量子计算行业反弹 - 量子计算股票在经历数周大幅下跌后于周三早盘尝试反弹 [1] - 反弹由行业巨头IonQ、Rigetti Computing和D-Wave Quantum引领 这些公司股价在近期回撤后似乎因买家回归而获得支撑 [1] 美国政府资金支持 - 美国能源部宣布6.25亿美元资金承诺 用于支持五个国家量子研究中心未来五年的研发 [2] - 该投资旨在加速计算、量子传感和安全通信领域的突破 确立美国在该领域的全球领导地位 [2] - 上周有报道称美国商务部考虑以换取联邦资金方式获得多家量子公司股权 但商务部否认正在进行积极谈判 [3] 技术突破进展 - D-Wave宣布完成与巴斯夫合作的联合概念验证项目 使用混合量子应用优化制造工作流程 [4] - 谷歌的Willow芯片首次展示可验证的量子优势 其计算分子结构的速度远超传统超级计算机 [4] 即将到来的财报焦点 - 投资者焦点转向即将发布的财报 IonQ将于周三收盘后公布第三季度业绩 预计每股亏损44美分 营收2698万美元 [5] - D-Wave将于周四开盘前公布财报 Rigetti计划于下周一发布第三季度业绩 [5]

Investors in pure-play quantum computing stocks are grappling to value these futuristic companies, making prices highly volatile for the latest hot trend on Wall Street. ...

量子计算股票的泡沫风险 - 量子计算股票经历了抛物线式上涨，随后可能出现史诗级暴跌 [1] - 四只量子计算纯业务股票IonQ、Rigetti Computing、D-Wave Quantum和Quantum Computing Inc在截至10月31日的过去12个月中回报率高达3170% [2] - 这些公司的市值范围从Quantum Computing Inc的37亿美元到IonQ的217亿美元，缺乏数据或历史先例支持如此高的估值 [3] 量子计算行业潜力与驱动因素 - 量子计算利用量子力学理论解决传统计算机甚至超级计算机无法处理的复杂问题 [5] - 其潜在应用包括加速AI算法学习过程、运行分子相互作用模拟以帮助药物开发者提高临床试验成功率、挑战现有依赖AI的网络安全平台以增强安全性、改进天气建模与预报、优化投资组合和辅助风险管理 [5] - 据The Quantum Insider估计，该技术可能在10年后创造1万亿美元的经济价值 [6] - 行业受到合作伙伴关系和融资前景的推动，例如特朗普政府曾讨论入股量子计算股票 [7] - 亚马逊和微软通过其量子云服务为订阅者提供IonQ和Rigetti Computing的量子计算机访问权限，这种与华尔街有影响力企业的早期合作有助于提升量子计算解决方案的知名度 [8] - 害怕错过机会的情绪和动量驱动投资也导致了股票抛物线式上涨 [9] 泡沫破裂的预警信号 - 过去三十多年中，每一项具有颠覆性的新技术在早期都经历了泡沫破裂事件，例如互联网 [12] - 投资者持续高估了所谓颠覆性技术被广泛采用或产生效用的速度，这在互联网、纳米技术、3D打印、区块链技术、元宇宙以及AI领域均有体现 [14] - 大多数量子计算解决方案仍处于开发或非常早期的商业化阶段，几乎没有企业知道如何优化量子计算服务或实现投资正回报 [15] - 基于对2027年销售额的共识预测，四家主要量子计算公司的预估市销率分别为IonQ 69倍、Rigetti Computing 359倍、D-Wave Quantum 181倍、Quantum Computing Inc 374倍，即使未来两年实现三位数年销售增长也无法证明当前估值的合理性 [18][21] - 当前股市处于历史第二昂贵水平，标普500席勒市盈率上周达到4120，历史表明该倍数超过30最终会导致标普500至少下跌20% [19] - 当市场出现回调、熊市或急剧下跌时，估值过高的公司往往受冲击最严重，量子计算股票在下次广泛市场下跌时将首当其冲 [20]

Valued at a market cap of over $20 billion, IonQ (IONQ) develops quantum computers and networks, selling access to systems of varying qubit capacities through cloud platforms including Amazon's (AMZN) AWS, Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure, and Alphabet's (GOOG) (GOOGL) Google Cloud. The Maryland-based company also provides quantum-safe networking solutions, quantum key distribution systems, random number generators, and single-photon detectors. Additionally, IonQ offers hardware design, consulting services, and a ...

CANADA - 2025/09/15: In this photo illustration, the IonQ logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesIonQ (IONQ) has been one of the market’s most closely watched quantum computing names — a company at the frontier of a transformative technology, but also one still searching for consistent profitability. After a strong run earlier in the year, investor sentiment has cooled amid broader p ...

人工智能行业整体观点 - 人工智能领域存在泡沫，尤其体现在部分特定公司上，过度乐观情绪推高了估值 [1][2] - 股市泡沫难以预测破裂时间，但泡沫最终会破裂并导致股价急剧下跌 [1][2] Palantir Technologies (PLTR) - 公司是领先的人工智能软件公司，拥有不断增长的政府和公司客户群，收入增长强劲且已实现盈利 [4][5] - 公司开发的专有人工智能软件应用广泛，已在实际场景中证明其效用，包括军事任务、供应链优化和金融欺诈检测等 [4][5] - 公司估值过高，市值高达4760亿美元，而过去12个月收入仅为34亿美元，市销率达到138倍，对2025年盈利预期的市盈率超过300倍 [7] - 高估值难以长期维持，一旦增长放缓或人工智能牛市失去动力，股价可能快速大幅下跌 [7] IonQ (IONQ) - 公司致力于开发商业用途的量子计算机，该技术潜力巨大但当前阶段仍具高度投机性 [8][9] - 现有量子计算机因对环境因素敏感而容易出错，目前主要用于研究，实用化可能仍需多年 [9][10] - 全球量子计算市场规模预计到2030年仅增长至42亿美元 [10] - 公司通过与云公司合作提供其Forte量子计算机系统访问权限，过去12个月收入仅为5200万美元，但市值高达220亿美元，市销率超过400倍 [11] - 量子计算市场成熟度不确定，公司能否主导市场及未来利润率均不明确，当前估值远超业务基本面，存在股价大幅下跌风险 [11][12]

行业现状 - 量子计算领域正在迅速升温 [1] - 行业目前仍处于早期阶段 [1]

Key Points Shares of quantum computing pure-play stocks IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum have catapulted higher by as much as 3,060% over the trailing year. On paper, quantum computers offer intriguing real-world utility, with one forecast expecting this technology to add $1 trillion in global economic value by 2035. However, low-water price targets by select Wall Street analysts point to clear deficiencies for quantum computing's hottest stocks. 10 stocks we like better than IonQ › If ...

Key Points The three pure-play quantum stocks have delivered gains ranging from 812% to 4,330% since Q3 2024, but they trade at extreme valuations exceeding 300 times sales. Major technology platforms and government agencies are investing billions, signaling quantum's shift from research to commercialization. Unlike dot-com companies, quantum companies have working technology and paying customers today. 10 stocks we like better than IonQ › Quantum computing stocks have taken Wall Street by storm. ...

Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may be compensated for promoting its services. If you choose to subscribe through his link, he will earn some extra money that supports his channel. His opinions remain his own and are unaffected by The Motley Fool. ...