20 October 2026 | 5:11PM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY 2027 Outlook: Four Key Pivot Points Driving a New Equilibrium Towards 2035 We expect four pivot points for China's housing market along the path to 2035E, as a result of the new sales model (here and here) introduced by the Chinese government on Aug 28, our new findings on the development progress of the inventory pipeline during this downturn, and our refreshed structural demand analysis. These four pivot points present a complex supply and demand ...

20 October 2026 | 5:13PM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY Inventory structure and balance sheet depth differentiate ROE recovery path; ASP key to upside; Buy COLI, CRL, Jinmao, upgrade CMSK to Buy We expect sales model reforms (here and here) to slow ROE recovery across the housing sector. Our analysis of inventory, city exposure, and balance sheet suggests that companies with higher saleable resources, longer duration of land reserves, higher exposure to higher-tier cities, and lower leverage/debt repaym ...

29 September 2026 | 7:03AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 39 Wrap - volume pulled back with weakening leading indicators; BJ/SH unveiled implementation rules for Aug 28 reform Key highlights for the week: Policy update: 1) Beijing and Shanghai issued city-level implementing rules for the Aug 28 reforms on Sep 24/28, respectively, covering: a) Land payments schedule extended with no interests: For residential land put up for sale after Aug 28, at least 50% is payable within 30 days of si ...

M Update Mortgage Subsidy Policy Falls Far Short of Market Expectations Key Takeaways September 29, 2026 11:43 AM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific The Ministry of Finance announced a 100bp subsidy for qualified first-home mortgages, covering homes with <120sqm GFA and a value below Rmb1.5mn. The subsidy will last for up to five years, with the eligible mortgage amount capped at Rmb1mn. The eligibility criteria imply that the policy is primarily targeted at lower-tier cities (and largely excludes Tier 1 cit ...

September 30, 2026 02:56 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Idea New Home Sales Deteriorated in September; 4Q Likely to Remain Subdued PTI data show that the top 100 developers' property sales decline widened to 14% y-y in September, marking the sharpest contraction since April. With uncertainty around the completed- sales policy likely to keep project launches subdued, we expect new home sales to remain weak in 4Q. Sales decline deepened in September: In line with our expectations, attributable propert ...

October 1, 2026 12:03 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Idea Mortgage Subsidy: Narrow Reach, Modest Sales Support We expect only marginal support for home sales, primarily through purchases brought forward from the next few years. Narrow coverage and limited incremental financing incentives constrain the scope for a broader shift from renting to buying. Key Takeaways Narrow eligibility limits direct support to developers: The first-home requirement and price/size caps concentrate potential beneficiarie ...

8 FICC Research Credit Research 30 September 2026 China Property Mortgage interest subsidies: Targeted support, modest effect China announced mortgage interest subsidies for eligible first-home purchases, adding targeted support to housing demand. We expect the direct sales benefit to remain modest, despite the policy signal from greater central government fiscal involvement. We view China's new mortgage interest subsidy1 as targeted support for first-home demand, with most units sold by lower-ASP developer ...

October 4, 2026 08:30 PM GMT China Property | Asia Pacific M Idea Faster Price Declines, Weaker Leading Indicators in September Secondary price declines accelerated in September as new listings rose and visitation remained flat. We expect continued pricing pressure in 4Q, even as slower new-home launches and mortgage-subsidy support sustain secondary sales and further market-share gains. Secondary price declines accelerated despite resilient transaction volumes: CREIS 100-city secondary home prices fell 0.6 ...

Market performance during Week 40: Primary CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 40 Wrap - primary volume inspiring entering the "Silver" October Key highlights for the week: National Day Holiday volume encouraging: according to CREISs, during Oct 1 to Oct 7, 1) average daily online contract signing (网签) for primary homes in 25 monitored key cities recorded +34% yoy to a level similar to that of 2024; amongst them, Beijing, Hangzhou and Ningbo relatively outperformed on a yoy basis; 2) secondary online contract s ...

China Property Golden Week Property Sales: Strong Beat in Key Cities CITI'S TAKE Robust Golden Week property transactions for both primary & secondary — Policy transmission appearing broader and more consistent in the existing-home market. Secondary transactions across 26 tracked cities increased 53% YoY to 27,720 units, with all cities posting growth. Primary sales across 13 cities rose 41% YoY to 2,812 units, although the headline improvement was concentrated in a limited number of cities and underlying p ...