文章核心观点 - 专家Peter Schiff警告美国房地产市场正面临危机 认为高抵押贷款利率和高房价的错配将导致大量违约和止赎 引发市场连锁反应 [1][2][3] 房地产市场现状分析 - 历史低利率时期（零利率）催生了大量低息抵押贷款（3%-4%） 推动房价上涨至高位 [2] - 房价高企的主要原因是低利率使购房者能够承受更高的月供 而非绝对房价本身 [2] - 当前抵押贷款利率已大幅上升 但房价并未相应回调至与高利率相匹配的水平 形成价格与成本的严重错配 [2] 潜在危机与市场影响 - 价格与利率的错配不可持续 最终将引发"住房紧急情况" [3] - 危机可能表现为大量违约 许多房主因房屋售价低于未偿还贷款额而选择"邮寄钥匙"放弃房产 [3] - 尽管目前低利率锁定的房主抑制了部分卖压 但未来因工作、搬迁或财务压力导致的被迫出售将迫使房价下跌 [3] - 房价下跌可能引发房地产市场"连锁效应" 加剧市场下行压力 [3]

Still, Schiff remains wary. He argues that many owners are staying put only because they locked in ultra-low mortgage rates, limiting the number of homes for sale.Today’s market is different. Lending standards are tighter than during the subprime era, making widespread negative equity less common. Supply constraints are also a factor: Zillow estimates the U.S. is short roughly 4.7 million homes, a gap that has helped keep prices elevated [4].The scenario sounds familiar. During the 2008 bust, many underwate ...