全球宏观展望与策略电话会议纪要分析 涉及的行业与公司 * 本次会议纪要为摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）发布的全球宏观展望与策略研究报告，涉及全球利率、外汇、大宗商品及新兴市场等多个宏观资产类别 [1][3][5] * 报告未针对特定上市公司进行讨论，而是对宏观经济、央行政策及大类资产配置进行系统性分析 核心观点与论据 全球宏观与央行政策展望 * **全球央行转向鹰派**：自11月底以来，发达市场（DM）利率普遍上涨，主要受央行基调普遍转向鹰派、数据表现强劲以及头寸平仓驱动 [4][39] * **美联储政策路径**：美联储的“保险式降息”阶段已结束，市场对美联储的中期预期现已更接近摩根大通的预测 [3][14] * **2026年增长与通胀预测**：预计2026年全球及新兴市场的增长和通胀变化不大，央行宽松政策有限 [6] * **具体央行预测**： * **美联储**：预计在2026年第一季度进一步降息25个基点，之后在2026年剩余时间按兵不动，目标利率区间降至3.25-3.5% [11] * **英国央行**：预计在2025年12月、2026年3月和6月分别降息25个基点 [40] * **日本央行**：预计在2025年12月加息25个基点至0.75%，并可能在2026年4月再次加息 [40][51] * **其他DM央行**：预计欧央行、瑞典央行等将在2026年维持政策利率不变 [40] 美国利率市场 * **收益率预测**：预计2年期和10年期美债收益率在2026年上半年分别达到3.60%和4.25%，到2026年底分别达到3.85%和4.35% [9][11] * **供需分析**： * **供给端**：美国财政部在2026财年将出现较大的融资缺口，预计从2026年11月开始增加前端和中期债券的发行规模 [21][22] * **需求端**：价格敏感型投资者持有美债比例上升，有助于改善供需平衡 [3] * 外国官方需求可能因外汇储备温和增长和波动性环境温和而回升，但私人需求可能因收益率上升和利差吸引力下降而减弱 [30] * 共同基金/ETF需求预计保持稳定，货币市场基金可能吸收50%的净短期国库券供应 [31][32] * **交易策略**：鉴于近期收益率大幅上升，建议对2年/5年/10年期蝶式策略（belly-cheapening butterflies）获利了结 [3][18][40] 国际利率市场 * **整体策略**：在年底前普遍降低投资组合风险 [4][40] * **地区策略**： * **欧元区**：了结10年期德债多头头寸；在区内保持低贝塔的看涨利差暴露，例如超配30年期欧盟债券 vs 做空30年期法国和德国债券 [44][59] * **英国**：继续持有1年期远期SONIA利率接收头寸，因估值相对于英国央行基准情景显得便宜 [48][56] * **日本**：市场已完全定价12月加息，且投资者在为1.25-1.50%的更高中性利率做准备，日本央行在下次会议上鹰派超预期的门槛很高 [51][57] * **澳新地区**：澳新市场引领了非美货币前端收益率的上升；已了结澳大利亚10年期国债与美债利差收窄的头寸，并对新西兰2年期利率互换（IRS）获利了结 [55][58] 外汇市场 * **美元展望**：看跌美元，但跌幅可能受限于美国经济增长超预期以及美元利差优势的持续 [63] * **驱动主题**：偏好高贝塔/高收益货币；主要交易主题包括全球顺周期性、央行在高利率水平同步暂停、低波动性、财政与货币贬值担忧、AI投资影响以及发达市场融资的套利交易 [64][69][72] * **主要货币对观点**： * **欧元/美元**：温和看涨，基于增长/德国财政因素，短期看1.16-1.18，第二季度看1.20；上行空间有限，除非美国数据显著走弱 [85][87] * **美元/日元**：看跌日元，预计2026年第一季度为157，第四季度为164；随着全球其他地区宽松周期结束，日本政策行动阻止日元贬值的效力下降 [88][90] * **人民币**：中国股市潜在上涨和美元进一步回流可能对人民币汇率构成上行风险；预计美元/人民币2026年第一季度为7.10，第四季度为7.05 [91][95] 大宗商品市场 * **指数再平衡影响**：可可重新纳入彭博商品指数（BCOM）预计将引发相当于总未平仓合约22%的指数再平衡买盘，远超玉米、小麦、糖和棉花的温和买盘 [6][101] * **能源**： * **原油**：尽管制裁扩大，俄罗斯原油流向亚洲仍保持韧性，中国和印度继续大量进口 [106] * **天然气**：西北欧（NWE）天然气净库存提取量高于189百万立方米/天的预测水平，尽管需求趋势弱于预期 [6][111] * **基础金属**：对铜价持建设性看法，基于全球库存严重错位和美国对精炼铜的持续需求拉动 [115] * **贵金属**：只要围绕232条款关键矿产的不确定性持续并限制流动性，白银、铂金和钯金仍易受价格波动性上行影响；年底至年初是黄金等贵金属的季节性强劲期 [6][119] * **农产品**：美国农业部12月报告显示，全球小麦库存因加拿大和阿根廷创纪录高产而上升；美国玉米库存因出口强劲而下降 [6][120][121] 新兴市场 * **总体立场**：超配（OW）新兴市场外汇，并通过高收益债券超配新兴市场利率；对新兴市场主权和企业债券持中性（MW）观点，因利差已处于历史低位 [6][33] * **新兴市场利率**：超配新兴市场利率，重点在欧非中东和拉美新兴市场 vs 中性看待亚洲新兴市场；高收益债券相对于低收益债券的利差压缩是看涨利率观点的关键 [124][128] * **新兴市场外汇**：进入2026年超配新兴市场外汇，偏好高收益货币；主要回报主题已转变为套利交易，而整体看跌美元的趋势自7月以来已停滞 [129][131] * **新兴市场信用债**：预计新兴市场债券指数（EMBIGD）利差在2026年底位于280个基点，较当前水平温和扩大约7个基点；鉴于基本面相对强劲且美国衰退风险消退，利差可能维持在紧张水平 [134][138] 其他重要内容 * **美国经济预测**：预计2026年美国GDP增长1.8%（第四季度同比），核心PCE通胀保持坚挺于2.7%（第四季度同比）；失业率在2026年第一季度达到峰值4.5%，随后在第四季度缓解至4.3% [11] * **美国财政细节**：债务上限提高5万亿美元，估计可维持至2027年下半年；美联储预计将在2026年于二级市场购买总计4900亿美元的短期国库券 [25] * **中国去美元化**：中国约28%的货物贸易以人民币计价（截至2025年上半年），较2018年的约12%稳步增长；公共部门的国内去美元化也在悄然推进 [95] * **AI对汇率的影响**：套利交易是外汇市场最清晰的AI主题表达，因其对股市的贝塔暴露以及在过往创新周期中的历史表现；铜出口国（如澳元、智利比索）也将受益 [71][74]

The wheat complex was mixed on Friday, with the KC wheat market being the weakest. Chicago SRW futures were up 1 to 2 cents to round out Friday, as March was 19 ½ cents lower this week. KC HRW futures saw 1 to 2 cent losses, as March was just 2 ¾ cents in the red this week. MPLS spring wheat was 5 to 6 cents higher on Friday, with March closing the week up 2 ¼ cents. Export Sales data will be released on Monday morning, catching up for the week ending on 12/4, with analysts looking for between 300,000-60 ...

The wheat complex is in rally mode on Thursday with the hard red contracts pushing higher. Chicago SRW futures are 2 to 3 cents in the green. KC HRW futures are 9 to 10 cents higher at midday. MPLS spring wheat is up 8 to 9 ½ cents on Thursday. Export Sales data from this morning for the week ending on November 27 showed 460,655 MT of wheat sales in that week. That was in the middle of the 250,000-600,000 MT trade estimates. That was a 27.4% increase from last week and 21.8% larger than the same week last ...

Wheat is showing mostly higher trade on Thursday morning. The wheat complex posted mixed action on Wednesday, with HRW holding higher. Chicago SRW futures were down 2 to 3 ¼ cents on the day. Open interest was up 6,457 contracts, suggesting new selling interest. KC HRW futures were up 2 to 3 cents at the close. OI was up 4,203 contracts. MPLS spring wheat was down 3 cents in the nearby contracts on Wednesday. Export Sales data will be this morning for the week ending on November 27, with wheat sales seen ...

Corn is starting Wednesday trade with contracts fractionally to a penny higher. Futures closed out the Tuesday session with most contracts 2 to 3 ¼ cents lower at the final bell. Preliminary open interest data suggested new selling, rising 10,345 contracts. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 3 1/4 cents to $3.92 3/4. There was some outside pressure, with losses in wheat adding spillover weakness and crude oil dropping $1.61/barrel. More News from Barchart EIA data will be released ...

Corn futures closed out the Tuesday session with most contracts 2 to 3 ¼ cents lower at the final bell. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 3 1/4 cents to $3.92 3/4. There was some outside pressure, with losses in wheat adding spillover weakness and crude oil dropping $1.61/barrel. More News from Barchart EIA data will be released on Wednesday with some expecting ethanol production to be steady to slightly lower than last week. Mar 26 Corn  closed at $4.36 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents, ...

The wheat complex is continuing the losses at midday on Tuesday. Chicago SRW futures are 9 to 11 3/4 cents lower across most contracts. KC HRW futures are 6 to 7 cents in the red at midday. MPLS spring wheat is down 2 to 3 cents across the front months. The forecast for the next week call for a dry pattern in much of the Southern Plains. The 7-day QPF from NOAA shows SRW country with as much as an inch. More News from Barchart Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in CBT wheat futures and optio ...

Wheat is showing losses across the three markets early on Tuesday. The wheat complex was under pressure on Monday. Chicago SRW futures were 8 to 9 cents lower across most contracts to start the week. New selling interest was picked up, with open interest rising 13,890 contracts. KC HRW futures were 6 to 7 cents in the red at the close. MPLS spring wheat was down 6 to 7 cents across the front months on Monday. Monday morning’s Export Inspections report showed a total of 488,025 MT (17.93 mbu) of wheat shi ...

Deadly flooding in Asia and early snowstorms across the US are signaling the return of a weather-roiling La Niña, a cooling of Pacific waters that can disrupt economies and trigger disasters worldwide.In recent La Niña years, global losses have ranged from $258 billion to $329 billion, according to Aon, a reinsurance broker and data analysis firm. Despite year-to-year swings in damage totals, the overall trajectory is unmistakable: Extreme weather is pushing losses higher. The La Niña phenomenon is often li ...

研究核心发现 - 研究发现禾谷镰孢菌侵染小麦时会诱导寄主组织碱化以增强自身致病力[1] - 小麦穗部天然微生物群落中的寄主酸化型假单胞菌能被招募至感染部位分泌有机酸降低pH值从而抑制赤霉病发展[1] - 该研究揭示了寄主病原体与有益微生物围绕pH值的相互作用机制为作物绿色防控提供了新思路[2] 研究过程与数据 - 研究团队通过小麦穗部微生物群落分析和宏转录组学研究发现假单胞菌属在染病小麦穗部显著富集[7] - 从染病小麦穗部分离的595个细菌菌株中包括196个假单胞菌分离株并从中鉴定出寄主酸化型假单胞菌[7] - 体外实验证实小麦穗部对特定寄主酸化假单胞菌存在选择性促进作用[7] - 田间试验表明寄主酸化假单胞菌菌株能有效防控赤霉病[7] 研究意义与展示 - 该研究发表于Cell子刊Cell Host & Microbe并被选为当期封面论文[1] - 封面图片用镰状图标代表禾谷镰孢菌用红色和蓝色微生物分别代表促进或抑制碱化的假单胞菌菌株形象展示了微生物组驱动的微环境调节如何增强植物防御[6] - 研究展示了通过调控寄主微环境pH值实现作物病害可持续防控的新路径[7]