If you look at uh the CME Fed watch, 96% chance, a 25 basis point cut. It seems to be the consensus we're going to get something. Is 50 basis points possible.I don't think so. I think you get 25 basis points. And I think the the more uh interesting dynamic surrounding this afternoon's Fed meeting is how many descents do we get.We potentially could get three descents. That's the first time since 1988. the dissents will be regarding what you're speaking toward, which is we should get a 50 basis point cut.So, ...

A rate cut will partly satisfy dovish capital markets, however, which have priced in a cut as a near certainty, with some even anticipating a 50bp move. A cut might also partially appease political pressure from a US administration pushing for significant easing. But by front loading rate easing, the Fed runs the risk of loosening before the inflation genie has been put firmly back in the bottle. This raises the danger of repeating its mis-steps last September, when the Fed trimmed rates by 50bps under ma ...

美联储利率决策市场关注度 - 9月17日美联储利率决议前 Google Trends上"美联储降息"搜索热度达到100峰值 华盛顿 马萨诸塞州和哥伦比亚特区关注度最高[1] - 相关搜索热词包括"美联储系统""联邦基金利率"及"今日美联储会议时间"(东部时间下午2点)[2] 加密货币市场资金流动 - 比特币从108,000美元低点反弹至115,000美元 交易所资金流出持续9天成为关键驱动因素[3][4] - 币安交易所出现持续资金外流 反映投资者在美联储会议前的提前布局行为[4] 利率政策对资产类别影响 - 预测市场显示美联储降息概率达92% 若实施降息将推动纳斯达克100指数及人工智能板块上涨[4][5] - 比特币和以太坊可能在未来三个月出现大幅波动 小型股和金融类股也将受益于利率下调[5]

Bitcoin whales inactive for more than a decade have started to wake up as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September 17 rate cut decision draws close. A Satoshi-era whale woke up on Wednesday and transferred 1,000 BTC worth to four new wallets, according to on-chain analytics platform Arkham. In 2013, this whale received 1,000 BTC in four chunks, with the price of Bitcoin hovering around $843. At Bitcoin’s current price of $117,000, the same stack is now worth a staggering $117 million. More dormant wallets h ...

US equity futures are flat into today's Fed decision, with the long end of the yield curve moving lower. As of 8:10am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, with Nvidia lower in premarket trading after the FT reported that China has ordered some companies to terminate orders for a certain type of AI chip (AMD -1%, AVGO flat). Other Mag7 names are flat. Cyclicals are under pressure. In other assets ahead of the Fed, the dollar is near its lowest level in three years although it is catching a bid after los ...

英伟达股价及市场影响 - 中国互联网监管机构要求公司不要购买英伟达产品 因英伟达在市场规模和权重方面的重要性[1] - 英伟达股价在盘前交易中下跌约1-2美元 盘中交易价格为17350美元 跌幅约0.75%[2][3] - 技术面上需要跌破155美元才能确认重要突破 目前股价仍处于支撑位[2] 美联储利率决议预期 - CME FedWatch工具显示市场预期25个基点降息概率为96% 50个基点降息概率较低[4] - 25个基点降息已被市场充分定价 重点关注鲍威尔讲话和点阵图指引[6][7] - 若美联储未暗示10月或12月会议可能再次降息25个基点 市场可能失望并出现抛售[6] 周期性板块表现 - 工业、材料和金融板块自杰克逊霍尔会议以来表现落后于大盘[8] - 科技、工业和金融板块仍保持最佳相对强度 尽管金融板块近期出现疲软[9] - 收益率曲线趋陡最终对金融板块有利 降息可能进一步推动曲线陡峭化[9] 中小盘股投资机会 - 美联储降息对中小盘股构成利好 可能迎来一到两次降息[11] - 投资组合增加制造业相关公司 因降息和特朗普税收政策预计将推动资本支出增加[10][12] - 避开MAG7股票（现称LAG7） 关注如Mueller Industries和Broadcom(AVGO)等中小市值公司[11] 工业板块及市场展望 - 工业板块开始显现改善迹象 加速折旧计划即将实施[12] - 市场反弹范围将比预期更广泛 6600点仅是中途站而非最终目标[13] - 预计市场将出现小幅回调 然后继续上行[13]

Reuters Investors think a rate cut this week is nearly a foregone conclusion as the Fed's meeting starts. JPMorgan thinks the most likely scenario is that the Fed will issue a "dovish cut." The bank laid out how much stocks could rise or fall for each possible outcome of the meeting. The moment investors have been waiting for all year is here. Markets have been clamoring for the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle, and the central bank is expected to finally trim its target rate durin ...

美联储利率决议对加密市场影响 - 市场普遍预期美联储将在9月17日FOMC会议上宣布25个基点降息[1] - 降息决策将直接影响加密货币行业资金流动方向[1] 降息对房地产及流动性影响 - 美国80%抵押贷款利率低于5% 导致房主缺乏再融资动力[3] - 降息将重启信贷流动性和市场循环机制[3] 资金流向加密资产领域 - 降息可能推动数万亿美元流动性转向另类收益型投资[2][4] - 鸽派货币政策或引发资金涌入生息型DeFi产品和RWA代币[4] 稳定币市场发展机遇 - 生息型稳定币总市值达137亿美元[7] - 降息可能加速资金流向生息型稳定币[5] - 稳定币正日益融入全球金融体系[6] 生息型稳定币产品特性 - 与传统美元锚定稳定币不同 通过现实资产支持或协议借贷产生收益[6] - 例如Ondo Finance的USDY由生息型美国国债支持 持有者可获得收益[7]

市场表现 - 道琼斯工业平均指数下跌约80点 [1][3] - 标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数基本持平 [2][3] - 罗素2000小型股指数下跌约0.25% [4] - 10年期国债收益率下降1个基点至4.03% [4] - 30年期国债收益率下降1个基点至4.64% [4] - 13周国债收益率下降至3.89% [5] - 能源板块领涨1.75% [5] - 公用事业板块下跌1.6% [6] - 特斯拉上涨2% 亚马逊 Meta 苹果上涨1% [6] - 英伟达下跌1.5% 微软下跌近1% [7] - 中国概念股表现强劲 阿里巴巴上涨2% 京东上涨3% 携程上涨近4% [7] 美联储政策 - 美联储预计将基准政策利率下调25个基点 [10] - 史蒂文·迈伦被确认为美联储理事 [9][10] - 市场预期今年将有三次降息 [28] - 美联储点阵图预计年底前还有两次降息 [25] - 通胀率约为3% 高于美联储2%的目标 [23] - 美联储可能上调2026年通胀预测 [24] 行业与公司动态 - 大麻ETF和韩国股票ETF表现领先 [8] - 中国科技股Kweb ETF今年上涨约40% [84] - 新上市公司CLA获得Compass Point买入评级 [58][59] - 拉尔夫·劳伦重申2026年指引 预计中期复合年增长率中个位数 [63][64] - 好时食品获高盛双重升级 从卖出调至买入 [68][69] - 好时食品股价上涨超过4% 年内涨幅超过14% [70] - 75%的好时产品价格低于4美元 [71] 房地产与建筑 - 建筑商信心指数9月维持在32 与8月持平 [39][40] - 未来销售预期达到六个月高点 [39] - 预计30年期固定利率在2026年下半年才能持续低于6% [45][46] - 建筑商获得开发建设贷款的利率与联邦基金利率更密切相关 [44] - 关税使房屋成本增加10-11% [56] 科技与投资 - 微软宣布在英国投资300亿美元 [101] - 其中150亿美元用于建设英国云和AI基础设施 [101] - 谷歌宣布68亿美元投资计划 [102][104] - 抖音重组方案包括美国实体持股80% 中国持股低于20% [77][78] - 英伟达因违反反垄断法受到中国调查 [90][91] - 中国科技公司估值相比美国AI科技显得异常便宜 [85] - 腾讯接近历史高点 携程表现强劲 [87] 消费者与零售 - 8月零售销售数据超出预期 [20] - 电子产品销售增长0.3% [108] - 百思买报告低个位数同店销售增长 [109] - 消费者更加注重价值选择 [112] - 高收入消费者推动支出 [122] - 低收入消费者也显示增长迹象 [123] - 住房周转率低影响大家电和电视销售 [115][117]

Wall Street pulled back slightly Tuesday as investors locked in profits following a string of record-setting gains and turned their focus to the Federal Reserve's closely watched policy meeting.The S&P 500 edged down 0.13% to close at 6,606.76 after touching a fresh intraday record earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.07% to 22,333.96, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 125.55 points, or 0.27%, to end at 45,757.90.Market leaders that powered much of this year's rally were under pr ...