Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...

We of course just got those big earnings, but for me the Eli Liy story was a big one. They dropped their major latestage trial results for their new obesity drug, which is called Retatrich, showing that patients lost nearly 30% of their body weight. Now, that far exceeds the performance of any of the current treatments on the market.The data also showed some meaningful relief from knee pain and osteoarthritis patients, underscoring the drug's broad potential impact on patient health. We did see shares of El ...

The dollar remained under pressure after hitting a seven-week low overnight following the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and signal further cuts.The Fed delivered a 25 basis-points rate reduction, as expected, but sounded less cautious about further policy easing than anticipated.Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement seemed to suggest the risks of higher inflation are less dramatic than the risks of a weaker labor market, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister said in a note. ...

涉及的行业或公司 * 行业：宏观经济、货币政策、固定收益、外汇、机构抵押贷款支持证券 * 公司：摩根士丹利（研究发布方）、美联储、房利美、房地美、吉利美 [117][118][119] 核心观点和论据 * **美联储政策决议**：美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75% [6][10]，并决定启动每月400亿美元的国债购买计划以维持充足的准备金水平 [12][77] * **政策立场转向数据依赖**：声明重新加入“程度和时机”的措辞，标志着“风险管理”式降息结束，未来政策调整将更依赖数据 [16][17][25]，政策利率已处于中性利率区间上沿 [11][24] * **未来降息路径**：摩根士丹利预期若劳动力市场持续疲软，将在1月和4月进一步降息 [6][9][30]，若就业数据稳固，则降息将推迟至通胀明显减速时 [6][31] * **对劳动力市场的担忧**：鲍威尔指出劳动力市场持续逐步降温，自6月至9月失业率上升0.3个百分点，4月以来平均每月非农就业人数增加4万（但可能存在6万人的高估） [26][27]，声明不再描述失业率“保持低位” [6][18] * **通胀看法**：鲍威尔对除关税外的通胀压力表示乐观，认为当前过高的通胀主要源于受关税影响的商品领域 [28][29]，12月经济预测摘要小幅下调了2025和2026年的通胀预期 [22] * **经济预测更新**：美联储将2026年和2027年实际GDP增长预测分别上调至2.3%和2.0% [22][35]，鲍威尔表示其中约0.2个百分点的上修源于政府停摆导致的活动从2025年第四季度转移至2026年第一季度 [35] * **风险平衡**：美联储认为经济前景风险已更好地平衡，但仍存在增长下行风险、通胀上行风险和失业率上行风险 [37][38][39] 其他重要但可能被忽略的内容 * **会议分歧**：本次会议出现三张反对票，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席施密德支持维持利率不变，而理事米兰支持降息50个基点 [6][20] * **资产负债表操作定性**：鲍威尔强调为稳定准备金而购买国债与量化宽松不同，旨在改善对短期利率的控制，不会导致金融条件宽松 [14][15] * **具体交易建议**： * **利率策略**：建议做多FFJ6合约（目标96.85/3.25%，止损96.43/3.57%）[75]，维持美国5年期国债多头（目标收益率3.25%，止损3.80%）[75]，维持2年期美国国债SOFR互换利差多头（目标-15bp，止损-20.0bp）[75] * **外汇策略**：继续看跌美元兑澳元和加元，因两国劳动力市场稳固且央行对加息定价容忍 [84][85]，维持美元/加元空头（目标1.3400，止损1.4400）和澳元/美元多头（目标0.6900，止损0.6300）[89] * **机构MBS策略**：认为会议结果对机构MBS利好，因流动性注入、波动性降低和收益率曲线牛市变陡 [96][97]，继续偏好MBS相对于互换和公司债，并增加对低上限CMO浮息债的偏好 [7][106] * **住房市场评论**：鲍威尔指出住房市场面临重大挑战，供应不足、许多房主持有低利率抵押贷款导致流动性低，利率工具难以解决结构性短缺 [101][102] * **研究免责与冲突披露**：摩根士丹利声明其与研究报告涉及的公司存在业务往来，可能产生利益冲突 [4]，并持有房利美超过1%的普通股 [117]

Kevin Hanks, host of Fast Market, joins me of Schwab Network because we're going looking not only at the stocks moving higher, but also we can't wait to hear are there denters and we know Steven Myron's probably said 50 basis points, right. What else are we going to wait and see. Right.>> Three denters. Nicole Austin Goulsby also dissented for zero cuts. So of the voters, Steven Myron voted again, dissented for 50 basis point cut.Jeffrey Schmidt and Austin Goulsby no cut, which means Jerome Pal, John Willia ...

The Federal Reserve made its final decision of 2025, cutting interest rates for the third meeting in a row — and it set the tone for where interest rates will go in the new year. The call will have ripple effects across consumer prices, the job market, and Corporate America through 2026 and beyond. Here's how the decision will affect you.Read our live coverage of the Fed's rate cut.Thirty-year fixed mortgages, two-year auto loans, and credit card rates tend to fluctuate alongside the federal funds rate. An ...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its third interest rate cut of the year as policymakers moved forward with the cut to support the labor market despite elevated inflation. Fed policymakers voted to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The move follows rate cuts of that size in September and October, which were the first of the year.Policymakers have been tracking economic data showing a slowdown in the labor market in recent months as companies ...

美联储利率决议预期 - 市场普遍预期美联储将在周三进行年内第三次降息 降息幅度为25个基点 目标利率区间将降至3.5%至3.75% [1][2] - 根据CME FedWatch工具 交易员定价的降息概率接近90% 而Polymarket和Kalshi的预测概率高达97% [2] - 部分经济学家认为 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔及其他政策制定者将暗示对明年的降息采取谨慎态度 [1] 美联储官员表态与立场 - 纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯上个月表示看到了“近期”降息的空间 增强了市场对降息的乐观情绪 [3] - 旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利表示将投票支持降息 因对通胀上升的广泛担忧已转向恶化的劳动力市场 [3] - 堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德和圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆预计将持异议 支持维持当前利率区间 [4] - 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米拉恩可能连续第三次持异议 支持降息50个基点 [4] - 波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯 芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比和美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔均表达了对通胀上升的担忧 [5] 主要金融机构观点变化 - 摩根大通 摩根士丹利 野村证券和渣打银行均在最近几周改变了他们对美联储决议的预测 从原先预计按兵不动转为现在预期会降息 [4] - 渣打银行指出 政府停摆后发布的经济数据“未能揭示明确信息” [4]

Um, we're bringing bring in a a guest here that I think has been listening to everything. Dana Peterson is the conference board's uh chief economist. Where do you come down on I don't know.Pick pick your poison uh Dana on on those two gentlemen. They agree on some things, but not on everything. >> Well, I think it's a little bit of everything in terms of the outlook for the economy and concerns about Fed independence and interest rates.Um but you know just talking about today I think the Fed will just go ah ...

美联储政策与市场预期 - 首席投资策略师预计美联储将在本次会议后于明年再进行三次降息 这与市场普遍预期基本一致 [4] - 认为美联储本次降息是合理的 因为通胀正在缓慢减速 而其根本驱动因素（除关税外）并不持续 同时劳动力市场数据存在不确定性 [4][5] - 预计美联储将采取“逐次会议”的决策方式 减少提供前瞻性指引 市场可能将此次解读为“鹰派降息” [7][8] 通胀与就业市场分析 - 通胀仍高于目标 但正在减速 除关税外 其他通胀驱动因素被认为是暂时性的 [4] - 劳动力市场并非灾难 但存在“数据迷雾” 且就业创造的中性运行速率已接近零 容错空间变小 [5][9][10] - 就业市场呈现“双速经济” 大型企业与小型企业表现分化 小型企业已显现疲软迹象 [5] 经济与股市展望 - 对明年经济持乐观态度 不认为市场已见顶 预计牛市将持续 但科技股与非科技股可能出现更多波动 [11][12] - 预计第一季度市场可能进入“消化阶段” 出现再平衡或受全球利率等问题影响进行“重置” 之后将进入更健康的新一轮牛市阶段 [12] - 劳动力供应可能仅支持每月约3万个净新增就业 数据的小幅波动可能导致非农就业报告转为负值 从而再次引发经济衰退担忧 [11]