宏观经济与利率环境 - 美国10年期国债收益率上升至4.622%，美元指数持稳于101.219 [1] - 市场对美联储9月加息的预期概率约为63%，较上周通胀数据公布前约90%的水平有所下降 [1] - 瑞银指出，鹰派信号及更高的政策利率预期仍是压制黄金价格的力量 [1] 债券市场与黄金关联 - 当前债券收益率虽在上升，但并未出现加速上行的剧烈波动，这与之前驱动黄金抛售的走势不同 [2] - 黄金市场并不期待收益率崩溃，而是希望收益率上行压力停止累积 [2] 地缘政治与能源风险 - 胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的封锁威胁，增加了海湾地区以外发生能源供应中断的风险 [2] - 若原油价格因此进一步上涨，可能迅速改变收益率前景 [2] 市场数据与短期驱动 - 在本周五PMI初值报告公布前，美国无重大数据发布，黄金价格易受石油相关新闻和停火协议进展影响 [3] - 7月和8月的通胀报告将向市场揭示，由能源驱动的利率上行压力是否已见顶或仍在累积 [3]

核心观点 - 霍华德·马克斯最新13F文件中的五大股票持仓，是对市场错误定价的研究，这些股票与典型的牛市投资组合截然不同[5] - 其中，Expand Energy被视为当前价格下最清晰的交易机会，AngloGold Ashanti是回调后的波动性交易，Indivior是市场长期误解的复利增长股，而TORM和Garrett Motion已大幅上涨，需谨慎选择入场时机[19] Garrett Motion - 公司是涡轮增压器制造商，其投资逻辑基于内燃机比市场预期更长、更有利可图的尾部需求，而非电动化进程[4] - 第一季度业绩超预期：每股收益为0.49美元，超出预期14.49%；营收为9.85亿美元，超出预期6.59%，同比增长12.2%；净利润跃升53.2%至9500万美元[3] - 管理层提高了2026财年指引：净销售额为36亿至39亿美元，调整后自由现金流为3.55亿至4.75亿美元，并授权了2026年2.5亿美元的股票回购计划[3] - 年初至今股价上涨82.26%，过去一年上涨171.99%，以约18倍过去市盈率交易，分析师目标价为35.67美元[1] Expand Energy - 公司是美国最大的天然气生产商，但年初至今股价表现与基本面背离[7] - 第一季度业绩远超预期：营收为44亿美元，超出预期43.96%，同比增长一倍；净利润飙升565%至11.6亿美元；自由现金流达到17亿美元，增长218%[8] - 公司年初至今偿还了约13亿美元总债务，执行了1.5亿美元股票回购，并与Delfin FLNG锁定了一份为期20年、每年约115万吨的液化天然气供应协议[8] - 尽管业绩强劲，但年初至今股价下跌19.19%，自3月31日以来下跌19.20%[8] - 公司以7倍过去市盈率交易，分析师目标价为125.32美元，有3个强力买入、17个买入和6个持有评级[9] AngloGold Ashanti - 公司是一家黄金生产商，黄金基本面强劲：每盎司实现金价同比增长69%，通过Centamin收购的Sukari矿已完全整合，管理层宣布了创纪录的5.85亿美元中期股息[10] - 股价在过去一年上涨71.21%，但在马克斯持仓披露后的三个月内回调了20.64%[11] - 公司以11倍过去市盈率交易，股息率为5.81%，分析师目标价为114美元，当前股价为76.55美元[12] TORM plc - 公司是一家成品油轮运营商，霍尔木兹海峡关闭事件影响了全球约14%的清洁石油产品流动，其船队直接受益于航线改道[13] - 船队平均期租等价租金同比增长30%至每日34937美元，LR2型船现货租金跳涨73%至每日50811美元，第二季度57%的营运天数已以平均每日71494美元的价格锁定[14] - 管理层将2026财年期租等价收入指引上调至11.5亿至14.5亿美元，EBITDA指引上调至8亿至11亿美元，并派发了相当于净利润58%的0.70美元中期股息[14] - 公司股价年初至今上涨58.04%，过去一年上涨84.95%，以9倍过去市盈率和5倍远期市盈率交易，股息率为9.45%，分析师目标价为34.50美元[15] Indivior - 第一季度业绩远超预期：每股收益为0.96美元，超出预期45.45%；营收为3.17亿美元，超出预期16.19%，同比增长19.2%；净利润跃升89%至8900万美元；调整后EBITDA利润率从去年同期的29%扩大至52%[17] - 主要驱动力来自其产品SUBLOCADE，净营收为2.32亿美元，同比增长32%，美国配药单位增长20%，新患者开始治疗人数创纪录达到31800人[17] - 管理层将2026财年营收指引上调至12.15亿至12.85亿美元，调整后EBITDA指引上调至6.2亿至6.6亿美元，中值同比增长约50%[17] - 市场潜力巨大：美国有780万人滥用阿片类药物，480万人被诊断患有阿片类药物使用障碍，仅200万人接受药物治疗，长效注射剂的渗透率约为8.5%，预计将增长至20%至30%[18] - 公司以13倍远期市盈率交易，分析师目标价为50.83美元，有1个强力买入和5个买入评级，无持有或卖出评级[18] - 自持仓披露以来股价上涨33.17%，过去一年上涨160.19%[18]

Billionaire Investor Howard Marks' Top 5 Holdings: A Buy at These Prices? - 24/7 Wall St. S&P 5007,493.40 +0.58% Dow Jones52,233.40 +0.60% Nasdaq 10029,021.60 +1.38% Russell 20002,967.12 +0.81% FTSE 10010,567.40 +0.99% Nikkei 22566,711.20 +2.47% Live Nasdaq Composite: Markets Pivot From Headlines to Q2 Earnings, Chip Stock Momentum Investing Billionaire Investor Howard Marks' Top 5 Holdings: A Buy at These Prices? By Joel South Published Jul 21, 10:32AM EDT Quick Read EXE crashed 19% YTD despite net income ...

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 21 July 2026 Genesis Minerals $5.6bn consideration for Vault is fair and accretive in FY28E/29E, but dilutive from FY30E; integrate VAU into our base case and retain OW GMD and Vault (ASX: VAU, Not Covered) have agreed to merge via a VAU scheme of arrangement, creating a +700kozpa (JPMe) gold producer with 9.4Moz Reserves and 33.6Moz Resources. We integrate VAU into our GMD base case. Key takeaways: (1) The deal is highly accretive upfront, with FY28E EPS +49% (8 ...

Eagle Mountain Mining has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Japan's Nittetsu Mining to jointly identify and consider potential new mineral projects. The agreement will see the two companies collaborate to review and evaluate opportunities primarily focused on copper, gold, lead, lithium, nickel, silver and zinc, with the possibility to include other commodities. Target locations identified for assessment include Australia and North America, with other jurisdictions to be cons ...

Key Takeaways Newmont Corporation (NEM) is slated to report second-quarter 2026 results after the closing bell on July 23. The mining giant is expected to have benefited from significantly higher realized gold prices in the second quarter compared with the year-ago period. However, the pricing tailwind is likely to have been weaker than in the first quarter. Gold prices retreated from the record highs reached earlier in the year as easing trade tensions, profit-taking after a solid rally and a stronger U.S. ...

The gold market rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as the $4,000 level continues to attract a certain amount of attention and headlines. The $4,000 level makes for good news, but really at this point, it is market memory that I think most traders are counting on here. If the market were to break down below the $3,900 level, it could signify that the support level has been broken. Right now, it looks like we're happy to just bounce along in this area after recently for ...

Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - July 21, 2026) - Lode Gold Resources Inc. (TSXV: LOD) (OTCQB: LODFF) (the "Company" or "Lode Gold") is pleased to announce an update on its fully integrated 2026 exploration and resource definition drilling program at the Fremont Gold Mine property ("Fremont") in Mariposa County, California. Fremont sits on over 3,000 acres of private patented land claims, with extensive brownfield infrastructure. Fremont hosts a structurally controlled orogenic gold system alo ...

Fully funded Phase 1 drill campaign launches the first modern test of the Company's new geological model, targeting high-priority structural gold zones with the flexibility to expand the program based on drilling results and geological observations. VANCOUVER, BC / ACCESS Newswire / July 21, 2026 / Four Nines Gold Inc. (CSE:FNAU)(OTCQB:FNAUF)(FWB:F8NA) ("Four Nines" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that drilling has commenced at the Hayden Hill Gold Project in Lassen County, California. ...

Corporate Name and Trading Symbol Change Reflect Company’s Strategic Transition Following Previously Announced Reverse MergerSOUTHLAKE, Texas, July 21, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Everlert, Inc. (OTC: EVLI) (“Everlert” or the “Company”), announced that FINRA has completed the Company’s previously announced corporate action changing the Company’s legal name to American Gold & Copper Inc. and its trading symbol to AGCI. The corporate action becomes effective at the opening of trading on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. ...