通胀数据表现 - 9月整体消费者价格指数环比增长0.3%，核心CPI环比增长0.2%，均比预期低0.1个百分点 [1] - 整体和核心CPI的同比增幅均为3% [1] - 通胀数据显示出减速迹象，而非重新加速 [2][3] 市场即时反应 - 数据公布后，道指期货显示开盘将上涨1%，标普500期货上涨0.75%，纳斯达克期货上涨约0.5% [3] - 债券收益率进一步下降，10年期国债收益率已低于4% [12][14] - 市场目前几乎100%定价了美联储将在10月会议降息25个基点，12月再次降息的可能性也很高 [16][53] 美联储政策预期 - 通胀数据优于预期为美联储提供了继续降息的空间，下周降息几乎已成定局 [11][53] - 美联储内部存在分歧，一部分官员更关注关税对通胀的持续影响，另一部分则更关注劳动力市场风险 [18][66] - 美联储可能宣布停止量化紧缩，这被视为一个高概率事件 [65] 行业与公司层面影响 - 企业盈利数据表现强劲，公司信贷和高收益债券表现良好，尽管存在一些孤立的违约案例 [31][35] - 电力价格上涨5.1%，天然气价格上涨8%，肉类价格同比上涨超过14%，牛肉特定部位价格上涨约18% [25][60] - 受关税影响的品类价格出现上涨，包括家用家具、服装和音视频设备等 [44][68] 投资策略观点 - 固定收益投资策略建议利用当前相对慷慨的债券收益率，在收益率曲线上进行布局，并保持投资组合的久期多样化 [29][32] - 在股票市场，过度集中于少数大型科技股的风险被强调，建议投资者考虑向市场其他部分进行多元化配置 [50][51] - 价值型股票和小盘股可能因美联储持续的降息周期而受益，特别是那些有较多债务的公司 [75][76] 数据质量与展望 - 由于政府停摆，未来几个月关键经济数据的质量将下降，统计机构将不得不对缺失数据进行估算，9月CPI可能是近期最后一个可靠的数据点 [8][9][10] - 通胀率稳定在3%左右，明显高于美联储2%的目标，回归2%可能需要数年时间 [10][17] - 劳动力市场呈现复杂态势，一方面工人供应因人口结构和移民政策而减少，另一方面企业因贸易政策不确定性和AI生产率提升而对新增招聘持谨慎态度 [46][47]

欧洲股市开盘预期 - 英国富时指数预计小幅低开 德国DAX指数预计上涨0.2% 法国CAC 40指数预计上涨0.13% 意大利富时MIB指数预计下跌0.1% [1] 法国政治危机影响 - 法国总理塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努辞职使该国陷入新的政治危机 引发市场关注 [1] - 勒科尔努的意外离职发生在其任命新内阁仅一天后 且上任仅27天 [2] - 法国总统马克龙给予勒科尔努额外48小时与反对党进行“最终讨论”以打破僵局 [3] - 法国CAC 40指数周一收盘下跌约1.3% 法国银行业领跌 法国兴业银行、法国巴黎银行和法国农业信贷银行收盘均下跌超过3% [3] 美国市场动态 - 美国股指期货周二晚间小幅走低 此前华尔街因对并购活动加速和美联储降息的预期而创下新高 [4] - 市场创纪录之际 投资者似乎淡化了当前已进入第二周的美国政府停摆的担忧 [4] - 政府停摆延迟了关键经济数据的发布 如原定周五公布的9月就业报告 减少了美联储下次利率决策前可获得的信息 [5] - 长期停摆加上数据空白期 正值劳动力市场和通胀风险仍是关注焦点之时 [5] 亚太市场表现 - 日本日经225指数周二连续第二个交易日创下历史新高 受华尔街科技股涨势提振 [6] 欧洲经济数据发布 - 周二欧洲数据发布包括德国工厂订单、英国房价数据和法国贸易数据 [6]

文章核心观点 - 美联储降息后抵押贷款利率并未如预期下降，反而有所上升，其定价机制与联邦基金利率关联性较弱，主要受长期国债收益率和通胀等因素驱动 [1][2][3] 抵押贷款利率定价机制 - 抵押贷款利率不紧密跟随美联储的短期利率变化，而是与10年期国债（$TNX）等长期债券收益率挂钩 [3] - 银行发放抵押贷款后，通常会将其在二级市场打包成抵押贷款支持证券进行出售，其交易方式与政府或公司债券类似 [4] - 因此抵押贷款利率需与其他长期债券收益率保持竞争力，并倾向于围绕国债利率波动 [4] 影响抵押贷款利率的市场因素 - 当前国债收益率上升的主要驱动因素是通胀，美国消费者价格指数自2025年4月以来持续上升，8月份通胀率达到2.9% [5] - 由于通胀风险，贷款人要求更高的收益率以补偿债券未来价值下跌的风险，同时财政部为填补联邦资金缺口发行创纪录债务导致供应过剩 [6] - 债券供应过剩压低了债券价格，进而推高了收益率 [6]

美联储政策解读 - 前纽约联储主席Bill Dudley将美联储此次利率行动定性为“保险性降息”[1]

通胀数据 - 美国8月消费者价格指数同比上涨29% 高于7月的27% [1] - 8月核心通胀率剔除食品和能源后为31% 与7月持平 [1] - 两项通胀数据均与彭博调查的经济学家共识预测一致 [2] 货币政策预期 - 截至9月10日 市场预计美联储在9月17日会议降息概率为100% 其中90%预期降息25基点 10%预期降息50基点 [3] - 温和的通胀数据为美联储降息以刺激经济需求和招聘提供操作空间 [1][3] 市场反应与经济指标 - 标普500指数和纳斯达克指数于9月10日因生产者价格数据降温而收于历史新高 [4] - 8月就业报告被大幅下修911,000个岗位 显示劳动力市场弱于预期 [2][3] - 纽约联储9月8日调查显示 受访者对失业后再就业概率的预期降至449% 为2013年以来最低 [6] 消费者层面影响 - 尽管通胀快速上升势头减缓 但消费者价格仍显著高于美联储2%的目标 [4] - 汽车收回数量达2009年以来最高 快餐价格高企导致消费者减少外食 关税影响使咖啡价格五年内近翻倍 [5]

[角色] 你是一名拥有10年投资银行从业经验的资深研究分析师，专门负责上市公司、行业研究。你擅长解读公司财报、行业动态、宏观市场，发现潜在的投资机会和风险。 [任务] 你需要仔细研读一份上市公司或者行业研究的电话会议记录，请阅读全文，一步一步思考，总结全文列出关键要点，不要错过任何信息，包括： * 纪要涉及的行业或者公司 * 纪要提到的核心观点和论据 * 其他重要但是可能被忽略的内容 如果没有相关内容，请跳过这一部分，进行其他的部分。 总结时要全面、详细、尽可能覆盖全部的内容、不遗漏重点,并根据上述方面对内容进行分组。 要引用原文数字数据和百分比变化,注意单位换算(billion=十亿,million=百万,thousand=千)。 [注意事项] 1) 使用中文,不要出现句号 2) 采用markdown格式 3) 不使用第一人称,以"公司"、"行业"代替 4) 只输出关于公司和行业的内容 5) 在每一个关键点后用[序号]形式引用原文档id 6) 一个[序号]只应该包含一个数字，不能包含多个，如果多个就用[序号][序号]分开写，不要写成 [序号-序号] 7) 每个关键要点后边的 [序号] 不要超过 3 个 Content: --------- <doc id='1'> August 22, 2025 10:50 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global August 22: Jackson Hole Rally Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole viewed as dovish; global rates and equities rally as USD weakens; CAD strengthens on constructive trade developments with US; DXY at 97.716 (- 0.9%); US 10y at 4.255% (-7.4bp).</doc> <doc id='2'>Major Moves & Catalysts Market participants view Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole as dovish, sparking a global risk-on rally.</doc> <doc id='3'>| M August 22, 2025 10:50 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary Global | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Bradley Tian | Update | | --- | --- | --- | | | Strategist Bradley.Tian@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-0826 | | August 22: Jackson Hole Rally | Martin W Tobias, CFA | | | | Strategist | | | | Martin.Tobias@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-6076 | | Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole viewed as dovish; global | Molly Nickolin | | | rates and equities rally as USD weakens; CAD strengthens on | Strategist | | | | Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-3592 | | constructive trade developments with US; DXY at 97.716 (- | Heather Berger | | | | Economist | | | 0.9%); US 10y at 4.255% (-7.4bp). | Heather.Berger@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-2296 | | Major Moves & Catalysts | Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ | | | | Hiromu Uezato | | | Market participants view Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole as dovish, | Strategist | | | | Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com | +81 3 6836-8431 | | sparking a global risk-on rally. | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ | | | • Chair Powell states, "With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline | Gek Teng Khoo | | | outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our | Strategist | | | | Gek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com | +852 3963-0303 | | policy stance." Powell notes the July payrolls data raises downside risks for | Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ | | | the labor market and reduces upside risks of inflation. If the labor market | Nimish M Prabhune | | Strategist Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862</doc> <doc id='4'>Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research.极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.</doc> <doc id='极速赛车开奖直播历史记录5'>For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.</doc> <doc id='6'>• Chair Powell states, "With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance." Powell notes the July payrolls data raises downside risks for the labor market and reduces upside极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 risks of inflation. If the labor market risks materialize, "they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment." In our economists' view, chances of a September cut have increased. For more, see US Rates Strategy: The Bull Steepener 'Stampede' and Federal Reserve Monitor: A Dovish Jackson Hole. • US rates bull-steepen sharply (2y: -10bp; 30y: -4bp) as markets price a 90% chance of a September Fed cut. During Powell's speech, the long end pares some of its initial rally as President Trump states that he will fire Fed Governor Cook if she does not resign, renewing concerns around Fed leadership. In addition, the Congressional Budget Office revises its tariff revenue estimates upwards, suggesting that the new administration's tariffs "will reduce total deficits by $4.0 trillion" over 10 years if maintained at current levels, potentially easing some fiscal concerns. • US equities rally on strong risk sentiment and Fed cut optimism. The Russell 2000 small-cap index outperforms (+3.9%) the S&P 500 (+1.5%). Consumer Discretionary reverses Thursday's weakness (S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary: +3.2%) as other cyclical sectors also outperform (Materials: +1.7%; Industrials: +1.6%), while defensive sectors lag (Consumer Staples: - 0.4%; Healthcare: +0.8%; Utilities: +0.5%). • Euro area rates rally on the back of the US in the absence of domestic catalysts. UK gilts, German Bunds, and most EGBs see yields fall 2-5bp across the curve, despite ECB policymakers expressing reluctance towards further rate cuts. EUR/USD rises 1.0% in line with broader dollar weakness, and the Euro Stoxx 50 gains 0.5%. • USD weakens (DXY: -0.9%) as risk-sensitive currencies outperform (AUD/ USD: +1.1%; USD/SEK: -1.4%). USD/NOK weakens 1.3% as Brent oil trades sideways (+0.1%), with progress towards a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire still limited. President Trump reiterates that he will consider further action in two weeks, stating that the US could impose tariffs, sanctions, or "do nothing." • CAD strengthens as Canada removes retaliatory tariffs in pursuit of a</doc> <doc id='7'>M potential US-Canada trade agreement. In the New York morning, USD/CAD declines in line with broader USD weakness after Chair Powell's comments. CAD extends its rally on Canada's trade announcement, with Prime Minister Carney and President Trump both indicating the move will help advance trade talks. Canadian rates rally ~4bp across the curve in sympathy with极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 US rates, supported by weak Canadian retail sales with advance estimates for July pointing to a 0.8% decline, despite the June retail sales print matching consensus expectations (1.5% m/m; C: 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录1.5%). Our economists emphasize that the July figure will be revised.</doc> <doc id='8'>In the Asia session prior to the Jackson Hole meeting, Asian rates and currencies broadly sold off.</doc> <doc id='9'>Exhibit 1: G4 Rates Closes (5pm NY) | | | US | | | Germany | | | UK | | | Japan | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tenor | 22-Aug 1d Δ (bp) | | 2wk | | 22-Aug 1d Δ (bp) | 2极速赛车开奖直播历史记录wk | | 22-Aug 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | | 22-Aug 1极速赛车开奖直播历史记录d Δ (bp) | 2wk | | 2y | 3.696 | (9.5) | | 1.945 | (2.4) | | 3.937 | (2.7极速赛车开奖直播历史记录) | | 0.864 | 1.1 | | | 3y | 3.644 | (10.1) | | 2.054 | (3.1) | | 3.948 | (2.2) | | 0.944 | 1.2 | | | 5y | 3.759 | (9.6) | | 2.275 | (3.8) | | 4.099 | (2.3) | | 1.158 | 1.0 | | | 7y | 3.974 | (9.1) | | 2.436 | (3.7) | | 4.255 | (3.4) | | 1.375 | 1.0 | | | 10y | 4.254 | (7.4) | | 2.720 | (3.6) | 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 | 4.691 | (3.7) | | 1.617 | 1.3 | | | 20y | 4.840 | (5.7) | | 3.194 | (2.3) | | 5.409 | (3.0) | | 2.664 | 2.4 | | | 30y | 4.876 | (4.2) | | 3.307 | (1.9) | | 5.547 | (3.0) | | 3.210 | 2.7 | | Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg</doc> <doc id='10'>Update</doc> <doc id='11'>• Japanese rates bear-steepened on an upside surprise in CPI and potential fiscal concerns. In the Tokyo morning, short-end JGBs briefly sold off on slightly stronger-than-expected core CPI (3.1% y/y; C: 3.0%), but quickly retrace much of their initial weakness. Meanwhile, super-long JGBs trade cheaper, mainly driven by a sell-off in off-the-run low-coupon bonds. Media reports of the Finance Ministry setting a higher FY26 provisional rate for interest on government bonds potentially fuelled further fiscal concerns. USD/JPY gained in Tokyo session before falling sharply (-1.0%) in the New York session as Treasury yields fell. • AxJ currencies generally underperformed. IDR, TWD, and INR weakened 0.2-0.4% against USD. USD/IDR gained 0.4% as BI Governor Warjiyo stated that BI projects USD/IDR to range from 16,000 to 16,500 in 2026, slightly higher than the previously discussed 15,900-16400 range. In China, rates bear-steepened (10y CGB: +1bp; 5y CNY NDIRS yield: +2bp) as USD/CNH remained stable. The rates sell-off was aided by weaker demand at 10y and 30y CGB auctions, as well as strong onshore risk sentiment reflected in local equity gains (CSI 300: +2.1%). • KRW outperformed the broader region, gaining 0.6% against USD ahead of Chair Powell's speech before closing the New York session 1.1% stronger. Korean rates sold off modestly (5y KRW NDIRS极速赛车开奖直播历史记录: +2bp) and local equities rallied (KOSPI: +0.9%) as South Korean President Lee signaled intent to boost AI research spending in 2026, with market participants focused on Monday's summit between President Lee and President Trump.</doc> <doc id='12'>| Exhibit 2: | | | Inflation Closes (5pm NY) | M | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | US TIPS | | | | | | 10y Real Yields, BEI | | | | | Tenor | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | 10y | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | 10y | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (bp) | 2wk | | 5极速赛车开奖直播历史记录y | 1.224 | (14.0) | | DBRi | 0.766 | (4.0极速赛车开奖直播历史记录) | | BTPi | 1.904 | (5.6) | | | BEI | 2.513 | 4.3 | | BEI | 1.726 | 0.3 | | BEI | 1.679 | 0.0 | | | 10y | 1.833 | (10.0) | | UKTi | 1.663 | (3.8) | | | | | | | BEI | 2.418 | 2.6 | | BEI | 3.032 | 0.4 | | | | | | | 30y | 2.592 | (5.1) | | JGBi | 0.046 | (1.1) | | | | | | 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录| BEI | 2.288 | 1.0 | | BEI | 1.555 | 2.2 | 极速赛车开奖直播极速赛车开奖直播历史记录历史记录 | | | | | Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg</doc> <doc id='13'>Exhibit 3: Macro Closes (5pm NY) | | Majors | | | | EM | | | Equities / Commodities | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (%) | 2wk Spot | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (%) | 2wk | Index | 22-Aug | 1d Δ (%) | 2wk | | DXY | 98.62 | 0.4 | CNH | 7.18 | 0.0 | | S&P | 6370.17 | (0.4) | | | EUR | 1.161 | (0.4) | INR | 87.26 | 0.2 | | Stoxx | 5462.16 | (0.2极速赛车开奖直播历史记录) | | | GBP | 1.341 | (0.3) | THB | 32.62 | 0.2 | | FTSE | 9309.20 | 0.2 | | | JPY | 148.37 | 0.7 | KRW | 1399.15 | 0.1 | | Nikkei | 42610.17 (0.6) | | | | CHF | 0.809 | 0.6 | ZAR | 17.72 | 0.3 | | VIX | 16.60 | 5.8 | | | AUD | 0.642 | (0.2) | MXN | 18.76 | (0.1) | | Gold (S) | 3338.71 | (极速赛车开奖直播历史记录0.3)极速赛车开奖直播历史记录 | | | CAD | 极速赛车开奖直播历史记录1.391 | 0.3 | BRL | 5.48 | (0.1) | | WTI (Fut) | 63.52 | 1.3 | | Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg</极速赛车开奖直播历史记录doc> <doc id='14'>The Day Ahead Developed Markets</doc> <doc id='15'>Emerging Markets</doc> <doc id='16'>Exhibit 4: G4 Central Bank Implied Pricing | | | | | | | Central Bank OIS | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Fed | | Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ ECB | | | Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOE | | | Implied 1d Δ (bp) Total Δ BOJ | | | Impl

市场表现 - 标普500指数和纳斯达克指数创历史新高 标普500周一上涨0.5%至6204.95点 纳斯达克上涨0.5%至20369.73点 标普500较4月低点上涨近20% 年内累计涨幅达5% [1][6] - 市场上涨主要由于贸易紧张局势缓解 地缘政治风险下降 以及对美联储降息的预期升温 [1][5][6] 消费者情绪 - 密歇根消费者信心指数6月环比上涨16.3%至60.7 为六个月来首次回升 创30多年来最大单月涨幅 [3] - 消费者情绪改善源于中美贸易谈判取得进展 美国总统特朗普暂停加征关税90天的期限即将到期 [4] 美联储政策预期 - 市场预计美联储今年至少降息两次 每次25个基点 首次降息可能在7月 [7] - 通胀压力缓解和就业市场疲软为美联储降息提供了理由 [5] 消费类股票推荐 - Interface公司(TILE) 全球最大模块化地毯制造商 当前财年预期盈利增长8.2% 过去60天盈利预期上调2.6% [8] - 嘉年华邮轮(CCL) 全球最大邮轮运营商 当前财年预期盈利增长38% 过去60天盈利预期上调5.8% [10] - Grand Canyon教育(LOPE) 提供在线高等教育服务 当前财年预期盈利增长8.8% 过去60天盈利预期上调1.3% [11][12] - fuboTV(FUBO) 体育直播流媒体平台 明年预期盈利增长69% 过去60天盈利预期上调25% [13]