The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. The 10-year note jumped to its highest level in nearly three weeks while the 2-year note climbed to its highest level in over a month this week. The yield on the 10-year note finished October 31, 2025 at 4.11% while the 2- year note ende ...

Leading economic figures are issuing stark warnings that the month-long government shutdown is beginning to “materially damage” the U.S. economy. Moynihan Cautions Of Economic ‘Malaise’ Amid Prolonged ShutdownBank of America Corp. (NYSE:BAC) CEO Brian Moynihan, in a conversation with Fortune, cautioned that the prolonged standoff risks causing economic “malaise,” while Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated a recession is “more likely than not” if the impasse lasts through the end of the year. ...

Vivian Tu, the former Wall Street trader turned personal finance creator behind Your Rich BFF, has built a massive following by making money advice actually useful. When economic downturns hit, her strategies for her audience shift from wealth-building mode to recession survival. For You: The One Dangerous Habit Keeping You in Credit Card Debt, According to Liz Claman Learn About: 3 Advanced Investing Moves Experts Use to Minimize Taxes and Help Boost Returns Here are the five money moves Tu recommends wh ...

The S&P 500 ( SP500 ) closed at a new all-time high at 6858 on Monday. The triggers were 1) the soft CPI data on Friday pointing to another Fed cut andAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this a ...

Good news for law schools and MBA programs: applications are on the rise. Amid a challenging job market, students are turning to what they see as a safer bet—skilling up in hopes of becoming more attractive to prospective employers. Gen Z graduates have faced a difficult path to landing full-time roles out of college. The entry-level job market has been challenging, with limited opportunities and the threat that AI tools will automate their roles. Instead of facing the bleak job market head-on, law school ...

meeting. Joining us here at Post9 is DWS Group, America's CIO, David Biano. David, thanks for coming in.>> Carl, thanks. >> Interesting action today in that we basically jumped up 60 points and it barely budged in the first couple hours. >> Yeah, it's uh looking like a great October, right.A treat. Um earning season's going well so far. Expecting it to go well for the rest of this week when we get 40% of S&P profits reported.But a day like today, again, the tech, the chip names are stealing everybody's inte ...

The Federal Reserve has been in the spotlight lately as it cut interest rates to keep the economy moving. But what does this mean for inflation? To get a clear picture, GOBankingRates asked ChatGPT what would happen to inflation if the Fed kept cutting rates. The answer was straightforward: “If the Federal Reserve keeps cutting interest rates, inflation will likely rise. How much depends on how fast and how far those rate cuts go.” Check Out: I Asked ChatGPT What Will Happen To the Stock Market If the Fed ...

公司业绩与市场反应 - 公司因利润率压力而下调业绩指引 导致股价被大量抛售 单日下跌10点或5.6% [1] - 公司近期摆脱疲弱态势 公布出色的业绩 推动股价自评论以来上涨超过12% [2][2] 行业背景与市场观点 - 在全球因极端关税动荡而预期经济衰退的背景下 同行业公司普遍倾向于下调业绩预期 [2] - 公司的强劲表现可能提振整个芯片板块 [2]

国债收益率水平 - 截至2025年10月24日，10年期国债收益率为4.02%，2年期为3.48%，30年期为4.59% [1] - 图表展示了自2007年以来多种国债的每日表现及联邦基金利率的走势 [1] 收益率曲线倒挂 - 收益率曲线倒挂指长期国债收益率低于短期国债收益率，10年与2年期利差被广泛视为可靠的经济衰退领先指标 [2] - 从首次出现负利差到经济衰退开始的平均领先时间为48周（约11个月），若以衰退前最后一次正利差日期计算，平均领先时间为18.5周（约4.25个月） [4] - 该指标曾出现一次错误信号（1998年），且2009年衰退前利差多次转负，最近一次持续负利差期为2022年7月5日至2024年8月26日 [3] 其他期限利差分析 - 10年期与3个月期利差转负后，到经济衰退开始的领先时间范围为34至69周 [5] - 该利差近期从2022年10月25日至2024年12月12日为负值，自2025年2月26日起在正负区间摆动 [5] - 以首次负利差计算，平均领先时间为48周（约11个月），以负利差期后最后一次正利差计算，平均领先时间为13周（约3个月） [6] 抵押贷款利率与联邦基金利率关系 - 联邦基金利率影响银行借贷成本，其上升通常导致抵押贷款利率上升，但近期出现背离，美联储于2025年9月开始降息周期时，抵押利率却反向移动 [7] - 近期在美联储维持利率稳定期间，抵押贷款利率呈下降趋势，房地美最新每周初级抵押贷款市场调查显示30年期固定利率为6.19%，为一年来最低水平 [7] 市场影响因素与相关产品 - 美联储政策对市场行为有主要影响，图表展示了10年期国债收益率与标普500指数的对比及美联储干预的注释 [8] - 与国债相关的ETF包括Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL)、Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT)和Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Research by Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, showed earlier in the year (2) and again recently (3) that the top 10% of earners in the country are responsible for nearly 50% of all consumer spending. The data also show that the bottom 80% — those making under $175,000 a year — are merely keeping pace with inflation (4). He added that if those high-earners “turn more cautious” about spending, “the economy has a big problem.”One explanation for the mixed economic signals is that rising co ...