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Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM) FY Conference Transcript
2025-08-26 21:57
[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师,专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场,发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录,请阅读全文,一步一步思考,总结全文列出关键要点,不要错过任何信息,包括: * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容,请跳过这一部分,进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字,不能包含多个,如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写,不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'>Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM) FY Conference August 26, 2025 08:55 AM ET Speaker0 Good morning. My name is William Schellmeyer, and I'm an account manager here at Three Part Advisors. I wanna thank you all for joining us for our sixteenth annual Midwest Ideas Conference. To start things off today, we have Ranir Advanced Materials, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol r y a m. Representing the company today is their president and CEO, Delisle Bloomquist.</doc> <doc id='2'>Speaker1 Alright. Well, good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us this morning. It's great to see that we got a number of folks that wanna hear a little bit about Brian and about what we're trying to do. Just as kind of a start, much of the material that I'm going to go over today was actually part of our second quarter analyst call about, ten days ago, where we took the opportunity to remind our investors about our long term strategy, about what we were trying to do given the uncertain times.</doc> <doc id='3'>We want to make sure that people understood that our strategy still was intact, and we were still progressing and pursuing the strategy as we had outlined. So there's a great strategic document. Shows what we're trying to do with the project or with the company. I'm gonna go over just a lot of the highlights on the slides. If you wanna get into more of the detail and understand a little bit more about some of the specific projects that we're pursuing, I would invite you to go to our website and listen to the analyst call, and there should be there would be much more detail about, what we're trying to do.</doc> <doc id='4'>So with that, get past all that. One of the mistakes that a lot of people make about Ryan is they think that we're a pulp and paper company. We've been around for about a hundred years, and people confuse us that we're in the the wood business and that we're from the wood, we we generate pulp and paper. And really, that is not the case at all. What we do is we produce natural cellulosic fibers that are used in a myriad of different applications, including some cellular specialty products, particularly around the ethers, acetate, and a number of other other cellular specialty or CS applications.</doc> <doc id='5'>We also make a number of niche commodity or high purity commodity products, principally focused on fluff applications, which go into absorptive products, and we'll talk about that a little bit later. We also are merging into our biomaterials, which we think is offers significant growth potential with very attractive returns to our shareholders. Then we got a couple of core noncore businesses, our paperboard business and our high yield pulp business, which are produced out of our Temiscaming Quebec operations. Each of those have unique heuristics that give them some comparatives advantage. Paperboard, we're the only three ply paperboard producer in 极North America.</doc> <doc id='6'>And we have a high yield pulp product that we ship around the world. It was primarily based off of a maple fiber, which gives it unique surface area to weight ratios that are particularly attractive for for those who ship their product long distances.极 We operate four facilities, two of them in The United States, one in Canada, the Temiscaming operation, and then one in France. And our strategy is really focused around, adding value through our core business, which is this high purity specialty business, by reducing its cost structure and leveraging what we think are very advantageous market dynamics, which I'll cover, but also growing the business through biomaterials, which, again, leverages off of, again, very unique comparative points that we have, and we believe it will add significant shareholder value. So our products or at least the products that you would be familiar with, they are used by most everyone, every day, and everywhere.</doc> <doc id='7'>Like I said, we've极 in the business for a hundred years, so our products have got around the world in in in most most countries. If you look at the left, those are our cellular specialty products. The acetates, the ethers, you know, what we call our other CS products. And you can look at the different end uses that it goes into, whether it's food, pharma, natural plastics, tire cord casings, like sausage casings, nitrous cellulose, which goes into furniture lacquers, but also used for munitions. All of those requires exact specifications for our customers.</doc> <doc id='8'>On the right, the top two, fluff. Again, a core one of our core products goes into absorptive products around personal hygiene, adult incontinence, baby diapers, feminine products. Viscose, and lyocell goes into textiles. Think of rayon Rayon, Ranir. We invented invented that product back in the nineteen thirties with DuPont.</doc> <doc id='9'>So we're in the textile business. And then you got the paperboard and high yield pulp businesses, which are being driven by strong megatrends away from oil based packaging, plastic packaging, more to sustainable packaging. It's and so we see good good growth characteristics in that business. And then finally, biomaterials, that's where we wanna grow the business, and we feel that we've got a a strong competitive advantage in. 2025, a very challenging year for us given all the uncertainty and displacement caused by, I'll call it the tariff wars that we've seen since January 20.</doc> <doc id='10'>We export 70% of our production. So it's no surprise or shouldn't be a surprise that we would be impacted in some way due to that due to those tariffs. The EBITDA wins that we faced, we estimate around $5,960,000,000 dollars EBITDA for this year. We believe that those issues are nonrecurring and are largely behind us. So as we enter into 2026, we believe that our normalized EBITDA going into 2026 be around $200,000,000 when you take account some of these issues.</doc> <doc id='11'>Just to cover off a couple of them. Tariffs, obviously, a big a big talking point. Total about $21,000,000 impact. Seven of it would be I would call nonrecurring issues be that are behind. It's just due to people and our customers not completely understanding what the impact was gonna be to them.</极 <doc id='12'>But we didn't lose share. We didn't lose price once, they got got their footing. We started seeing the orders starting to normalize. 14,000,000 is tied to our customers, sales to our US based customers where their products were impacted by the tariffs as well. And we believe in time, given the strong demand supply dynamics of the business, that we will recoup much that $14,000,000.</doc> <doc id='13'>But for our outlook and our projections, we've excluded that from from from those those outlook from those projections. Weaker US dollars impacted us, roughly $8,000,000. We're particularly exposed to the Canadian dollar given our assets up in Canada, but also to the EU given our French assets. We're seeing some of that come back to us, until Friday when they when the Fed announced their their inclination for price or for a rate decrease. But, anyway, we believe that'll that'll come back.</doc> <doc id='14'>We had some operational challenges in the first half of the year. Just giving a couple examples. Our facility in Tardis, we had three strikes, during the year, first half, lost about twenty days of production. As a result of that, that obviously had a significant impact. Georgia, our largest facility, is located, had snow, in January.</doc> <doc id='15'>Severe weather impact the operations. We're not prepared for the kind of snow that we saw in January that had some impact to production, primarily about employees getting to the plant, really was our bigger issue. And on top of that, we have seen softness paperboard in our high yield pulp business. New supplies come online. Some of the disruption we're seeing in China called the involution disruption, we're we're not immune to that.</doc> <doc id='16'>We're seeing that in in high yield pulp as well. Important point to make, though, is we believe that 2025 is our trough year and Q2 was our trough quarter. And we believe that things as things normalize as we enter 2026, we'll be back onto the growth growth track that we were on. So if I look forward and look at the next two years, we have very definitive plans to grow our EBITDA through a number of different actions. So we'll just quickly lay out the plan.</doc> <doc id='17'>We're gonna divest of our noncore business, paperboard and high yield pulp business. We plan to remarket that, in 2026, proceeds of which will be used to pay down pay down debt. The cellular specialties business, as I mentioned, is a highly attractive market with very strong supply demand fundamentals that'll that allow us and get and gives us pricing power in that business. We have a detailed plan to expand our profit margins by lowering cost production on a sustained basis, and I'll talk about that in some depth a little later. We, Ryan, given that we're the largest player in this business and the only player with multiple facilities, we believe controls most of the excess capacity in the business.</doc> <doc id='18'>And so as the business grows or as the demand grows, we believe that, that will help us offset some of our commodity exposure and replace that with the new demand in cellulose specialties at a much higher profit profit margin. Biomaterials is an exceptional growth opportunity for us to recycle capital into high return projects that we we believe will commit create tremendous shareholder value. And we believe if we got a balance sheet that'll allow us to fund that growth without any shareholder dilution. And we believe because极 all these opportunities and because of the strong position that we hold that we believe our current share price does not fully reflect the intrinsic value of our current assets as well as the earning potential from from our growth strategy.</doc> <doc id='19'>Speaker0 And Speaker1 I believe I'll convince you of that as we go through the presentation. So talk quickly about the industry dynamics within our core business as well as what we believe is our sustainable comparative advantage. As I mentioned, Ryan is the leading producer of the cellular specialties. Very highly specialized products. And our products are known for its purity and its product functionality.</doc> <doc id='20'>Our customers have been using our products, which are very bespoke to their customized needs for not just decades, but in the case of a couple of customers, almost a hundred years, which test is a testament to the stickiness of our customers to the products that we produce, to the and their requirement for the purity of the products that we provide. So very high switching costs that our customers have and as a result, provides for the lack of lack of alternatives for our products. You look at industry. The industry has gone through significant consolidation and primarily rationalization over the last, let's say, five years, including the suspension of our operate our HPC operations up in Canada last year. So where that puts the industry today is that the three largest players, ourselves, Bracel, and Beauregard, control about 80% of the market share.</doc> <doc id='21'>And the industry capacity utilization now sits near 90%, and we don't expect that there'll be any greenfield expansions or brownfield. We believe that the the margins have to get get higher to justify either one of those, significantly higher. And any capacity creep from debottlenecking, we believe, will be easily absorbed by market growth. As a result, analysts who cover our space are projecting a four to 6% price increase on a sustained basis, which if happens, will outpace our all in cost inflation at Ryan. I mentioned the the tariffs and the uncertainty that's caused and the disruption, but one of the silver linings to that is that it's underscored this market tightness and the lack of alternatives for for our company for our products.</doc> <doc id='22'>A good example of this is back in April and May. China raised their tariffs from whatever it was to a 125% in retaliation for the tariffs that were that were launched, by the US administration. That would have been a big hit to us because we ship a lot of our product to China. But what happened was because of the lack of substitute, the lack of quality product to replace us, China published a list of products that would be exempt from those tariffs, and our product was on that list. So just again, just reemphasizing that there is, the stickiness of our products, the uniqueness of our products, and the general market tightness within the industry.</doc> <doc id='23'>The demand for our products, about half of it is stable, half of it's cyclical. And I would say that in the cyclical sectors like European construction and industrials have been severely depressed for for a number of years now and believe that that those opportunities actually those are actually opportunities that will provide upside to our our our business model and our projections going forward. Talked about cost reduction opportunities. We're obviously focused on making ourselves as competitive long term as possible. We're focused on three areas.</doc> <doc id='24'>Labor productivity, so we're investing in automation at our facilities efficiencies, think of using less energy per ton of production or less of material input like our chemicals or our wood per ton of product And then improving reliability, be much more predictive about maintenance needs within the plant. We have a very robust pipeline, multi years of opportunities that will provide that provide significant return on investment and极 our cost structures materially. Just for '26 alone, with for an investment of $24,000,000 that we're making this year, that will drive about a $30,000,000 improvement for 2026. And we believe that we have a number of years of opportunities of similar returns. As I stated earlier, we at Ryan believe that we own most of the excess capacity.</doc> <doc id='25'>That gives us the pricing power. And that also provides us a unique puts us in a unique position to capture market share as demand grows. If you look at the analysts that cover our business in the industry, they expect that demand will grow about 80,000 tons over the next couple of years. And from that, just capturing our market share, our current market share of极, we believe that we would grow our EBITDA by about $30,000,000 as a result. But we believe that's very conservative again because we believe we own most of the excess capacity.</doc> <doc id='26'>Some of the upside that's not in that projection would include things like going back to what's what's gone on in Europe and industrials and in construction for the past couple years. We believe that business is in its is is in its trough. It's we're expecting it to to grow out of that trough. If it happens to grow faster, we have the capacity</doc> <doc id='27'>available to capture that with our France facility. If we were to fill up that excess capacity, we believe that we would generate another 15,000,000 tons in value as we replace commodity business with the specialty business.</doc> <doc id='28'>And then finally, as I mentioned, we are one of the leading producers of what's called the nitrocellulose for munitions and explosives and the rising global defense spending that that's happening as people as countries build their stockpiles would also provide additional upside. Biomaterials and the high growth potential that we have there, just to take a step back. When we bring wood in from into the plants, we're we're harvesting wood off a working forest. Don't think old growth, they think of farms, tree farms. We're harvesting wood off these tree farms, bringing them into the plant.</doc> <doc id='29'>Roughly 50% of the of that tree is water, and that leaves about 50% to dry solids. And of that 50% of dry solids, we currently, through our cellulose plants, will extract 40 of it to make our cellulose fiber products. The other 60%, currently, we we burn for its BTU value. So the opportunity for us is to monetize that other 60% in biomaterials. And we can do that through a number of different products.</doc> <doc id='30'>For example, biofuels like bioethanol, CTO, prebiotics, turpent极, lignosulfates, and so forth. We believe that we're uniquely positioned in that we can leverage our existing facilities to create, I would say, exceptional and tremendous shareholder value over and above what our competitors can极. And that's because you're essentially leveraging off of a asset base where you don't where you can take advantage of its current infrastructure. So the capital