Corn futures posted Thursday gains of 3 to 5 ½ cents across most contracts on the day, getting spillover support from wheat and soybeans. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up 3 3/4 cents at $3.98 3/4. Export Sales data from this morning showed a total of 2.07 MMT of corn sold in the week of February 5. That was nearly double the pervious week and 25.5% larger than the same week last year. The largest buyer was Japan at 616,600 MT, with 336,800 MT sold to South Korea and 274,900MT to Colom ...

The wheat complex is trading with gains across all three exchanges at midday.  Chicago SRW futures are 10 to 12 cents higher at midday. KC HRW futures are 12 to 14 cents in the front months on Wednesday. MPLS spring wheat is trading with 5 to 6 cent gains in the front months. Export Sales data from USDA showed a total of 487,998 MT sold in the week ending on February 5, on the high side of traders’ estimates of between 200,000 and 500,000 MT. That was 30.52% above last week but still 14.32% below the same ...

**行业与公司** * 行业：大宗商品，具体涵盖贵金属（黄金、白银）、工业金属（铜、铝、镍等）、能源（石油、煤炭、天然气）和农产品（小麦、大米等）[4][9][16] * 公司：高盛（Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC）及其研究团队[3] **核心观点与论据** **关键相似点：“保险”型需求上升** * 黄金市场：持续的央行购买（作为“保险”）支撑了黄金牛市，其动因是储备管理者在2022年俄罗斯约3000亿美元储备被冻结后，重新评估了其资产组合的地缘政治中立性[11] * 更广泛的大宗商品市场：自2022年以来，为应对疫情（2020年）、能源危机（2022年）等冲击，各国政策更注重大宗商品供应安全，表现为增加进口关税、出口管制、国家支持国内生产以及建立政府库存等措施[4][12] * 需求主体扩展：此类“保险”型需求已从公共部门（央行、政府）扩展至私人部门投资者，他们为应对不确定的全球政策环境而转向硬资产以实现多元化，进一步推高了金属价格并放大了价格波动[4][49] **关键差异点：供应端反应不同** * 黄金：已开采黄金存量巨大（约22万吨），约为年矿产供应量的100倍，且年供应量稳定，对价格反应迟钝，因此“保险”需求能对价格产生持续的上行压力[50] * 其他大宗商品：供应在塑造中期价格趋势中作用更大，生产商能对价格信号做出反应（如美国页岩油），从而有助于缓解需求冲击[4][55] * 政策风险：以提高供应可靠性为目标的政策也可能激励过度生产，导致价格疲软，并可能加剧供应集中度，从而增加供应中断和价格飙升的风险[4][55] **市场结构变化：从全球化向区域化转变** * 趋势：风险管控政策正推动部分大宗商品市场从单一的全球供需平衡体系转向（至少是临时的）区域分割体系[4][28] * 影响：这增加了市场波动性风险。从全球统一的缓冲库存转向孤立的区域缓冲库存，会降低全球层面的有效库存覆盖率，使市场更容易进入“稀缺定价”区域，小幅冲击即可引发大幅价格波动[29][30] * 实例：尽管预计2025年全球铜供应过剩，但美国的囤积行为（受关税风险驱动）使美国以外的市场（价格设定地）出现供应短缺，从而支撑了铜价[4][34] * 实例：白银市场因贸易政策预期导致库存从伦敦（全球基准定价地）转移至美国，伦敦库存稀薄创造了市场挤压的条件，价格波动加剧。当前紧张局势下，每周1000吨的白银净需求对价格的推升作用（贝塔值）从通常的约2%飙升至约7%[38][40] **对中国的具体分析** * 能源安全：中国通过扩大国内煤炭生产和建设以可控金属为基础的可再生能源来加强能源安全，电气化进程首先是一项能源安全战略[17][20] * 粮食安全：中国领导人将粮食安全视为根本利益。高盛股票分析师预计，到2035年，中国的粮食自给率将从目前的约60%提升至90%以上，意味着国内消费的粮食几乎全部由国内生产[19][21][23] **其他重要发现与风险** * 价格影响机制：外部冲击（如农业市场的气候变化冲击）对价格的影响取决于冲击规模相对于吸收该冲击的市场规模。如果一个区域集团的市场规模是全球市场的一半，同样的冲击将产生两倍的价格影响[43][46][62] * 供应集中度：多个大宗商品市场的供应集中度很高，且大宗商品越来越多地被用作杠杆工具，这增加了供应中断风险[5][58][61] * 投资启示：在大类资产配置中，大宗商品可提供的“保险”价值值得强调[5][58] * 总体展望：预计黄金的长期价格上涨趋势将持续，但在基准情景下，更广泛的大宗商品领域的回报将更加分化，且波动性可能更高[4][5][10]

Wheat is trading with some Turnaround trade on Tuesday morning, with winter wheat trading higher and spring wheat trading lower, The wheat complex closed Monday with weakness across most contracts, as spring wheat tried to hold up. Chicago SRW futures were fractionally to a penny lower on the day. Open interest was down 5,866 contracts on Monday.  KC HRW futures were down 1 to 3 cents in most contracts. OI dropped 4,119 contracts on Monday. MPLS spring wheat was fractionally higher to 2 cents lower at the ...

The wheat complex is showing slight losses across the three markets on Monday. Chicago SRW futures are 1 to 2 1/2 cents lower at midday. KC HRW futures are down 3 to 4 cents in most contracts. MPLS spring wheat is steady to 3 cents lower as we trade through midday. USDA’s FGIS tallied wheat export shipments at 580,130 MT (21.32 mbu) during the week ending on February 5. That was 75.52% above the week prior and 1.72% larger than the same week last year. The Philippines was the top destination of 179,957 MT ...

Wheat is showing mostly lower trade in the winter wheat contracts, with spring wheat slightly higher. The wheat complex fell lower on Friday, with contracts down across the three markets. Chicago SRW futures were 5 to 6 cents lower on Friday, as March was 8 ¼ cents in the red on the week. Open interest was down 8,052 contracts on Friday. KC HRW futures were down 7 to 8 cents in most contracts, as March slipped 13 ½ cents last week. OI was down 6,401 contracts. MPLS spring wheat was steady to 2 cents lower, ...

The wheat complex fell lower on Friday, with contracts down across the three markets. Chicago SRW futures were 5 to 6 cents lower on Friday, as March was 8 ¼ cents in the red at the close. KC HRW futures were down 7 to 8 cents in most contracts, as March slipped 13 ½ cents this week. MPLS spring wheat was steady to 2 cents lower, as March was down 8 ¼ cents on the week. Export Sales data has wheat export commitments at 21974 MMT, a 17% improvement from last year for the same week. That is now 90% of USDA ...

The wheat complex is trading with midday losses across the three markets on Friday. Chicago SRW futures are trading with 5 to 6 cent losses on Friday. KC HRW futures are down 5 to 7 cents in most contracts. MPLS spring wheat is steady to a penny lower. Export Sales data has wheat export commitments at 21974 MMT, a 17% improvement from last year for the same week. That is now 90% of USDA’s forecast and slightly behind the 91% average pace. More News from Barchart USDA will release updated WASDE data on ...

The wheat complex is trading with gains across the three markets on Thursday. Chicago SRW futures are 8 to 9 cents higher in the front months. KC HRW futures are 7 to 8 cents in the green at midday. MPLS spring wheat is up 2 to 3 cents so far. Export Sales data from this morning showed 373,877 MT of wheat sold in the week of January 29, on the lower side of analysts looking for between 300,000 and 600,000 MT. That was down 33.02% from the previous week and 14.81% below the same week last year. Another 41, ...

地缘政治与谈判态势 - 乌克兰夜间遭受450架无人机和超过70枚导弹袭击 袭击恰逢本周美国斡旋的谈判将于阿布扎比恢复之际[1] - 预测市场交易员认为在2026年底前达成正式停火的可能性接近抛硬币的概率 而Polymarket交易员已将“2026年底前停火”的几率推高至46%[1][2] - 乌克兰官员认为俄罗斯利用能源袭击暂停期储备了更多武器以发动更大规模打击 而莫斯科方面则表示暂停期已结束 这种局面支持一种常见的谈判策略 即通过施加压力试图在谈判桌上换取让步[1] 对大宗商品及ETF的潜在影响 - 对于美国石油基金 阿布扎比传出的和平消息将对原油的地缘政治风险溢价产生直接的下行压力[3] - 印度已同意停止购买俄罗斯石油 作为更广泛美国贸易协议的一部分 这可能通过重新规划全球供应流 部分抵消任何因和平带来的价格下跌[3] - 对于Teucrium小麦基金 停火叙事可能降低谷物风险溢价 但短期内基础设施遭破坏的情况仍至关重要 如果能源和运输网络遭破坏 即使取得政治进展也会减缓正常化进程[4][5] 对国防行业及公司的潜在影响 - 如果出现可信的停火框架 洛克希德·马丁公司可能面临重新定价[4] - 在冲突升级周期中支撑国防板块的“紧急补充”论点可能会软化 因为投资者会重新评估对硬件的即时需求[4]