Vi e w p o i n t | 25 Jun 2026 09:51:06 ET │ 9 pages US Economics Slower consumer spending keeps hikes unlikely CITI'S TAKE A large downward revision to Q1 consumer spending more than offset any hawkish implication from expectedly strong May spending. Underlying growth now appears to have slowed significantly in late 2025 and early 2026 as consumer spending weakened sharply but AI-related investment supported growth. Core PCE inflation at 0.32%MoM is above target, but at the lower end of expectations. Toget ...

Consumer spending rose faster than inflation in May to prop up the U.S. economy and now Americans are finally going to get a break: Oil prices have tumbled amid peace talks with Iran and returned close to lower prewar levels. ...

核心观点 - 密歇根大学消费者信心指数在2024年5月跌至44.8，为该调查有记录以来的历史最低点，低于新冠疫情最严重时期（71.8）、疫情后通胀时期（50）以及大衰退峰值后时期（55.3）[3] - 尽管消费者信心指数低迷，但股票市场正反弹至创纪录高位，且全国范围内的消费支出持续显示出类似的活力[3] 消费者信心与支出数据背离 - 密歇根消费者信心指数被广泛认为不仅是可靠指标，也是美国关键经济指标之一，但当前似乎与其他可比数据和背景数据不一致[4] - 无论对当前经济形态持何种看法，消费者支出水平强劲且正在上升，5月份环比增长0.9%，为连续第四个月增长，尽管物价同比上涨4.2%[5] - 个人储蓄率已降至2.6%，这是自2008年金融危机以来最糟糕的低点[6] 经济结构分化与家庭财务状况 - 不同阶层之间的支出（和收入）差异正变得更加显著[6] - 个人债务水平很高，私人信贷违约率也很高[6] - 美国目前有比以往更多的退休人员正在动用储蓄，这影响了数据[7] - 根据美联储数据，人们实际上比疫情前拥有更多流动资产，约占其可支配收入的84%[7]