The markets are discounting the odds at 17% for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.The dollar sank to a nearly 4-year low on Tuesday after President Trump said he’s comfortable with the recent weakness in the dollar. Also, the dollar continues to be under pressure as foreign investors pull capital from the US amid a growing budget deficit, fiscal profligacy, and widening political polarization.Fed comments on Friday were mixed for the dollar. On the positive side, St. Louis Fed Pres ...

The dollar is being undercut by risks to the Federal Reserve’s independence, a growing US budget deficit, fiscal profligacy, and widening political polarization. In addition, the dollar is weighed down by speculation that the US might coordinate FX intervention with Japan to boost the yen, which would dovetail with Mr. Trump’s apparent view that a weak dollar is good for the US as a stimulus to US exports. The yen rose to a 2.75-month high against the dollar on Tuesday as US authorities reportedly contacted ...

The dollar is also under pressure due to US political uncertainty after President Trump on Saturday threatened 100% tariffs on US imports from Canada if Canada signs a trade agreement with China. Canada is seeking other trade partners amid President Trump’s liberal use of tariffs during this second administration.The risk of another partial US government shutdown is also weighing on the dollar. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding af ...

In addition, the dollar is weighed down by speculation that the US might coordinate FX intervention with Japan to boost the yen, which would dovetail with Mr. Trump's apparent view that a weak dollar is good for the US as a stimulus to US exports. The yen rose to a 2.75-month high against the dollar on Tuesday as US authorities reportedly contacted market participants last Friday to check dollar/yen prices, a possible precursor to intervention.The dollar is also under pressure due to US political uncertaint ...

The markets are discounting the odds at 3% for a -25 bp rate cut at the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting.The risk of another partial US government shutdown is also weighing on the dollar. Senate Democrats threatened to block a government funding deal over Department of Homeland Security/ICE funding after the ICE shooting of an ICU nurse in Minnesota on Saturday. There could be a partial government shutdown when the current stopgap funding measure expires this Friday. In addition, the dollar is being under ...

By Mike Dolan Jan 28 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets The dollar managed to get a toehold on Wednesday after a withering drop to a four-year low overnight. President Donald Trump appeared to embrace the move, saying the ​dollar was "great." This adds to growing market speculation that the administration wants a more significant depreciation of what it sees as an overvalued ‌currency. Markets will immediately wonder if that tallies wit ...

ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 27 (Reuters) - World stocks and the S&P 500 hit new highs on Tuesday, boosted by a flood of strong U.S. earnings reports, while anxiety over U.S. President Donald Trump's policy direction sent safe-haven gold to fresh peaks and sank ​the dollar to a four-year low. More on that below. In my column today I look at why Japanese authorities might still unilaterally ‌intervene in the FX market to support the yen, even though the chances of joint action with the United States are probably ...

美元指数表现 - 彭博美元现货指数下跌0.4%，跌至2022年3月以来最低水平 [1] - 美元连续第四日下跌，并录得自5月以来最差单周表现 [1] 美元走弱的原因 - 投资者因华盛顿不可预测的政策（如前总统特朗普威胁接管格陵兰）而趋于谨慎 [2] - 长期风险包括美联储独立性受威胁、预算赤字增长、财政挥霍担忧以及政治两极分化加剧 [2] - 结构性拖累因素包括对美国贸易和安全政策信心减弱、美联储政治化以及美国财政信誉恶化，这些因素可能超过中性的周期性背景 [3] - 有迹象显示美国支持提振日元，重燃了通过协调干预引导美元对主要贸易伙伴货币贬值的猜测 [4] - 美联储官员对美元/日元汇率的询价操作进一步压低了美元 [5] 主要货币对表现 - 日元兑美元汇率在纽约市场上涨约0.7%，至153.03 [5] - 本月日元曾接近160兑1美元，为2024年以来最弱水平，后因干预猜测反弹 [5] - 欧元兑美元汇率升至1.1939，为2021年以来最强水平 [6] - 英镑兑美元汇率上涨0.5%，至1.3748，为7月以来最高水平 [6] 市场观点与交易动态 - G10货币期权本周成交量大增，支持了美元贬值主题正获得投资者关注的观点 [7] - 宏观交易员正自行判断美元处于下行趋势 [7]

美元汇率走势 - 美元指数跌至四个月低点96.808，年初至今累计下跌超过1% [8][11] - 美元承压源于多重因素，包括潜在的美国政府停摆以及前总统特朗普不稳定的政策制定 [1][11] 日元汇率动态 - 日元兑美元汇率在过去两个交易日内大幅反弹约3%，从周五低点159.23升至154.24 [2][11] - 日元走强主要受美日可能协调干预汇市的预期推动，纽约联储周五向交易商核查了美元/日元汇率 [5][11] 主要货币对表现 - 欧元兑美元汇率持稳于1.1878，周一曾触及高点1.19075 [7][11] - 英镑兑美元汇率前一交易日触及高点1.37125，最新报1.3678 [7][11] - 澳元兑美元报0.6914，新西兰元兑美元报0.5970，均持稳于近期涨幅 [7][11] 美联储与政策环境 - 美联储于周二开启为期两天的政策会议，但会议焦点被政治事件所掩盖 [9][11] - 市场关注美联储的独立性，因特朗普政府正对主席鲍威尔进行刑事调查，并试图解雇理事丽莎·库克 [9][11] - 若鲍威尔在五月主席任期结束后辞去理事职务，可能加剧市场对美联储独立性受损的担忧，并对美元构成下行风险 [10][11] 外汇干预前景 - 美日当局已就外汇问题进行密切协调，但分析师认为协调干预的门槛很高，可能不会如市场预期般迅速到来 [5][6] - 干预可能性使投资者对再次推低日元持谨慎态度，但市场可能在未来再次测试日本当局的决心 [6][11]

美元指数表现及驱动因素 - 周四美元指数下跌0.42% 主要受股市上涨削弱美元流动性需求以及欧元走强影响 [1] - 欧元走强源于欧洲地缘政治紧张局势缓解 特朗普取消了对反对其收购格陵兰岛国家的商品加征关税威胁 [1][4] - 尽管美元走弱 但当日美国经济数据表现强劲 对美元构成支撑 [1] 美国经济数据表现 - 当周初请失业金人数增加1000人至20万人 低于预期的20.9万人 显示劳动力市场强于预期 [1][2] - 第三季度GDP年化季率从4.3%上修0.1个百分点至4.4% 高于预期的维持不变 [1][3] - 11月个人消费支出环比增长0.5%符合预期 个人收入环比增长0.3%略低于预期的0.4% [3] - 11月核心PCE物价指数环比增长0.2%同比增长2.8% 均符合预期 该指数是美联储青睐的通胀指标 [3] 货币政策预期与美元压力 - 市场预计美联储将在2026年降息约50个基点 而日本央行预计加息25个基点 欧洲央行预计维持利率不变 这种政策分歧预期令美元承压 [5] - 美联储自12月中旬开始每月购买400亿美元国库券以增加金融体系流动性 此举对美元构成压力 [6] - 市场担忧特朗普总统可能任命一位鸽派的美联储主席 这一预期也对美元不利 相关任命预计将在未来几周内宣布 [6] - 市场预计美联储在1月27-28日的下次会议上降息25个基点的概率仅为5% [4] 欧元兑美元汇率表现及驱动因素 - 周四欧元兑美元汇率上涨0.54% 主要受美元普遍走弱推动 [7] - 欧元获得持续性支撑 因特朗普表示不会对反对其获取格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征关税 [7] - 欧元区1月消费者信心指数升幅超预期 达到11个月高位 进一步助推欧元上涨 [7]