ab 14 November 2025 Global Research Our latest 2026-27 China macro outlook In our baseline, we expect China's GDP growth to slow modestly to 4.5% in 2026. We expect exports to decelerate in 2026, leading to a much narrower growth contribution from net exports. Overall domestic activities are likely to stay largely resilient, with the property downturn likely to continue albeit with smaller contractions; consumption to maintain a modest, but softer pace; and infrastructure and manufacturing investment to rec ...

中美零售市场比较 - 2019年中国零售额一度非常接近美国 个别月份甚至高于美国 当时全球媒体热议中国即将超越美国成为全球最大零售市场 [6] - 2020年后中美零售差距重新扩大 到2024年超过20% [6] 中美零售差距扩大的原因 - 两国疫情应对政策不同 [6] - 中美房地产市场走势差异 [6] - 人民币汇率贬值 [6] 中国零售市场追赶美国的潜在推动因素 - 政策重心转向消费 稳楼市政策不断加码 [6] - 后续促收入和消费政策启动 [5][6] - 稳楼市政策进一步加力 [5][6] - 保持人民币汇率稳定甚至小幅升值 [5][6]