷 | 6.2% | 100.0% | 9.9% | 94.7% | 12.6% | 6.5% | | 焦煤 | 13.4% | 48.9% | 0.0% | 50.8% | -2.5% | 106.7% | | 焦炭 | 10.6% | 40.6% | 76.2% | 61.7% | 41.0% | -56.3% | | 硅铁 | 1.6% | 43.9% | 0.0% | 42.7% | -40.3% | -50.6% | | 硅锰 | 4.1% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 43.2% | -11.5% | -28.6% | | 黄金 | 88.5% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | -3.7% | | 白银 | 70.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% | 25.2% | -22.6% | | 铜 | 94.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 28.3% | 37.4% | -16.2% | | 铝 | 80.5% | 84.2% | 100.0% | 33.2% | 11.6% | -14.1% | | 锡 | 91.4% | 64.4% | 5.3% | 56.4% | 100.0% | -71.8% | | 锌 | 54.3% | 56.9% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 3.3% | -8.3% | | 碳酸锂 | 22.0% | 56.7% | 34.9% | 16.4% | 11.8% | -14.1% | | 镍 | 14.6% | 100.0% | 2.7% | 75.1% | 15.8% | -9.9% | | 不锈钢 | 17.8% | 100.0% | 82.3% | 0.0% | -7.2% | 23.3% | | 氧化铝 | 6.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 29.7% | 55.3% | -30.1% | | 工业硅 | 1.9% | 90.7% | 0.0% | 64.8% | 9.0% | 41.3% | | 原油 | 18.8% | 58.7% | 0.0% | 34.9% | -6.9% | -16.5% | [8] 能化周度数据 | 品种 | 价格分位 | 库存分位 | 估值分位 | 持仓分位 | 仓差分位 | 年化基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 17.8% | 64.4% | 8.5% | 50.2% | 6.7% | 18.4% | | 低硫油 | 10.9% | 18.8% | 0.0% | 52.7% | -52.5% | 12.0% | | 沥青 | 23.6% | 71.0% | 88.9% | 0.0% | -6.9% | -8.4% | | 橡胶 | 87.1% | 0.0% | 26.4% | 85.0% | 15.5% | -5.7% | | 20号胶 | 76.5% | 22.1% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 23.1% | 60.3% | | 合成橡胶 | 34.6% | 100.0% | 21.8% | 7.7% | 11.7% | -8.2% | | 苯乙烯 | 26.9% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 52.8% | 9.5% | 15.1% | | 甲醇 | 6.8% | 100.0% | 39.4% | 34.2% | 74.5% | -101.9% | | 乙二醇 | 0.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 4.7% | -21.5% | | 短纤 | 15.3% | 66.3% | 64.0% | 0.0% | -38.1% | 1.0% | | 尿素 | 18.3% | 63.6% | 59.1% | 89.6% | -0.1% | -15.9% | | 聚丙烯 | 10.4% | 100.0% | 22.4% | 42.3% | -42.9% | -3.9% | | 塑料 | 10.6% | 80.3% | 0.0% | 79.5% | 57.4% | 0.8% | | PVC | 3.4% | 98.1% | 0.0% | 88.2% | 6.2% | -20.9% | | PTA | 38.8% | 17.2% | 100.0% | 63.1% | -6.8% | -8.7% | | LPG | 24.4% | 66.8% | 0.0% | 11.5% | -2.1% | -28.9% | | 纯碱 | 2.5% | 93.2% | 4.7% | 39.1% | -6.9% | -12.9% | | 玻璃 | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 28.4% | -1.2% | -53.1% | | 对二甲苯 | 27.2% | 97.3% | 0.0% | 57.4% | -13.2% | -12.0% | | 纸浆 | 7.7% | 100.0% | 46.6% | 48.6% | 24.9% | -13.6% | | 烧碱 | 15.2% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | -33.8% | -39.7% | | 瓶片 | 19.3% | 46.3% | 0.0% | 55.8% | -29.9% | 5.7% | | 生猪 | 5.2% | 10.3% | 60.9% | 9.3% | -46.0% | -15.9% | [10] 农产品周度数据 | 品种 | 价格分位 | 库存分位 | 估值分位 | 持仓分位 | 仓差分位 | 年化基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 8.9% | 100.0% | 29.2% | 63.2% | 6.6% | 32.5% | | 菜粕 | 13.5% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 96.8% | 11.7% | 19.5% | | 豆油 | 24.1% | 100.0% | 48.3% | 69.3% | 25.9% | 18.4% | | 菜油 | 35.4% | 20.1% | 100.0% | 73.8% | 22.6% | 46.6% | | 棕榈油 | 19.1% | 57.6% | 0.0% | 32.6% | -10.6% | -7.5% | | 鸡蛋 | 12.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -52.7% | -116.7% | | 白糖 | 2.1% | 37.9% | 100.0% | 80.4% | 44.3% | 3.4% | | 玉米 | 37.2% | 5.0% | 91.4% | 49.8% | 11.7% | 2.1% | | 玉米淀粉 | 10.1% | 59.0% | 20.5% | 67.9% | 13.2% | 27.1% | | 棉花 | 32.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 86.0% | 7.4% | 45.4% | | 棉纱 | 15.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 54.2% | 36.2% | 14.3% | | 苹果 | 80.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.5% | 47.1% | -81.0% | | 红枣 | 3.2% | 39.7% | 0.0% | 24.4% | 9.6% | -56.0% | | 豆一 | 10.0% | 37.8% | 0.0% | 99.2% | 6.8% | -74.1% | | 豆二 | 18.6% | 77.2% | 0.0% | 90.5% | 8.0% | 47.0% | | 花生 | 11.1% | 100.0% | 81.6% | 0.0% | -7.5% | 11.9% | [11]