Welcome back. Two members of the Fed descending during this week's rate cut decision. Governor Steven Myron arguing for a half a point cut while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt said rates should have been left unchanged.So now we're getting some breaking news as to why Schmidt descended. CNBC senior economics reporter Steve Leeman has the news for us. Steve, >> hey, good morning David.Yeah, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt explaining his descent this morning, joined in separate remarks by ...

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.Okay, Cooper, happy Friday. Thanks so much for joining us. Well, what a week.What are your takeaways and what are you seeing as a result as far as the reaction in fixed income. >> Yes. Well, thank you for having me on, Sam, and happy Halloween.Um, really, if you look back in the past week, I think the biggest event obvious ...

Chair Powell, are you uncomfortable with how market pricing has assumed a rate cut is a foregone conclusion at your next meeting. >> Well, I as I just mentioned, um a further reduction in the policy rate of December meeting is not a foregone conclusion as I've just said. So, uh I would say that that needs to be taken on board. We had um you know, I would just say this uh 19 participants on the committee.Everyone works very hard at this and takes their obligations to serve the American people very seriously. ...

ToplineThe Federal Reserve on Wednesday voted to lower interest rates again, the second straight month the central bank eased monetary policy after months of pressure and criticism from President Donald Trump, who has called for steeper cuts. Some policymakers have expressed caution about lowering rates further, while President Donald Trump and his recent appointee have pushed for steep cuts.Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.Key FactsThe Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 in fav ...

ToplineAmericans are expressing lowered opinions about the U.S. economy as worries persist about a declining job market and rising prices, according to survey results released Tuesday by the Conference Board think tank, though consumers are now citing the government shutdown as a “key concern.” Recent surveys suggest Americans have grown increasingly concerned about inflation, rising prices and a cooled labor market.Getty ImagesKey FactsThe Conference Board’s confidence index—a measurement of consumers’ vie ...

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem suggested Friday he will support a central bank interest rate cut at the end of the month, while warning it's important for the Fed not to go too far with easing the cost of credit amid still unsettled inflation risks. Responding to a question about lowering rates at the next Fed meeting, the official said “I could support a path with an additional reduction in the policy rate if there are further risks to the labo ...

美联储政策立场 - 新任理事Stephen Miran计划在本月晚些时候的会议上推动降息50个基点[1] - 市场普遍预期政策制定者将在10月29日再次降息25个基点，与上月行动一致[1] - Miran主张更快的降息路径是必要的，因贸易紧张局势和经济不确定性加剧了经济增长风险[1] 政策制定者观点分歧 - Miran认为货币政策过于紧缩，外部冲击会显著增加负面经济后果[2] - 理事Christopher Waller主张在10月会议降息25个基点[6][7] - 部分政策制定者主张更谨慎的方法，因通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标[4] 利率调整预期与影响 - Miran预计今年将有三次25个基点的降息，全年总计降息75个基点[3] - 上月降息25个基点后，目标区间降至4%至4.25%[14] - 降息可帮助应对潜在的雇佣放缓，促进经济增长[3] 经济数据与决策挑战 - 美国8月消费者通胀年率升至2.9%[6] - 政府停摆导致劳工统计局延迟发布通胀和就业报告，影响决策依据[12] - 政策制定者需在数据缺失情况下依靠预测做出决策[13] 个人投票记录与任期 - Miran在上月会议上推动降息50个基点，但以11-1的票数被否决[13] - Miran计划在美联储任期明年初结束后重返白宫首席经济学家职位[13] - Waller被视为2026年5月主席Jerome Powell任期结束后的潜在接任者[6]

Fed's Powell sees its focus shift to labor market, Trump's latest China trade war threat, ASML revenue missed, and more news to start your day. ...

美联储主席提名 - 美联储理事克里斯·沃勒表示不确定自己是否为美联储主席职位的最终候选人，但认为面试过程顺利且以严肃的经济讨论为主 [1][2] 数据缺失下的政策制定 - 在缺乏官方经济数据的情况下，政策制定可依赖大量私营部门数据来拼凑经济状况的全貌 [4][5] - 尽管私营数据不一定具有代表性或覆盖面广，但多个来源均指向劳动力市场疲软的相同故事，这为政策提供了关键依据 [5][6] 劳动力市场状况评估 - 评估认为劳动力市场疲软，ADP数据与劳工统计局数据趋势一致，过去几个月就业增长可能为负值 [7] - 企业普遍表示没有大规模招聘计划，仅维持现有岗位而不进行补缺，这与私营部门数据反映的情况一致 [7][8] - 公开数据和私营数据均未显示劳动力市场紧张的迹象，例如工资上涨或职位空缺增加 [15][16] 通胀与关税影响 - 认为关税影响是一次性的价格水平上涨，不会导致持续性通胀，央行应忽略这类暂时性因素 [12][13] - 关税传导呈现两极分化，企业对高收入消费者转嫁关税成本，但对低收入消费者则完全不转嫁，因其客户对价格敏感 [18] - 数据显示过去6个月商品价格变化与关税规模存在明显相关性，关税传导率约为40% [19] 利率政策前景 - 基于对劳动力市场的担忧，主张应降息，但需保持谨慎，因为GDP增长预测接近4%与负的就业增长之间存在矛盾 [20] - 政策路径取决于劳动力市场是否反弹以匹配GDP增长，或是GDP增长回落，因此需采取渐进式降息以避免重大误判 [21][22] - 市场对年底前连续降息的定价是合适的，以每次25个基点的步伐推进允许根据后续数据灵活调整 [22][23] 私人信贷市场风险 - 评估认为私人信贷市场系统性风险较低，因其交易结构中包含大量股权缓冲，通常有50%或以上的股权，需先侵蚀股权后才会发生违约 [24][25] - 投资者承担风险是资本主义的一部分，央行职责不在于保护个人财富，亏损是风险自担的结果 [26]

Most Federal Reserve officials said it would likely be appropriate to further lower interest rates this year, though they expressed concerns over still-elevated inflation at their latest policy meeting. "Participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased,†read the minutes. Policymakers noted that, if rates were lowered significantly in the current circumstances and inflation stays above target, long-term price ...