J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research 03 July 2025 US: Continuing claims still signal unemployment risk Jobless claims affirm a labor market in which layoffs remain low but hiring rates likely continue to weaken. Initial jobless claims fell to 233k in the week ending June 21 from 237k in the previous week. Claims rose through early June in what appears to be residual seasonality and have since come down, with claims now slightly lower than a year earlier. Consequently, initial claims in isolation ...

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V i e w p o i n t | 18 Jun 2025 08:33:31 ET │ 13 pages US Economics The Daily Update – Three reasons for Powell to sound dovish CITI'S TAKE Today at 2PM we expect Chair Powell's comments to skew dovish and median dots to continue to indicate two 25bp rate cuts this year. Powell has at least three reasons to be dovish: 1. Three months of softer core inflation 2. Rising continuing jobless claims 3. Softer housing data. Andrew Hollenhorst AC +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronica Clark AC +1-212- ...

29 May 2025 | 12:05PM EDT USA: Q1 GDP Revised Up but Revision Details Softer; Initial Claims Rise BOTTOM LINE: Q1 GDP growth was revised up 0.1pp to -0.2% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). The details of the revision were softer, however, as real domestic final sales growth was revised down 0.3pp, mostly reflecting a 0.6pp downward revision to consumer spending growth. The contribution of inventory accumulation to GDP growth was revised up 0.3pp to 2.6pp. We continue to see the headline Q1 GDP growth readi ...

市场表现 - 盘前期货上涨 道指+300点 标普500+50点 纳斯达克+250点 罗素2000+25点 但较早期高点有所回落[1] - 过去一个月市场强劲上涨 但起点较低[1] 就业市场 - 首次申领失业金人数22.8万 接近预期的23万 较前值24.1万下降1.3万[2] - 持续申领失业金人数达187.9万 前值191.6万为2021年11月以来首次突破190万[3][4] - 就业市场仍健康 需持续申领人数突破200万才会改变判断[4] 经济数据 - Q1生产率-0.8% 低于预期 为2022年Q2以来首次负增长[5] - 单位劳动力成本+5.7% 超预期+5.1% 创2020年Q3以来新高[6] 企业财报 Shopify(SHOP) - Q1每股收益0.25美元 低于预期0.01美元 但同比+0.05美元[7] - 营收23.6亿美元 超预期+1.32%[7] - 股价盘前-7% 年内累计-11%[7] ConocoPhillips(COP) - Q1每股收益2.09美元 超预期0.03美元[8] - 营收171亿美元 超预期+3.37% 同比+18%[8] - 股价+1.6% 年内跌幅收窄至个位数[8] Crocs(CROX) - Q1每股收益3.00美元 超预期19.5%[9] - 营收9.373亿美元 超预期+3% 但略低于去年同期[9] - 股价盘前+4.7% 年内跌幅收窄[9]

市场表现 - 美股期货盘前普遍上涨 道指+300点 标普500+50点 纳斯达克+250点 小盘股罗素2000+25点 但涨幅较上月高位有所回落[1] - 三大指数近一个月强劲反弹 但前期基数较低[1] 就业市场 - 当周初请失业金人数22.8万 略低于预期的23万 较前值24.1万下降1.3万 该指标近一年保持稳定[2] - 持续申领失业金人数两周前报187.9万 但最新数据升至191.6万 为2021年11月以来首次突破190万关口[3] - 就业市场仍属健康 但需警惕持续申领人数若长期突破200万可能改变当前判断[4] 经济数据 - 美国一季度生产率下降0.8% 为2022年二季度以来首次负增长 较预期低10个基点 四季度数据从+1.5%下修[5] - 单位劳动力成本同比上涨5.7% 超预期5.1% 创2020年三季度以来最高水平 与生产率下滑形成不利组合[6] 企业财报 - Shopify一季度每股收益0.25美元 低于预期0.01美元 营收23.6亿美元超预期1.32% 但股价盘前跌7% 年内累计跌幅扩大至11%[7] - 康菲石油每股收益2.09美元超预期0.03美元 营收171亿美元超预期3.37% 同比大增18% 股价盘前涨1.6%[7][8] - Crocs每股收益3美元大幅超预期19.5% 营收9.373亿美元超预期3% 连续五年盈利超预期 股价盘前涨4.7%[9]