Dividend Discount Model

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Value the ANZ share price using its dividend yield
Rask Media· 2025-10-13 10:07
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd (Since Covid lows, the ASX: BEN ) share price has been a mainstay for some ASX investors. Is now the time to load up on BEN shares? Let’s take a look at one way to value bank shares.Bank shares like ANZ Banking Group, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are very popular in Australia because they tend to have a stable dividend history, and often pay franking credits.In this article, we’ll explain the basics of investing in ASX bank ...
WBC share price at $39: here’s how I would value them
Rask Media· 2025-10-08 08:37
price of Westpac Banking Corp (Right now, you could probably use Google or another data provider to see theof ASX: WBC ) is around $39 per share. But what are WBC shares really worth? How to get to an target valuation is one of the more popular questions our senior investment analysts get asked by Australian investors, especially those seeking dividend income. It’s not exclusive to Westpac Banking Corp, of course.Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) are also very ...
2 easy ways to value the CBA share price
Rask Media· 2025-10-05 08:37
公司股价与市场地位 - 澳大利亚联邦银行(ASX: CBA)股价当前交易价格约为170.38澳元[1] - ASX银行股按市值和所有普通股指数衡量约占澳大利亚股市的三分之一[1] - 在金融板块内ASX银行股是最受欢迎的投资类别[2] 市盈率估值分析 - 市盈率(PE)将公司股价(P)与其每股年度收益(E)进行比较[4] - 计算得出公司基于2024财年每股收益5.63澳元的市盈率为30.3倍高于银行业平均20倍的市盈率[4] - 将公司每股收益5.63澳元乘以银行业平均市盈率20倍得出行业调整后的市盈率估值为112.03澳元[5] 股息贴现模型估值分析 - 股息贴现模型(DDM)是用于银行业公司估值的一种更稳健的方法因其股息支付较为稳定[6] - DDM模型采用最近一个完整年度的股息或预测的下一年股息并假设股息在预测期内以稳定速率增长[7] - 使用公式:股价 = 全年股息 / (风险利率 – 股息增长率) 并基于去年股息支付4.65澳元进行计算[8] - 采用6%至11%之间的混合风险利率对增长率假设进行平均计算得出公司股价估值为98.33澳元[9][10] - 使用调整后每股股息4.76澳元计算估值升至100.66澳元[10] - 考虑到股息的完全税收抵免基于预测的总股息6.80澳元计算股价估值为143.80澳元[11] 估值模型应用与局限性 - DDM估值模型是华尔街最早使用的公司估值方法之一至今仍被澳大利亚银行分析师使用[7] - 估值模型应作为分析银行股的起点但深入投资决策前需要进行超过100小时的定性研究[12] - 全面的分析需考察公司的增长策略、失业率等经济指标以及房价和消费者信心等因素[13]
4 best numbers to value ANZ shares
Rask Media· 2025-10-02 11:07
ANZ share price last traded around $33.96. Are ANZ shares a buy today? Over the longer term, shares with a consistent track record of profits, dividends and/or cash flow will often revert to their underlying price target. Let’s take a look at the valuation.Thelast traded around $33.96. Areshares a buy today? Over the longer term, shares with a consistent track record of profits, dividends and/or cash flow will often revert to their underlying price target. Let’s take a look at the valuation.ANZ Bank is a le ...
2 easy ways to value the BOQ share price
Rask Media· 2025-09-30 11:07
Bank of Queensland Limited (The ASX: BOQ ) share price is in focus today (and just about every day, given it’s amongst the most traded ASX shares). The BOQ share price is currently trading around $7.27.ASX bank shares make up around one-third of the Aussie stock market, measured by the market cap and the All Ordinaries Index.Within the financial sector, ASX bank shares are far and away the most popular. We will step through the absolute basics of valuing a bank share like Bank of Queensland Limited. If you’ ...
4 quick ways to assess the ANZ share price
Rask Media· 2025-09-26 11:07
ANZ Banking Group (Trying to make a estimate of the ASX: ANZ ) share price? Here are a few factors you should be looking at.ANZ Bank is a leading bank in Australia and New Zealand, with a presence throughout the oceanic region. ANZ is one of the Big Four Aussie banks and a leader in the NZ banking market, deriving much of its revenue from mortgages, personal loans and credit.ANZ share price HR mattersFor long-term investors looking to invest in great companies and hold them for 5, 10 or 20 years, at Rask we ...
4 best numbers to value BOQ shares
Rask Media· 2025-09-24 16:47
公司基本情况 - 澳大利亚最大的区域性银行之一 拥有近200家银行分行 其中许多分行由"业主经理"运营 这些经理本质上是小企业主 [2] - 大部分贷款由抵押贷款组成 [2] 企业文化评估 - 公司整体职场文化评分为2.6/5分 低于行业平均的3.1分 [4] - 良好的工作场所和员工文化可以提高高质量人员的保留率 进而带来长期财务成功 [3] 盈利能力分析 - 净息差(NIM)为1.56% 低于主要银行股平均的1.78% 显示贷款回报率低于同行 [6] - 去年93%的总收入来自贷款业务 [7] - 股东权益回报率(ROE)为4.7% 低于行业平均的9.35% 意味着每100美元股东权益产生4.70美元年利润 [8] 资本充足性 - 普通股权一级资本(CET1)比率为10.7% 低于行业平均水平 该比率代表银行的资本缓冲以防范财务崩溃 [9] 股息估值分析 - 采用股息贴现模型(DDM)进行估值 去年总股息为0.34美元 [10] - 基于2%-4%的股息增长率和6%-11%的风险率 DDM模型估算的平均估值为7.19美元 [11] - 使用每股0.35美元的调整后股息支付(预期未来股息) 估值升至7.40美元 接近当前7.14美元的股价 [11] - 考虑到完全税收抵免 基于"总"股息支付的公允价值预测为10.57美元 [11]
Can CBA shares beat the ASX 200 (XJO) in 2025?
Rask Media· 2025-09-23 09:37
估值方法 - 使用市盈率(PE)估值法计算CBA股价为29.5倍 显著高于银行业平均19倍水平 [3][5] - 采用行业平均PE倍数调整后得出每股估值109.28美元 [5] - 股息贴现模型(DDM)是更可靠的银行股估值方法 因其股息支付稳定可预测 [6][7] 股息贴现模型分析 - 基础DDM公式为股价=全年股息/(风险率-股息增长率) 需测试多组假设取平均值 [8][9] - 使用去年股息4.65美元并假设固定增长率 风险率在6%-11%区间测试 [8][9] - 标准DDM模型估值结果为98.33美元 使用调整后股息4.76美元则估值升至100.66美元 [10] 税务调整估值 - 考虑完全税收抵免因素 采用总股息6.80美元(现金股息+税收抵免额)进行估值 [11] - 经税收调整后的DDM模型估值达到143.80美元 [11] 敏感性分析 - DDM模型对增长率和风险率高度敏感 不同参数组合下估值区间为52.89-238.00美元 [12] - 在风险率7%条件下 2%-4%增长率对应估值区间95.20-158.67美元 [12] 银行股分析要点 - 需重点关注银行增长策略 包括利息收入与非利息收入(财务咨询、投资管理等费用)构成 [12] - 必须监测失业率、房价和消费者信心等关键经济指标走势 [13] - 管理层评估至关重要 企业文化评分并非完美5/5需审慎考量 [13]
Value the WBC share price using its dividend yield
Rask Media· 2025-09-20 09:37
ANZ Banking Group (Since Covid lows, the ASX: ANZ ) share price has been a mainstay for some ASX investors. Is now the time to load up on ANZ shares? Let’s take a look at one way to value bank shares.Bank shares like Westpac Banking Corp, Bank of Queensland Limited (ASX: BOQ) and National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) are very popular in Australia because they tend to have a stable dividend history, and often pay franking credits.In this article, we’ll explain the basics of investing in ASX bank shares. But ...
Are CBA shares good value? 2 ways to value them
Rask Media· 2025-09-19 09:37
公司估值方法 - 使用市盈率(PER)进行估值 将公司股价与最近完整财年每股收益进行比较 计算得出CBA市盈率为29.5倍 高于银行业平均19倍水平 [5][8] - 采用行业平均调整法 以每股收益5.63澳元乘以行业平均市盈率19倍 得到行业调整后估值108.93澳元 [7][8] - 股息贴现模型(DDM)采用未来股息预测进行估值 使用公式:股价=全年股息/(风险率-股息增长率) 基础假设为股息增长率2%-4% 风险率6%-11% [9][10][11][12] 股息分析 - 最近全年股息为每股4.65澳元 假设持续增长后调整股息为4.76澳元 据此计算估值达100.66澳元 [13] - 考虑完全税收抵免因素 使用总股息支付额6.80澳元(现金股息加税收抵免)进行计算 估值提升至143.80澳元 [14] - 通过不同增长率和风险率组合计算估值范围 从52.89澳元到238.00澳元 显示估值对参数敏感性 [15] 行业特征 - 澳大利亚银行股如CBA、ANZ和Macquarie因可靠股息历史和税收抵免价值而备受投资者青睐 [3] - 银行业相对稳定的股息特征使其适合使用DDM模型 而科技股等增长型股票则不适用此估值方法 [9] - 银行资本来源成本差异显著 海外债务市场通常比客户存款风险更高 受汇率、监管和投资市场波动性影响 [18] 财务分析要点 - 需要重点关注资产负债表上贷款总额增长情况 过快增长可能意味着过度风险 过慢则可能过于保守 [17] - 应详细研究坏账拨备(利润表)、坏账评估规则(会计注释)和资本来源(批发债务市场或客户存款) [18] - 估值模型仅作为分析工具 需结合财务报表风险分析才能形成完整评估框架 [16][17]