市场表现与前景 - 2026年初至今 主要股指均实现上涨 其中道琼斯指数上涨2.70% 标普500指数上涨1.38% 纳斯达克指数上涨1.18% 小盘股罗素2000指数上涨7.89% 中盘股标普400指数上涨6.07% [1] - 市场已连续三年实现两位数涨幅 2025年标普500指数上涨16.4% 2024年上涨23.3% 2023年上涨24.2% 预计2026年将成为连续第四年上涨 [1][3] - 当前市场表现与1995-1999年的科技繁荣期相似 当时标普500指数在五年内累计上涨220% 许多个股涨幅达百分之几百至几千 [3] 人工智能(AI)行业驱动 - 人工智能是当前科技繁荣的核心驱动力 预计其变革性将堪比个人电脑、互联网和手机 并将影响几乎所有行业 [5][6] - AMD首席执行官苏姿丰表示 AI需求“永不满足” 并预计其公司未来3-5年每年可因此增长35% 她预测AI数据中心市场到2030年可能增长至1万亿美元 [10] - 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋称AI是“我们这个时代最强大的技术力量” 将彻底改变从医疗保健到交通等各个行业 并表示正处于新计算时代的开端 [10] - 对AI的投资规模已超过互联网泡沫时代 前所未有的支出和创新预计将持续多年 [11] 宏观经济环境 - 通胀已有所缓和 最新核心消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.6% 低于去年早些时候的3.3% 生产者价格指数(PPI)同比上涨3.0% 仍低于去年3.7%的高点 [12] - 美联储偏爱的通胀指标个人消费支出(PCE)指数为2.8% 低于上月的2.9%和去年3.0%的高点 [13] - 通胀缓解使美联储在去年三次降息 并维持今年再次降息的展望 利率下降预计将使货币市场资金回流股市 [13][14] 企业盈利展望 - 企业盈利是股价的主要驱动力 2025年第三季度财报季表现再次超出预期 [15] - 当前已开始的2025年第四季度财报季 预计每股收益(EPS)增长率为7.9% 2026年第一季度预计增长11.8% 第二季度预计增长14.0% [15] - 尽管存在关税和衰退担忧 但总体盈利预测并未显示出这些影响 [16] 小盘股表现与机遇 - 小盘股罗素2000指数在2026年初领涨所有主要指数 去年下半年已开始跑赢标普500指数 [17] - 由于小盘股通常债务比例更高且借款条件较差 利率下降预计将对其产生显著积极影响 [18] - 去年夏天通过的预算法案包含针对企业的额外税收条款 特别是资本支出的100%即时费用化 这将尤其有利于处于增长周期早期的小盘股 助其加速增长计划 [18][19] 投资策略与选股方法 - 采用Zacks排名第一(强力买入)的股票在过往38年中有29年跑赢市场 胜率76% 年均回报率近24% 是标普500指数回报的两倍多 [21] - 在排名前50%行业内的股票 其表现优于后50%行业内股票的两倍 个股价格变动的一半可归因于其所属行业组别 [22] - “新高”策略在过去26年(2000-2025)年均回报39.6% 同期标普500指数年均回报8.1% 该策略回报是市场的4.9倍 [26] - “小盘成长”策略结合小盘股的积极增长与特定的增长和估值指标 在过去26年年均回报42.4% 是市场回报的5.2倍 [27] - “过滤Zacks排名5”策略在Zacks排名第一的股票基础上增加过滤器 每周筛选出5支高概率股票 在过去26年年均回报45.4% 是市场回报的5.6倍 [28]

Key Takeaways ALK is set to report 4Q25 results on Jan. 22, with revenues estimated at $3.64B, suggesting 3.1% y/y growth.Passenger revenues likely rose on domestic demand and Thanksgiving travel, with a 14.7% projected increase.Earnings expectations were cut sharply, with Q4 EPS estimates down 64.5%, implying an 88.7% y/y drop.Alaska Air Group (ALK) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 22, 2026, after market close.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ALK’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per ...

Southwest Airlines (LUV) could be a solid addition to your portfolio given a notable revision in the company's earnings estimates. While the stock has been gaining lately, the trend might continue since its earnings outlook is still improving.The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this airline, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisi ...

nLight (LASR) appears an attractive pick given a noticeable improvement in the company's earnings outlook. The stock has been a strong performer lately, and the momentum might continue with analysts still raising their earnings estimates for the company.The rising trend in estimate revisions, which is a result of growing analyst optimism on the earnings prospects of this laser maker, should get reflected in its stock price. After all, empirical research shows a strong correlation between trends in earnings ...

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Baker Hughes (BKR) , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Field Services industry.When looking at the last two reports, this oilfield services company has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 13.01%, on average, in the last two quarters.For the most recent quarter, Baker Hughes was expected to post ...

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Amphenol (APH) , which belongs to the Zacks Electronics - Connectors industry.When looking at the last two reports, this maker of fiber-optic products has recorded a strong streak of surpassing earnings estimates. The company has topped estimates by 20.22%, on average, in the last two quarters.For the most recent quarter, Amphenol was expected to post earning ...

If you are looking for a stock that has a solid history of beating earnings estimates and is in a good position to maintain the trend in its next quarterly report, you should consider Artisan Partners Asset Management (APAM) . This company, which is in the Zacks Financial - Investment Management industry, shows potential for another earnings beat.This investment management firm has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an ...

Looking for a stock that has been consistently beating earnings estimates and might be well positioned to keep the streak alive in its next quarterly report? Stifel Financial (SF) , which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Investment Bank industry, could be a great candidate to consider.This brokerage and investment banking firm has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 4.52% ...

Investors looking for stocks in the REIT and Equity Trust - Retail sector might want to consider either Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (PECO) or Tanger (SKT) . But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look.We have found that the best way to discover great value opportunities is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with a great grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The Zacks Rank is a proven strategy that targets compan ...

Investors with an interest in Oil and Gas - Production and Pipelines stocks have likely encountered both Transportadora De Gas Sa Ord B (TGS) and Williams Companies, Inc. (The) (WMB) . But which of these two stocks is more attractive to value investors? We'll need to take a closer look to find out.There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. ...