行业与公司 * 行业为中国宏观经济与金融市场[1] * 公司为德意志银行(Deutsche Bank) 其研究团队是报告的作者[4] 核心观点与论据 * 中国金融市场出现风险偏好情绪升温 与经济增长基本面出现分化 股市自7月以来录得两位数涨幅 创10年新高 而债券市场出现抛售 同时期经济活动却有所放缓[1] * 此轮风险偏好转向由三大因素驱动[2] * 政策引发的经济放缓旨在遏制供应过剩 "反内卷"政策成为首要任务 承诺遏制低价竞争并促进产能削减 这可能导致工业生产和固定资产投资下降 但若成功将改善价格预期和企业盈利[5][6] * 财政扩张创造了充裕的流动性 政府杠杆速度快于家庭和企业总和 其债务每季度增加超过GDP的2% 政府支出可能已将约7万亿元人民币从政府账户转移至家庭和企业[10] M1和M2增长近期加速 非银行金融机构存款自年初以来增加5万亿元 仅7月就增加2万亿元 历史表明此类激增通常由股市强劲流入驱动[9] * 外部环境变得更加有利 与美国的关税战风险自5月以来已降温 高层官员多次会晤 并将关税延期90天[12] 尽管对美出口下降 但2025年前7个月中国整体出口仍录得6%的同比增长 得益于对欧盟、东盟和非洲的正增长[13] 国际和国内对中国的看法也有所改善 在高收入国家 对中国的看法已改善到与美国（恶化）观点相当的水平[14][16] * 此轮风险偏好情绪比2024年9月的政策驱动行情基础更广泛 结合了国内政策冲击、充裕流动性、外部环境和国内情绪(技术突破和民族自豪感增强) 因此积极势头在短期内持续的可能性更高[17][18] * 若增长持续放缓数月且无稳定迹象 或"反内卷"措施未能削减产能和重振经济 通缩预期可能再次主导市场情绪 另一个风险是股市过快上涨导致估值过高 引发金融稳定担忧和监管行动[19] 其他重要内容 * 政府若看到增长进一步放缓 可能会增加需求支持措施以确保其5%的增长目标 政策选项包括修订预算以容纳更多财政支出和中国人民银行降息(预测10月再降息10个基点)[7] * 7月PPI通胀停止恶化 高频数据显示主要工业品价格自7月中旬开始反弹 并在最近几周继续上涨 PPI通胀反弹对企业盈利和核心CPI通胀都是好消息[6] * 民族自豪感自2025年初以来日益增强 原因包括技术突破、应对外部挑战的能力增强以及中国文化和品牌的日益流行 类似积极情绪在2020年下半年至2021年上半年也曾推动股市表现优于大盘[18]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'> August 22, 2025 10:50 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global August 22: Jackson Hole Rally Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole viewed as dovish; global rates and equities rally as USD weakens; CAD strengthens on constructive trade developments with US; DXY at 97.716 (- 0.9%); US 10y at 4.255% (-7.4bp).</doc> <doc id='2'>Major Moves & Catalysts Market participants view Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole as dovish, sparking a global risk-on rally.</doc> <doc id='3'>| M August 22, 2025 10:50 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary Global | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Bradley Tian | Update | | --- | --- | --- | | | Strategist Bradley.Tian@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0826 | | August 22: Jackson Hole Rally | Martin W Tobias, CFA | | | | Strategist | | | | Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-6076 | | Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole viewed as dovish; global | Molly Nickolin | | | rates and equities rally as USD weakens; CAD strengthens on | Strategist | | | | Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-3592 | | constructive trade developments with US; DXY at 97.716 (- | Heather Berger | | | | Economist | | | 0.9%); US 10y at 4.255% (-7.4bp). | Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-2296 | | Major Moves & Catalysts | Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ | | | | Hiromu Uezato | | | Market participants view Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole as dovish, | Strategist | | | | Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com | +81 3 6836-8431 | | sparking a global risk-on rally. | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | • Chair Powell states, "With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline | Gek Teng Khoo | | | outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our | Strategist | | | | Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-0303 | | policy stance." Powell notes the July payrolls data raises downside risks for | Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ | | | the labor market and reduces upside risks of inflation. If the labor market | Nimish M Prabhune | | Strategist Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862</doc> <doc id='4'>Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='极速赛车开奖直播历史记录5'>For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.</doc> <doc id='6'>• Chair Powell states, "With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." Powell notes the July payrolls data raises downside risks for the labor market and reduces upside极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 risks of inflation. If the labor market risks materialize, "they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment." In our economists' view, chances of a September cut have increased. For more, see US Rates Strategy: The Bull Steepener 'Stampede' and Federal Reserve Monitor: A Dovish Jackson Hole. • US rates bull-steepen sharply (2y: -10bp; 30y: -4bp) as markets price a 90% chance of a September Fed cut. During Powell's speech, the long end pares some of its initial rally as President Trump states that he will fire Fed Governor Cook if she does not resign, renewing concerns around Fed leadership. In addition, the Congressional Budget Office revises its tariff revenue estimates upwards, suggesting that the new administration's tariffs "will reduce total deficits by $4.0 trillion" over 10 years if maintained at current levels, potentially easing some fiscal concerns. • US equities rally on strong risk sentiment and Fed cut optimism. The Russell 2000 small-cap index outperforms (+3.9%) the S&P 500 (+1.5%). Consumer Discretionary reverses Thursday's weakness (S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary: +3.2%) as other cyclical sectors also outperform (Materials: +1.7%; Industrials: +1.6%), while defensive sectors lag (Consumer Staples: - 0.4%; Healthcare: +0.8%; Utilities: +0.5%). • Euro area rates rally on the back of the US in the absence of domestic catalysts. UK gilts, German Bunds, and most EGBs see yields fall 2-5bp across the curve, despite ECB policymakers expressing reluctance towards further rate cuts. EUR/USD rises 1.0% in line with broader dollar weakness, and the Euro Stoxx 50 gains 0.5%. • USD weakens (DXY: -0.9%) as risk-sensitive currencies outperform (AUD/ USD: +1.1%; USD/SEK: -1.4%). USD/NOK weakens 1.3% as Brent oil trades sideways (+0.1%), with progress towards a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire still limited. President Trump reiterates that he will consider further action in two weeks, stating that the US could impose tariffs, sanctions, or "do nothing." • CAD strengthens as Canada removes retaliatory tariffs in pursuit of a</doc> <doc id='7'>M potential US-Canada trade agreement. In the New York morning, USD/CAD declines in line with broader USD weakness after Chair Powell's comments. CAD extends its rally on Canada's trade announcement, with Prime Minister Carney and President Trump both indicating the move will help advance trade talks. Canadian rates rally ~4bp across the curve in sympathy with极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 US rates, supported by weak Canadian retail sales with advance estimates for July pointing to a 0.8% decline, despite the June retail sales print matching consensus expectations (1.5% m/m; C: 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录1.5%). Our economists emphasize that the July figure will be revised.</doc> <doc id='8'>In the Asia session prior to the Jackson Hole meeting, Asian rates and currencies broadly sold off.</doc> <doc id='9'>Exhibit 1: G4 Rates Closes (5pm NY) | | | US | | | Germany | | | UK | | | Japan | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tenor | 22-Aug 1d Δ (bp) | | 2wk | | 22-Aug 1d Δ (bp) | 2极速赛车开奖直播历史记录wk | | 22-Aug 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | | 22-Aug 1极速赛车开奖直播历史记录d Δ (bp) | 2wk | | 2y | 3.696 | (9.5) | | 1.945 | (2.4) | | 3.937 | (2.7极速赛车开奖直播历史记录) | | 0.864 | 1.1 | | | 3y | 3.644 | (10.1) | | 2.054 | (3.1) | | 3.948 | (2.2) | | 0.944 | 1.2 | | | 5y | 3.759 | (9.6) | | 2.275 | (3.8) | | 4.099 | (2.3) | | 1.158 | 1.0 | | | 7y | 3.974 | (9.1) | | 2.436 | (3.7) | | 4.255 | (3.4) | | 1.375 | 1.0 | | | 10y | 4.254 | (7.4) | | 2.720 | (3.6) | 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 | 4.691 | (3.7) | | 1.617 | 1.3 | | | 20y | 4.840 | (5.7) | | 3.194 | (2.3) | | 5.409 | (3.0) | | 2.664 | 2.4 | | | 30y | 4.876 | (4.2) | | 3.307 | (1.9) | | 5.547 | (3.0) | | 3.210 | 2.7 | | Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg</doc> <doc id='10'>Update</doc> <doc id='11'>• Japanese rates bear-steepened on an upside surprise in CPI and potential fiscal concerns. In the Tokyo morning, short-end JGBs briefly sold off on slightly stronger-than-expected core CPI (3.1% y/y; C: 3.0%), but quickly retrace much of their initial weakness. Meanwhile, super-long JGBs trade cheaper, mainly driven by a sell-off in off-the-run low-coupon bonds. Media reports of the Finance Ministry setting a higher FY26 provisional rate for interest on government bonds potentially fuelled further fiscal concerns. USD/JPY gained in Tokyo session before falling sharply (-1.0%) in the New York session as Treasury yields fell. • AxJ currencies generally underperformed. IDR, TWD, and INR weakened 0.2-0.4% against USD. USD/IDR gained 0.4% as BI Governor Warjiyo stated that BI projects USD/IDR to range from 16,000 to 16,500 in 2026, slightly higher than the previously discussed 15,900-16400 range. In China, rates bear-steepened (10y CGB: +1bp; 5y CNY NDIRS yield: +2bp) as USD/CNH remained stable. The rates sell-off was aided by weaker demand at 10y and 30y CGB auctions, as well as strong onshore risk sentiment reflected in local equity gains (CSI 300: +2.1%). • KRW outperformed the broader region, gaining 0.6% against USD ahead of Chair Powell's speech before closing the New York session 1.1% stronger. Korean rates sold off modestly (5y KRW NDIRS极速赛车开奖直播历史记录: +2bp) and local equities rallied (KOSPI: +0.9%) as South Korean President Lee signaled intent to boost AI research spending in 2026, with market participants focused on Monday's summit between President Lee and President Trump.</doc> <doc id='12'>| Exhibit 2: | | | Inflation Closes (5pm NY) | M | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | US TIPS | | | | | | 10y Real Yields, BEI | | | | | Tenor | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | 10y | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | 10y | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | | 5极速赛车开奖直播历史记录y | 1.224 | (14.0) | | DBRi | 0.766 | (4.0极速赛车开奖直播历史记录) | | BTPi | 1.904 | (5.6) | | | BEI | 2.513 | 4.3 | | BEI | 1.726 | 0.3 | | BEI | 1.679 | 0.0 | | | 10y | 1.833 | (10.0) | | UKTi | 1.663 | (3.8) | | | | | | | BEI | 2.418 | 2.6 | | BEI | 3.032 | 0.4 | | | | | | | 30y | 2.592 | (5.1) | | JGBi | 0.046 | (1.1) | | | | | | 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录| BEI | 2.288 | 1.0 | | BEI | 1.555 | 2.2 | 极速赛车开奖直播极速赛车开奖直播历史记录历史记录 | | | | | Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg</doc> <doc id='13'>Exhibit 3: Macro Closes (5pm NY) | | Majors | | | | EM | | | Equities / Commodities | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (%) | 2wk Spot | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (%) | 2wk | Index | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (%) | 2wk | | DXY | 98.62 | 0.4 | CNH | 7.18 | 0.0 | | S&P | 6370.17 | (0.4) | | | EUR | 1.161 | (0.4) | INR | 87.26 | 0.2 | | Stoxx | 5462.16 | (0.2极速赛车开奖直播历史记录) | | | GBP | 1.341 | (0.3) | THB | 32.62 | 0.2 | | FTSE | 9309.20 | 0.2 | | | JPY | 148.37 | 0.7 | KRW | 1399.15 | 0.1 | | Nikkei | 42610.17 (0.6) | | | | CHF | 0.809 | 0.6 | ZAR | 17.72 | 0.3 | | VIX | 16.60 | 5.8 | | | AUD | 0.642 | (0.2) | MXN | 18.76 | (0.1) | | Gold (S) | 3338.71 | (极速赛车开奖直播历史记录0.3)极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 | | | CAD | 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录1.391 | 0.3 | BRL | 5.48 | (0.1) | | WTI (Fut) | 63.52 | 1.3 | | Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg</极速赛车开奖直播历史记录doc> <doc id='14'>The Day Ahead Developed Markets</doc> <doc id='15'>Emerging Markets</doc> <doc id='16'>Exhibit 4: G4 Central Bank Implied Pricing | | | | | | | Central Bank OIS | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Fed | | Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ ECB | | | Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOE | | | Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOJ | | | Impl