报告公司投资评级 - 维持“买入”评级 [1][4] 报告的核心观点 - 24Q1公司营业收入11.08亿元同比+7.05%，归母净利1.21亿元同比+39.37%，扣非归母净利1.04亿元同比+45.79% [1] - 24Q1啤酒销量同比+0.77%至26.38万吨，吨收入同比+6.2%至4201元，高档啤酒销量同比+15.05%带动产品结构升级 [1] - 24Q1净利率同比+2.5pct至11.4%，毛利率、销售/管理/研发费率、所得税率、营业税金及附加占比、其他收益占收入比重、资产减值损失等因素有不同变化 [1] - 23年前三季度97纯生销量同比增长33.3%，23年发布多款高端产品，未来将深化“3+N”品牌战略并积极布局产能 [1] - 调整24 - 25年收入&归母净利润预测，预计24 - 26年公司收入增速分别为8%/7%/6%，归母净利润增速分别为18%/12%/10% [1] 财务数据和估值 | 项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (百万元) | 4,928.14 | 5,378.04 | 5,794.84 | 6,199.32 | 6,592.97 | | 增长率 (%) | 8.60 | 9.13 | 7.75 | 6.98 | 6.35 | | EBITDA(百万元) | 880.51 | 944.19 | 1,007.18 | 1,163.04 | 1,326.25 | | 归属母公司净利润 (百万元) | 598.26 | 623.51 | 734.72 | 826.07 | 910.67 | | 增长率 (%) | (2.11) | 4.22 | 17.84 | 12.43 | 10.24 | | EPS(元/股) | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.41 | | 市盈率 (P/E) | 31.19 | 29.92 | 25.40 | 22.59 | 20.49 | | 市净率 (P/B) | 1.94 | 1.87 | 1.79 | 1.71 | 1.63 | | 市销率 (P/S) | 3.79 | 3.47 | 3.22 | 3.01 | 2.83 | | EV/EBITDA | 13.29 | 11.96 | 12.20 | 10.39 | 9.06 | [3] 资产负债表 | 项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货币资金 | 6,713.41 | 7,093.61 | 7,106.54 | 7,208.20 | 7,194.48 | | 应收票据及应收账款 | 18.56 | 22.43 | 16.52 | 25.50 | 19.56 | | 预付账款 | 23.88 | 24.40 | 25.80 | 26.07 | 27.87 | | 存货 | 1,802.52 | 1,804.32 | 1,924.83 | 1,942.11 | 2,053.96 | | 其他 | 351.29 | 186.67 | 206.53 | 219.07 | 250.32 | | 流动资产合计 | 8,909.66 | 9,131.44 | 9,280.23 | 9,420.96 | 9,546.18 | | 长期股权投资 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 固定资产 | 2,679.82 | 2,980.04 | 2,981.26 | 3,140.49 | 3,495.87 | | 在建工程 | 417.27 | 472.66 | 692.66 | 942.66 | 1,042.66 | | 无形资产 | 1,370.56 | 1,322.19 | 1,311.87 | 1,310.04 | 1,316.21 | | 其他 | 569.05 | 611.62 | 646.32 | 658.66 | 659.32 | | 非流动资产合计 | 5,036.71 | 5,386.51 | 5,632.11 | 6,051.84 | 6,514.07 | | 资产总计 | 13,946.37 | 14,517.94 | 14,912.34 | 15,472.80 | 16,060.25 | | 短期借款 | 991.59 | 1,598.45 | 1,480.00 | 1,400.00 | 1,340.00 | | 应付票据及应付账款 | 516.10 | 624.08 | 559.21 | 676.33 | 622.39 | | 其他 | 1,165.42 | 683.83 | 1,444.20 | 1,452.81 | 1,587.79 | | 流动负债合计 | 2,673.12 | 2,906.37 | 3,483.41 | 3,529.15 | 3,550.18 | | 长期借款 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 应付债券 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 其他 | 968.11 | 938.11 | 940.00 | 950.00 | 960.00 | | 非流动负债合计 | 968.11 | 938.11 | 940.00 | 950.00 | 960.00 | | 负债合计 | 4,277.09 | 4,477.93 | 4,423.41 | 4,479.15 | 4,510.18 | [7] 利润表 | 项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 4,928.14 | 5,378.04 | 5,794.84 | 6,199.32 | 6,592.97 | | 营业成本 | 2,836.83 | 3,075.26 | 3,227.15 | 3,395.37 | 3,596.47 | | 营业税金及附加 | 439.03 | 460.84 | 496.62 | 531.28 | 565.02 | | 销售费用 | 737.66 | 817.21 | 875.02 | 929.90 | 982.35 | | 管理费用 | 340.14 | 399.75 | 417.23 | 440.15 | 461.51 | | 研发费用 | 165.91 | 151.18 | 156.46 | 161.18 | 164.82 | | 财务费用 | (226.49) | (182.31) | (208.92) | (213.31) | (216.45) | | 资产/信用减值损失 | (15.74) | (17.29) | (13.50) | (25.00) | (26.00) | | 公允价值变动收益 | 6.45 | 9.19 | 17.71 | 15.00 | 30.00 | | 投资净收益 | 1.56 | 3.66 | 25.00 | 22.00 | 23.00 | | 其他 | (65.02) | (82.49) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 营业利润 | 707.82 | 743.03 | 860.50 | 966.75 | 1,066.25 | | 营业外收入 | 2.29 | 3.37 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | | 营业外支出 | 3.79 | 6.40 | 6.00 | 5.40 | 5.93 | | 利润总额 | 706.32 | 740.00 | 859.50 | 966.35 | 1,065.32 | | 所得税 | 100.71 | 96.50 | 111.30 | 125.14 | 137.96 | | 净利润 | 605.60 | 643.50 | 748.19 | 841.21 | 927.36 | | 少数股东损益 | 7.34 | 19.99 | 13.47 | 15.14 | 16.69 | | 归属于母公司净利润 | 598.26 | 623.51 | 734.72 | 826.07 | 910.67 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.41 | [7] 现金流量表 | 项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 净利润 | 605.60 | 643.50 | 734.72 | 826.07 | 910.67 | | 折旧摊销 | 282.47 | 289.66 | 329.10 | 372.60 | 438.44 | | 财务费用 | (208.90) | (111.98) | (208.92) | (213.31) | (216.45) | | 投资损失 | (1.56) | (3.66) | (10.00) | (10.00) | (10.00) | | 营运资金变动 | (186.91) | (14.24) | (71.53) | 113.33 | (8.59) | | 其它 | 100.98 | 15.93 | 31.18 | 30.14 | 46.69 | | 经营活动现金流 | 591.70 | 819.20 | 804.56 | 1,118.83 | 1,160.77 | | 资本支出 | 392.82 | 626.90 | 538.11 | 770.00 | 890.00 | | 长期投资 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 其他 | (853.51) | (1,133.26) | (1,118.52) | (1,585.00) | (1,850.00) | | 投资活动现金流 | (460.69) | (506.37) | (580.42) | (815.00) | (960.00) | | 债权融资 | 325.01 | 289.14 | 88.07 | 134.31 | 156.45 | | 股权融资 | (262.52) | 0.12 | (299.28) | (336.48) | (370.94) | | 其他 | (289.05) | (497.58) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 筹资活动现金流 | (226.56) | (208.31) | (211.21) | (202.18) | (214.50) | | 汇率变动影响 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.00 | 12.00 | 13.00 | | 现金净增加额 | (95.55) | 104.51 | 27.93 | 113.66 | (0.73) | [8] 主要财务比率 | 项目 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入增长率 | 8.60% | 9.13% | 7.75% | 6.98% | 6.35% | | 营业利润增长率 | -2.56% | 4.98% | 15.81% | 12.35% | 10.29% | | 归属于母公司净利润增长率 | -2.11% | 4.22% | 17.84% | 12.43% | 10.24% | | 毛利率 | 42.44% | 42.82% | 44.31% | 45.23% | 45.45% | | 净利率 | 12.14% | 11.59% | 12.68% | 13.33% | 13.81% | | 销售费用率 | 6.22% | 6.25% | 7.05% | 7.57% | 7.95% |