Flash | 10 Jun 2026 09:11:32 ET │ 7 pages US Economics May Core PCE tracking 0.39%MoM after CPI CITI'S TAKE Based on details of a 0.21% increase in core CPI, we are tracking a 0.39%MoM increase in core PCE, up from 0.37% but highly dependent on details of PPI data tomorrow. Most notably, an 8% increase in portfolio management fees with rising equity prices is boosting our estimate for May core PCE. Weaker motor vehicle insurance in CPI will not enter PCE the same way. Shelter inflation was a bit stronger th ...

CITI'S TAKE Details of CPI data for May this morning should be mostly benign, with another increase in headline CPI reflecting rising average gas prices but a more modest 0.22% increase in core CPI. Modest core goods prices should be consistent with limited through of higher energy prices, and other details like subdued shelter and moderate services prices should not be indicative of reaccelerating inflation. But core PCE inflation should again be much stronger than CPI, with our forecast for a 0.37%MoM inc ...