live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Colin Martin who is the director of fixed income strategist Schwab Center for Financial Research.Thank you so much for joining us. Happy Friday to you, Colin. So, how are you and your team thinking this week about the lack of data we've been getting and then also um about some of the data that we have got and what that's actually been telling us.Yeah, it's it's been an interesting week for sure where we still have some data. I think that's important ...

利率政策预期 - 美联储预计在9月17日将关键利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25% [1][2] - 105位经济学家预测此次降息，较上月61%的多数预期大幅上升 [2] - 市场已完全定价9月降息，并预期今年将有三次降息，高于几周前的两次 [2] 政策调整原因 - 劳动力市场疲软是主要驱动因素，8月就业增长停滞及截至3月的12个月就业数据被大幅下修 [1] - 尽管存在关税带来的通胀风险，美联储官员仍暗示将放松货币政策 [2] - 建议忽略当前通胀水平，放松政策以支持劳动力市场 [3] 政策分歧与不确定性 - 两位分析师预期降息50个基点，部分董事会成员可能反对并投票支持更大幅度降息或维持利率不变 [3][4] - 政策制定环境困难，可能存在更多异议，过于激进的降息可能导致政策错误 [5] - 特朗普总统对美联储主席鲍威尔不愿降息提出批评 [3] 未来利率路径预测 - 64位经济学家预计到2025年底利率将下降50个基点，37%预测今年底前降息75个基点，较8月的22%大幅上升 [5] - 超过60%的经济学家认为未来一年更可能出现通胀飙升或通胀与失业率快速上升并存的情况 [6]