宏观经济背景 - 2024年9月美国 headline inflation 同比上涨至3%，为1月以来最高水平 [1] - 失业率为4.3%，劳动力市场略有疲软，就业增长放缓 [1] - 修订数据显示，从2024年4月到2025年3月期间，新增就业岗位比此前认为的减少了91.1万个 [1] 美联储政策动向 - 尽管通胀持续，美联储在9月FOMC会议上已进行降息 [2] - 市场预计10月28日至29日会议再次降息25个基点的可能性为96.7% [2] - 此次降息将使联邦基金目标利率降至3.75%至4%的区间 [2] - 核心CPI保持在3.1%的水平 [2] 政策考量与预期 - 美联储面临双重使命的两难选择，但很可能优先考虑就业支持 [1] - 政策转向旨在通过当前支持就业来防止未来出现更严重的问题 [2]

The long-held dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to maintain stable prices and maximize employment is under increasing scrutiny in the nation's capital as GOP pressure on the central bank intensifies. House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) has introduced a new bill that would seek to end the Fed's dual mandate so that central bank policymakers could focus exclusively on one goal: controlling inflation. "For too long, the Federal Reserve has been stretched between competing objec ...