The Fed is tasked by Congress with a " dual mandate " to keep inflation low and employment high using the fed funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge to borrow money from one another. The fed funds rate affects borrowing costs on short-term loans like credit cards and car loans, and indirectly influences longer-term loans like 30-year mortgages. When inflation is high, the Fed raises the rate to discourage borrowing and cool down the economy, allowing supply and demand to rebalance. When the job ...

经济指标定义 - 滞胀指同时出现三个预警信号：增长疲软或负增长、高失业率和高通胀[1] - 国内生产总值(GDP)衡量境内生产总量 国民生产总值(GNP)追踪全球范围美国人的收入 国民总收入(GNI)汇总工资、利润和税收减去补贴[2][3] - 消费者价格指数(CPI)代表家庭购物篮 个人消费支出(PCE)范围更广并调整替代效应 核心通胀剔除食品和能源波动[4] 就业市场监测 - 失业率和非农就业人数变化由劳工统计局每月发布 每周失业申请是更高频的监测指标[5] - 当申请失业救济人数上升且薪资增长放缓时 可能形成滞胀的预警信号[5] 历史对比分析 - 1975和1980年出现典型滞胀：失业率超7%-8% 两位数通胀 GDP大幅收缩[6] - 2020年疫情初期出现失业率飙升和GDP下降 但通胀率降至近零 属于无通胀的停滞[7] - 2022年刺激政策推动通胀超9% 经济小幅收缩但失业率保持低位 仅满足三个条件中的两个[7] 当前经济状况 - 当前失业率温和 PCE通胀率在2%高位 GDP表现强劲 远未达到1970年代滞胀水平[8] - 贵金属表现突出：黄金年内上涨超40% 白银涨幅接近60% 源于美联储降息环境下的通胀预期[8] 重点监测指标 - 持续关注就业数据、CPI、PCE和GDP指标 特别关注服务通胀及住房保险医疗成本[9] - 能源价格和美元走势影响显著：油价上涨或美元走弱会快速推高整体通胀[10] - 需要监控经通胀调整的实际收入与需求关系 关注储蓄消耗和信用卡债务累积情况[11] 风险评估结论 - 当前存在小写滞胀风险可能性 但基于现有数据极不可能重现1970-80年代程度的滞胀[11] - 若增长、就业和价格三个指标同时亮起红灯 则将构成明确的滞胀警报信号[11]

经济数据表现 - 国内生产总值呈现过热态势 通胀持续高位运行[3] - 失业率数据表明企业未进行大规模裁员 就业市场保持稳定[3] - 每小时将公布生产者价格指数数据 通胀趋势未朝正确方向发展[8] 货币政策立场 - 美联储对利率决策保持适应性态度 不预设具体降息路径[16][28][30] - 中性利率模型显示约200个基点的置信区间 实际范围在2.5%至3.5%之间[24] - 政策制定更关注经济对利率水平的实时反应 而非单纯盯住中性利率[25] 通胀驱动因素 - 供应商试图转嫁成本上升压力 包括关税和健康保险等多项成本[5][6] - 消费者出现明显的消费降级行为 从品牌产品转向自有品牌选择[7] - 观察到典型的相对价格权衡现象 特定商品价格上涨但不一定导致广泛通胀[7] 劳动力市场动态 - 劳动力供给与需求同步下降 移民政策调整和临时身份撤销产生影响[10][11] - 每年超过130万65岁以上人口退出劳动力市场[11] - 形成低招聘低解雇环境 失业率上升幅度预计相对有限[10][11][12] 企业信心与关税影响 - 企业不确定性迷雾开始消散 更多企业采取行动而非持观望态度[13][14] - 各行业受关税影响程度不同 部分行业获得更多清晰度而部分行业仍面临不确定性[15] - 企业根据对关税范围的感知进行规划 而非每日跟踪新闻动态[14] 生产率与成本传导 - 经济中出现显著的生产率提升现象[10][30] - 生产率提高减轻了成本传导压力[10] - 消费者对价格上涨的抵制行为限制了通胀下行空间[9]

The stock market has notched a remarkable recovery from its early-April lows, delivering healthy double-digit returns in the wake of mounting optimism that stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and Fed interest rate cuts offset tariff headwinds. Major market returns since April 8 lows: S&P 500: 32.7% Nasdaq: 46.7% Dow Jones Industrial Average: 22.4% The rally has lifted the major market averages, including the S&P 500 benchmark index, to all-time highs in September, frustrating many bears who ...

美联储政策立场 - 美联储当前政策利率为4%至4.25%，被认为过于限制性，可能损害劳动力市场[1][6] - 有观点认为应将美联储的目标利率降至2.5%左右的“中性”水平，该水平既不会过紧也不会过松[5][6] - 另一种市场观点认为美联储仅需降息50个基点，而非250个基点，即可使政策更符合经济状况[12] 中性利率评估 - 基于5年期5年期远期利率等市场指标，市场对实际中性利率的估计约为2.3%[5] - 有学术观点提出的实际中性利率估计为零，远低于市场共识，该估算依赖于对储蓄大幅增加的假设[4][11] - 通胀保值债券（TIPS）市场暗示的长期实际中性利率比该学术估计高出约2个百分点[4] 通胀与劳动力市场动态 - 当前官方统计数据中租金通胀仍以较高速度增长，但实际市场价格正在下降，这一差异值得关注[3] - 核心通胀和整体通胀指标在过去四个月均呈上升趋势，这可能会延缓美联储快速或大幅降息的决策[9] - 人工智能等技术进步被视为生产率冲击，可能对通胀构成下行压力[11] 政策影响与风险评估 - 尽管劳动力市场停滞，招聘活动放缓，但并未出现失业救济初请人数急剧上升或大规模裁员等市场崩溃迹象[14][15] - 有分析指出，货币政策应平衡通胀和失业双重目标，而非仅关注就业[9] - 供给侧逻辑，如税收激励、商业投资扩张、放松管制和能源政策，被认为能通过增加商品供应来解决通胀问题[7][10]

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the central bank is in a "challenging situation" with an ongoing risk of faster-than-expected inflation at the same time that weak job growth has raised concern about the health of the labor market. In prepared comments to Rhode Island's Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell offered little indication of when he thinks the Fed might next cut interest rates, noting that there was danger to both cutting too fast and risking ...

美联储政策立场 - 美联储主席鲍威尔表示劳动力市场疲软已超过对顽固通胀的担忧 导致其支持上周下调关键利率[1] - 联邦公开市场委员会进行年内首次降息 因劳动力供需同步减弱且关税短期影响推高通胀[2] - 当前面临通胀上行风险与就业下行风险并存的挑战性局面 不存在无风险政策路径[3] 经济环境特征 - 鲍威尔描述的状况符合滞胀特征 即增长放缓与高通胀并存[3] - 虽严重程度远低于1970年代至80年代初 但仍对美联储构成政策挑战[3] - 国债收益率小幅下跌 股市对鲍威尔言论反应平淡[4] 未来政策导向 - 美联储对当前政策路径表示满意 但暗示若需要更宽松可能进一步降息[4] - 就业下行风险增加改变了实现政策目标的风险平衡[4] - 当前政策立场仍保持适度限制性 为应对潜在经济变化留有余地[4]

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday if inflation cools off the central bank has some space to cut its interest rate target. “I think eventually, at a gradual pace, rates can come down a fair amount if we can get this stagflationary dust out of the air,” Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. In terms of where the Fed can go versus its current target rate range of between 4% to 4.25%, Goolsbee said a neutral rate is something like 100 to 125 basis points lowe ...

I'm not attempting to provide an impossible degree of precision, but a general ballpark. Based on this analysis, I believe the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid 2% area, almost two percentage points lower than current policy. The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with the important goal of promoting price stability for the good of all American households and businesses.And I am committed to bringing inflation sustainably back to 2%. However, leading policy restrictive by such a large degree brings s ...

New Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran argued in his first major speech that U.S. interest rates are far too high and risk †unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment†if not reduced substantially. ...