Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL)
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中国经济：国常会后推出定向宽松，增长提振作用或较温和-China_ Targeted easing follows State Council call, growth impulse may be modest
2026-10-21 18:37
29 September 2026 | 10:49PM HKT Economics Research China: Targeted easing follows State Council call, growth impulse may be modest Bottom line: Policymakers announced a combination of targeted fiscal and monetary easing measures on September 29th, following Premier Li's call for stronger counter-cyclical measures to help achieve the full-year growth target. Major measures include a 25bp cut in the PSL rate and an expansion of PSL support to the "Six Networks" projects, higher quotas for various relending pr ...
中国银行业：评估结构性货币与财政政策对银行的影响-China Banks_ Assessing the Impact of Structural Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Banks
2026-10-21 18:37
Assessing the Impact of Structural Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Banks China policymakers announced a combination of targeted fiscal and monetary easing measures on September 29, including a 25bp cut in the PSL (pledged supplementary lending) rate, an expansion of PSL support to the "Six Networks" projects, higher quotas for various relending programs, and the first-ever mortgage interest subsidy for eligible first-home purchases (see GS Macro report). From a banking perspective, we believe this latest ro ...
中国经济：稳增长紧迫性上升，刺激仍以定向为主；新措施支持增长，但传导不畅限制效果-China_ Urgency Rises, Stimulus Remains Targeted_ New measures support growth, weak transmission limits impulse
2026-10-21 18:37
See page 6 for analyst certification and important disclosures. J P M O R G A N 8 Asia Pacific Economic Research 30 September 2026 China: Urgency Rises, Stimulus Remains Targeted New measures support growth, weak transmission limits impulse Emerging Markets Asia, Economic and Policy Research Feng Zhu (852) 2800 1745 feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com Jiayi Li (852) 2800-5229 jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch {[{Y3cIYdParyTuUqtkX9KJ0CorREglMgI-6aqjstoSGlXLziAjNoAKBm9ijcSrzhAyL9dgosh6spUG ...
中国观察：三件值得关注的事-China_ Three things in China
2026-10-21 18:37
Three quick highlights from China: 4 October 2026 | 10:50PM HKT Economics Research China: Three things in China 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 China PMIs NBS Manufacturing PMI NBS Services PMI RatingDog Manufacturing PMI RatingDog Services PMI Index Index Source: Haver Analytics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research n China Q3 GDP tracking 4.2% yoy: We recently introduced a China GDP nowcasting model that tracks quarterly real GDP growth as variou ...
中国另类数据追踪：出口与PPI回升，财政发力加快）--China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 64)_ Exports and PPI up, fiscal accelerated (_ expected)
2026-10-21 18:37
Jiayi Li (852) 2800-5229 jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch J P M O R G A N 8 Asia Pacific Economic Research 05 October 2026 China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 64) Exports and PPI up, fiscal accelerated (< expected) Sept PMIs strengthened as the long-awaited fiscal catch-up took hold and export strength continued. We've updated our alt-data trackers (vs. our last update) with key takeaways below. Emerging Markets Asia, Economic and Policy Research Tingting Ge (852) 28 ...
10月利率展望-利空渐积-静待破局
2026-10-21 18:36
2026 年 10 月债市研报：利空因素累积，赔率收窄下的震荡分化 摘要 债市呈现"类资产荒"结构，10 年期国债收益率降至 1.68%低位，30- 10 年利差压缩至 40BP 左右的年内低点。 10-11 月迎来政府债供给高峰，预计 10 月净供给约 1.52 万亿，结存限 额使用预期或引发阶段性流动性扰动。 基本面呈 K 型分化，内需修复动力不足 vs 出口高景气（8 月同比 +25%），PMI 重回扩张区间但生产强于需求。 货币政策转向结构性工具托底，央行 9 月购债规模翻倍至 1,000 亿，资 金面预期维持均衡偏松，但总量降息概率降低。 机构行为出现分化，公募基金久期处于高位且仓位达 97%，在赔率不足 背景下需警惕集中止盈引发的回调风险。 投资策略建议保持中性稳健，短端以票息为主，长端及超长端因利空因 素累积且下行空间有限，不宜盲目追多。 Q&A 如何总结 2026 年 9 月份债券市场的整体表现、关键特征以及背后的驱动因素？ 2026 年 9 月份，债券市场整体呈现震荡偏强态势，收益率曲线略微收平，其 中超长端债券表现尤为突出。10 年期国债收益率在 1.67%至 1.69%的区间内 震荡，而 ...