U.S. stock futures fell on Thursday after Wednesday’s positive close. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.This followed the doubts raised by the U.S. Supreme Court regarding President Donald Trump's authority to impose sweeping tariffs using a decades-old emergency powers law, on Wednesday.The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.14% and the two-year bond was at 3.61%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 67.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest ...

市场整体状况 - 2025年牛市持续但出现细微裂痕 市场在担忧中攀升 同时美国正经历历史上最长的政府停摆且看不到尽头[1] - 股市在4月经历大幅回调后 似乎已消化前总统特朗普提出的"解放关税"政策 但美国最高法院正在审理该关税案的合法性 博彩市场Polymarket预计其被裁定合法的概率仅为25%[1] 市场广度恶化 - 市场广度恶化至4月以来最差水平 尽管主要指数接近历史高点 但标普500指数中创52周新低的股票比例达到最高[3] - 市场表现极度分化 主要由微软(MSFT)、英伟达(NVDA)、亚马逊(AMZN)、Alphabet(GOOGL)和苹果(AAPL)等大型科技股驱动 而其他个股表现疲弱[3] 市场技术指标 - 不祥的技术信号"Hindenburg Omen"已触发 该信号通过衡量市场广度异常来预测回调 其触发条件包括创52周新高和新低的股票比例均超过2.2% 市场广度为负且处于上升趋势等[7][8] - 历史数据显示 标普500指数触发Hindenburg Omen信号后 市场在两个月后上涨的概率仅为17% 过去30次触发后两个月平均回报为-6.38%[8][9] - 标普500指数已达到从2022年熊市计算的261.8%斐波那契扩展位 这是一个长期关键技术位 市场可能在此水平暂停或反转[10]

being able to participate in in what I think has been a relatively positive environment for the industry. The standout performance of course is is in our case fixed income markets uh which was up 19% yearonear and we were certainly able to participate support clients in in what were I think consistently um engaged market environments through a third quarter which isn't always the case. Um we had strong macro performance and also credit trading uh had strength in the quarter.So, so that has been a real featu ...

Systematic and momentum strategies. Quant funds, CTAs, and risk-parity models chase price trends and amplify moves. Their buying and selling is dictated by signals and volatility targets rather than outlook or valuation. They make the rallies crazier and the sell-offs nastier.Liquidity and central banks. The expansion or contraction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, along with global liquidity shifts, has a direct impact on asset prices. The rally in 2020 and 2021 was less about economic foresight and ...