As bitcoin (BTC) struggles to hold above $90,000, market sentiment has once again slipped into extreme fear. Over the past year, fear or extreme fear has accounted for more than 30% of all readings on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. The index currently stands at 17, firmly within the extreme fear section. Fear has dominated sentiment since the October liquidation crash more than two months ago, as bitcoin dropped 36% from its October all-time high. While the cryptocurrency market has yet to stage a mea ...

媒体叙事与市场情绪的背离 - 当前许多媒体为获取点击量而专注于煽动代际对立等情绪化叙事 偏离了真实数据的重要性[2][3] - 例如 大量文章引用全美房地产经纪人协会的研究称首次购房者中位年龄已升至40岁 暗示婴儿潮一代囤积房产阻碍了年轻人购房[4][5] - 然而 更可靠的数据来源如人口普查局和美联储显示首次购房者平均年龄实为36岁 且低于2000年代和2010年代大部分时间的水平[6] - NAR调查方法存在偏差 其2022年调查仅获得3%的完整回复率 且老年人更倾向于回复邮件调查 导致数据偏高[7] - 尽管数据显示美国重复购房者平均年龄从2000年代初的44岁升至2024年的48岁 但需考虑美国人口平均年龄本身比2000年增长了4岁[8] - 综合来看 美国社会在老龄化 但首次购房者的年龄却比上一代人更年轻 这与媒体渲染的悲观叙事相反[9][10] 市场情绪指标反映的真实状况 - 媒体渲染的悲观故事还包括对人工智能驱动股市泡沫的恐惧 这体现在CNN恐惧与贪婪指数中[11] - 尽管新闻试图加剧恐惧且平均投资者非常担忧 但市场表现却相反 截至发稿时股市在过去一年仍上涨约13.5%[12] - 封闭式基金相对于其资产净值的折价是衡量市场情绪的一个关键数据指标 截至发稿时平均折价率约为5.3%[13] - CEF在公开市场交易 其价格可能与其投资组合价值差异很大 平均折价率可以反映投资者的真实情绪[14] - 当前5.3%的折价率略低于约7%的长期平均水平 表明新闻中的“恐惧”并未促使人们抛售[14] - 由此得出的最重要结论是 媒体并非实际市场情绪的可靠指标[15]

Up and down trend with arrows and graph isolated on dark background. Falling and rising graph with buy and sell buttons. Stock exchange concept. Trader profit and loss. Vector illustration.gettyI’ve seen a lot more news stories trying to do something that seems a bit weird these days: stoke anger between generations.I bring this up because it’s an example of why, when it comes to picking stocks (and 8%+ paying closed-end funds), we simply can’t trust the media anymore.Why? Because many outlets are so focuse ...