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高盛-中国的三件事
高盛· 2025-07-07 23:45
报告行业投资评级 未提及相关内容 报告的核心观点 - 6月中国制造业PMI上升、服务业PMI下降,显示制造业增长较好、服务业增长较弱 [1] - 7月1日中央经济和金融事务委员会会议提出深化“全国统一大市场”建设、实施改革措施,若落实好或解决产能过剩和通缩问题;7月4日消息称中国政府将全国推行育儿补贴计划,虽补贴力度不大但显示财政支出目标领域转变 [3] - 国内外投资者讨论话题有相似也有差异,多伦多、波士顿和纽约客户对中国股市看法渐趋积极,但都在等待宏观或微观层面催化剂 [8] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 经济数据表现 - 6月官方和财新制造业PMI均上升,官方制造业PMI从49.5升至49.7,财新制造业PMI从48.3升至50.4;官方和财新服务业PMI均下降,官方服务业PMI从50.2降至50.1,财新服务业PMI从51.1降至50.6 [1] 政策动态 - 7月1日中央经济和金融事务委员会会议提出深化“全国统一大市场”建设以减少地方保护主义,实施改革措施应对过度竞争和降价问题 [3] - 7月4日消息称中国政府将全国推行育儿补贴计划,每年给每个孩子3600元直至三岁 [3] 投资者情况 - 国内外投资者讨论话题有相似,如美国关税走向、房地产市场和消费疲软、中国产能过剩和降价问题;也有差异,本地投资者关注国内政策实施,部分外国投资者关注台湾地缘政治风险 [8] - 多伦多、波士顿和纽约客户对中国股市看法渐趋积极,但都在等待宏观(如7月政治局会议、中美贸易谈判)或微观(如今年早些时候DeepSeek那样的突破)层面催化剂 [8] 近期高盛中国宏观研究 - 消费和房地产市场相关研究:《A Primer on China's Social Safety Net》(Yang,2025年7月6日)、《How Will It End? Benchmarking China's Property Downturn Against Global Precedents》(Song/Shan,2025年6月25日) [9] - 数据评论、预览和跟踪相关研究:《AEJ Week Ahead: Inflation and GDP around the region, central bank meetings in Korea and Malaysia; China credit; Taiwan exports》(2025年7月4日)等多篇报告 [9]
摩根士丹利:G10 外汇策略_日元关注即将到来的风险事件
摩根· 2025-07-07 23:44
July 4, 2025 02:14 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Japan M Idea JPY: Watching Upcoming Risk Events The strong headline US NFP print coupled with a lower unemployment rate have made it difficult for the market to price in a lower US terminal rate. However, the next risk event - the deadline of the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on July 9 - could potentially become the catalyst for USD/JPY to break through the low-end of the recent range. Maintain short USD/ JPY position. Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley MUFG S ...
摩根大通:美国_持续申领失业金人数仍预示着失业风险
摩根· 2025-07-07 23:44
J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research 03 July 2025 US: Continuing claims still signal unemployment risk Jobless claims affirm a labor market in which layoffs remain low but hiring rates likely continue to weaken. Initial jobless claims fell to 233k in the week ending June 21 from 237k in the previous week. Claims rose through early June in what appears to be residual seasonality and have since come down, with claims now slightly lower than a year earlier. Consequently, initial claims in isolation ...
欧元信用债市场发行量激增
金投网· 2025-07-07 10:44
外汇市场动态 - 欧元兑美元周一亚盘早盘下跌至1 1771 跌幅0 03% 上一交易日收盘为1 1775 [1] - MACD指标显示欧元兑美元趋势性上涨动能未被破坏 但RSI进入超买区间73 28 显示短线多头力量或有修正需求 [2] 欧元区公司债券市场 - 6月欧元计价公司债券发行规模大幅攀升 呈现供需两旺特征 [1] - 驱动因素包括机构投资者对信用债配置需求强劲 企业规避二季度财报静默期监管限制 以及提前应对7月9日美国关税政策风险 [1] - 跨国企业加速发行欧元债券 反映对地缘政治风险的高度警觉 [1] - 欧央行宽松货币政策背景下 投资者对高收益信用债需求旺盛 发行人主动进行负债管理 [1]
Global Commodities_ The Week in Commodities
2025-07-07 08:51
Global Commodities Research 01 July 2025 J P M O R G A N Global Commodities The Week in Commodities This is a summary note that consolidates the latest views of our global commodity strategists published over the week; to read detailed reports, refer to the hyperlinks. It also contains hyperlinks to other related research/podcasts on the global commodities market. Oil Markets Weekly: Major supply disruption risk at 21%, but deterrent lines are now well-defined Global Commodities Webinar: US Enters War with ...
Will Tesla crash to $200 after major ETF setback?
Finbold· 2025-07-07 03:37
公司动态 - Azoria Partners推迟推出特斯拉创新ETF 因担忧CEO马斯克的政治野心[1] - 马斯克确认启动名为"美国党"的新政治运动 引发投资机构谨慎态度[1] - Azoria CEO James Fishback公开批评马斯克 呼吁特斯拉董事会重新评估其CEO角色兼容性[2] - 马斯克政治立场与特朗普总统产生分歧 后者威胁取消联邦补贴和SpaceX合同[1] 市场反应 - 特斯拉股价周五收于31535美元 较周内高点320美元小幅回落[3] - 分析师警告若政治风险持续发酵 股价可能下探250美元甚至200美元关口[7] - 技术分析显示250美元为关键支撑位 过去五年交易量最密集区域[8] - TrendSpider数据证实250美元是重要枢轴点 多空双方博弈焦点[9] 政治影响 - 马斯克退出领导政府效率部(DOGE)的决定动摇投资者信心[2] - 政治公告时机敏感 恰逢特朗普签署马斯克公开反对的减税支出法案[2] - 监管反制风险加剧 包括潜在电动车税收抵免取消威胁[5]
Amazon: Don't Wait Till It Enters Beast Mode
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-06 23:30
JR Research is an opportunistic investor. He was recognized by TipRanks as a Top Analyst. He was also recognized by Seeking Alpha as a "Top Analyst To Follow" for Technology, Software, and Internet, as well as for Growth and GARP. He identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities supported by robust price action to potentially generate alpha well above the S&P 500. He has also demonstrated outperformance with his picks. He focuses on identifying growth investing opportunities that present the most attracti ...
CEF Weekly Review: Little Point To Stable Managed Distribution Plans
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-06 21:32
Welcome to another installment of our CEF Market Weekly Review, where we discuss closed-end fund [CEF] market activity from both the bottom-up – highlighting individual fund news and events – as well as the top-down – providing an overview of the broader market. We also try to provideCheck out Systematic Income and explore our Income Portfolios, engineered with both yield and risk management considerations. Use our powerful Interactive Investor Tools to navigate the BDC, CEF, OEF, preferred and baby bond m ...
Medicus Pharma: High-Risk But Higher Reward For Their Potential Breakthrough Skin Cancer Treatment
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-04 21:49
Medicus Pharma Ltd. (NASDAQ: MDCX ) describes itself as 'a biotech/life sciences company focused on accelerating the clinical development programs of novel and disruptive therapeutic assets'. The company came about in October 2023 as the result of aI have been investing in the stock market since I was 17 years old, and over the 25+ years since I have learned the joy of compounding, the value of dividend reinvesting, and the principle that patient investing through good times and bad brings the greatest rewa ...
3 Risks Investors Should Know Before Buying Sea Limited Stock Today
The Motley Fool· 2025-07-04 20:45
The Southeast Asian e-commerce and fintech platform is again on the upswing, but competition is also increasing.Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) has quietly regained its footing. After a brutal reset in 2022, the Southeast Asian tech platform -- best known for Shopee, Garena, and its fintech arm Monee -- has made a steady comeback.It has returned to profitability, sharpened its cost discipline, and shown renewed momentum across all three business segments. Investors have taken notice. The stock has more than doubled ...