ab 19 September 2025 Global Research First Read Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector Multiple catalysts ahead; potential more new orders coming? Source: Company data, UBS Research This report has been prepared by UBS Securities Asia Limited. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 3. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the ...

ab 2 September 2025 Global Research First Read Chinese Internet Data Centre Sector 2025 A-share Conference: AI demand ready to take off Industry outlook: demand to pick up; sustained project-level IRR Both Sinnet and Athub see strong IDC demand outlook driven by AI. The limited IDC tender releases over the past two quarters was mainly attributable to chip supply uncertainties, which should be solved going forward. Industry IDC rental prices remain stable and project-level unlevered IRR is around HSD. Althou ...

行业与公司 - 行业：中国互联网数据中心（IDC）行业[2] - 涉及公司：GDS（万国数据）、VNET（世纪互联）[3][5][7] --- 核心观点与论据 1. **Q2 2025行业动态** - **新订单疲软**：由于4月美国对NVIDIA H20 GPU的出口限制，二季度未见大型云服务商（如字节跳动、阿里巴巴）的新IDC招标[2] - 市场需求仍以“2+X”为主（“2”指字节跳动和阿里，占AI投资主导）[2] - 现有GPU集群足以支撑当前工作负载，未来资本开支（capex）将更多取决于AI推理需求而非预训练需求[2] 2. **利用率与盈利展望** - **GDS**：预计Q2调整后EBITDA同比增长8%，环比增1-2%；云IDC需求受AI应用推动[3] - **VNET**：预计Q2调整后EBITDA同比增长22%，环比增2.4%；受益于存量GPU部署[3] - **国企云需求**：中国移动GPU利用率从1月的20%提升至Q2的55%，部署方式从政策驱动的本地化转向租赁模式[3] 3. **关键催化剂** - 云服务商capex指引（尤其阿里和字节跳动的AI推理需求）[4] - DeepSeek R2模型发布（市场过度关注2C应用，但2B端token用量占比90%）[4] - 云收入增长：中国云渗透率仅为美国一半，但国企云收入因预算收紧放缓[4] 4. **估值与市场反应** - **C-REITs影响**：GDS的C-REIT首日交易溢价30%，但股价未反应，显示投资者更关注业务增长而非项目回报[5] - 当前估值：GDS（剔除DayOne估值）和VNET分别交易于2026年EV/EBITDA的12-13倍和10-11倍[5] --- 财务数据摘要（Q2 2025E）[7] | 指标 | VNET（YoY/QoQ） | GDS（YoY/QoQ） | |--------------|----------------|----------------| | 收入 | +16.9%/+3.7% | +8.3%/+2.6% | | 调整后EBITDA | +21.8%/+2.4% | +8.3%/+0.9% | | 利用率 | MW批发量+89.3% | 面积利用率+13.5% | --- 风险提示[8][9][10] - **行业风险**：AI需求不及预期、数据中心故障、利率上升、监管趋严[8] - **VNET特定风险**：再融资成本高、一线城市土地/能源获取困难[9] - **GDS特定风险**：中国云/AI增长放缓、电力中断或电价上涨[10] --- 其他重要细节 - **分析师评级**：GDS和VNET均为“买入”评级，目标价分别为33.92美元和8.01美元（截至2025年8月13日）[22] - **数据来源**：公司披露与UBS预估，假设GDS功率密度为2.2kW/平方米[7]