Let's continue the conversation right here with Toron Slack. He's chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Um, you have a favorite in that Fed race, by the way.Well, so I don't have a personal favorite, but I think it's clear that the market is trying to chew hard on which of these candidates will have implications for what's happening, especially of course in rates. What the conclusion of course here is that it all becomes about can the new fetcher persuade the other FOMC members about whatever his vie ...

The U.S. economy has been experiencing the peculiar dynamic of rising inflation and slowing job growth over the past year. While I haven't called this stagflation in the past, the phenomenon did create complexityAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than fr ...

Michael Burry, the ‘Big Short’ investor famed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has issued a dire warning about the trajectory of the U.S. stock market. On Wednesday, Burry highlighted a rare shift in household wealth allocation—stocks overtaking real estate—suggesting it serves as a historic harbinger for a downturn that could last for years.The ‘Exhibit 12’ SignalTaking to X, Burry shared a chart titled “Exhibit 12,” sourced from Wells Fargo Securities and Bloomberg. The data tracks U.S. household ...

Diane, how would you describe uh this. Is it abnormal. Is it funky.Are we just in a waiting period of transition. What What do you say is going on here. >> Well, it certainly is an early chill for the holiday season, but I think you know consumers are still spending, which is ironic.The core retail sales, which goes into the GDP calculation for the retail sales data, actually was up 0.9%. So much better than that headline figure suggested. and data for September and August were revised up.So, we came into t ...

They could do even better in a future recession as investors pour into under-appreciated defensive assets. Investors have piled into tech stocks to the point where they constitute a plurality of their portfolios, if not the large majority. When a downturn hits the market, a rotation out of tech is likely. All that excess liquidity may end up making its way to the following 3 ETFs. If you are an investor who is securing profits and is buying up dividend ETFs to weather a possible downturn instead, it's not a ...

Hello and welcome to Market Domination Overtime. Investors on edge ahead of a big week of economic data. Jared Blickery has a look at the closing action on Wall Street.Jared. >> Yeah, thank you. Big week, but uh we're not seeing it in the majors just yet.So, the Dow kind of a lot of nothing today. You can see it's down a whopping 41 points or 9/10 or 9100s, excuse me, of 1%. NASDAQ though, I will say the tech sector saw some selling today.We saw some rotation in other sectors. We'll look at that in a minute ...

文章核心观点 - 2025年底前将发布多项因政府停摆而延迟的关键经济数据 这些数据可能对标准普尔500指数产生重大影响 市场与美联储在过去几个月因数据缺失而缺乏明确指引 [1][2][5] - 尽管股市年内已上涨超过17.5%并有望连续第三年走强 但投资者仍面临高通胀、经济衰退或滞胀等不确定性带来的压力 [3] - 市场反应将取决于数据是否支持美联储进一步降息 疲弱的劳动力市场和温和的通胀数据可能被视为利好 因为这为美联储继续降息提供了空间 [9][10] 关键经济数据发布日程与内容 - **12月16日（周二）**：发布10月和11月的合并非农就业报告 包含平均时薪增长和劳动参与率等重要数据 [7] - **12月16日至17日（周二至周三）**：发布零售销售数据 16日为月度零售销售先行报告 17日为更详细的完整报告 [7] - **12月18日（周四）**：发布11月消费者价格指数和当周初请失业金人数 由于政府停摆 将不发布10月CPI报告 [7] 各项数据的重要性与市场预期 - **非农就业数据**：反映劳动力市场状况 美联储曾因担忧劳动力市场而将利率从5.5%下调至4.75% 尽管通胀高于2%的目标 市场预计10月就业因政府停摆而疲软 11月有所反弹 失业率预计维持在4.4% [5][6] - **零售销售数据**：作为以消费为主导的经济体中需求的关键指标 由于假日购物和企业促销 年底几个月的零售销售通常较强 [8] - **消费者价格指数**：衡量一篮子消费品和服务的价格变化 是市场密切关注的核心通胀指标 目前预测CPI环比增长0.3% 同比增长3% [8] 市场潜在反应逻辑 - 投资者普遍希望美联储继续降息 若数据显示劳动力市场疲软且通胀温和 美联储更有可能降息 此类数据可能受到市场欢迎 [9] - 降息能刺激经济和就业市场 但风险是可能使经济过热并重新推高通胀 [9] - 美联储希望避免滞胀局面 即高通胀与高失业率并存 这会使政策制定陷入两难 [10] - 市场反应难以预测 例如 若就业数据远弱于预期 可能引发投资者对经济衰退的恐慌 [11]

关键利率水平 - 截至2025年12月12日，10年期美国国债收益率为4.19%，2年期为3.52%，30年期为4.85% [1] 收益率曲线倒挂作为衰退领先指标 - 收益率曲线倒挂指长期国债收益率低于短期国债收益率，其中10年期与2年期利差（10-2利差）被广泛视为可靠的衰退领先指标 [2] - 利差转负后至衰退开始的领先时间在18至92周之间不等 [2] - 历史数据显示，1998年曾出现一次未导致衰退的假信号，而2009年衰退前利差多次转负 [3] - 最近一次10-2利差持续为负的时期是从2022年7月5日至2024年8月26日，最后一次为负是在2024年9月5日 [3] - 若以首次利差转负日为起点，至衰退的平均领先时间为48周（约11个月）；若以衰退前最后一次利差为正日为起点，平均领先时间为18.5周（约4.25个月） [4] - 另一种观察视角是10年期与3个月期利差（10-3mo利差），其转负后至衰退的领先时间范围为34至69周 [5] - 10-3mo利差同样在1998年出现假信号，并在2009年衰退前多次转负 [5] - 最近一次10-3mo利差持续为负的时期是从2022年10月25日至2024年12月12日，自2025年2月26日以来在正负区间摆动 [5] - 对于10-3mo利差，以首次转负日为起点，至衰退的平均领先时间为48周（约11个月）；以利差转负后最后一次为正日为起点，平均领先时间为13周（约3个月） [6] 联邦基金利率与抵押贷款利率关系 - 联邦基金利率影响银行借贷成本，其上升通常导致抵押贷款利率上升，反之亦然 [7] - 然而近期出现背离情况，例如美联储于2024年9月开始降息周期时，抵押贷款利率却反向移动 [7] - 近期在美联储维持利率稳定的情况下，抵押贷款利率持续下降，根据房地美最新每周初级抵押贷款市场调查，30年期固定抵押贷款利率为6.22%，为一年多以来的最低水平之一 [7] 相关投资工具 - 与国债相关的ETF包括：Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL)、Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) 以及 Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Decoding markets beyond P/E. As an investor, I either put my money into low cost funds or in single stocks that (I think) are asymmetric bets. My portfolio is roughly 50/50 between the two. I like to write about Macro and Fundamentals, with the (painful) awareness that Momentum and Sentiment are what really matters. That’s why I never try to time the market and I only buy stocks if I am willing to hold them for at least 10 years.When it comes to fundamentals, everybody knows the market is forward looking, b ...

比特币与主要加密货币市场表现 - 比特币价格在美联储利率决议后出现反弹，从低点89,000美元回升至93,000美元，24小时内小幅上涨 [1] - 山寨币普遍未能跟随反弹，卡尔达诺的ADA和阿瓦兰奇的AVAX领跌，跌幅达6%-7%，以太坊下跌3%至3,200美元上方 [1] 传统金融市场与关联资产表现 - 美国股市尾盘反弹，纳斯达克指数从下跌1.5%收窄至仅跌0.25%，标普500指数小幅收涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨1.3% [2] - 贵金属表现突出，白银飙升5%至创纪录的每盎司64美元，黄金上涨超过1%至接近4,300美元，美元指数跌至10月中旬以来最弱水平 [2] 加密货币相关公司动态 - 加密货币交易所Gemini的股价大涨超过30%，原因是其获得在美国提供预测市场的监管批准 [3] 加密货币与股市脱钩现象 - 交易公司Wintermute的策略师指出，市场走势强化了加密货币与股票日益脱钩的趋势，尤其是在宏观催化剂事件期间 [4] - 数据显示，在过去一年的宏观事件日中，仅有18%的交易日比特币表现优于纳斯达克指数，此次利率削减已被市场充分定价，边际宽松不再提供支撑 [4] - 市场关注点正从美联储政策转向美国加密货币监管，这可能是下一个主要驱动因素，同时2026年上半年初现滞胀担忧的早期迹象 [4] 比特币市场情绪与压力分析 - 分析公司Swissblock指出，比特币的下行压力正在减弱，市场出现稳定迹象但尚未完全脱离困境 [5] - 第二次抛售浪潮弱于第一次，抛售压力并未加剧，市场有稳定信号但尚未得到确认 [5]