小麦期货市场表现 - 芝加哥期货交易所软红冬麦期货下跌3至4美分 [1] - 堪萨斯城期货交易所硬红冬麦期货下跌4至5美分 [1] - 明尼阿波利斯谷物交易所春小麦期货微跌0至1美分 [1] - 2025年12月到期的CBOT小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.21美元，下跌3.25美分 [2] - 2026年3月到期的CBOT小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.395美元，下跌3美分 [2] - 2025年12月到期的KCBT小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.0575美元，下跌4.25美分 [2] - 2026年3月到期的KCBT小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.2775美元，下跌4美分 [2] - 2025年12月到期的MGEX小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.7075美元，下跌1美分 [2] - 2026年3月到期的MGEX小麦价格为每蒲式耳5.9125美元，下跌0.5美分 [2] 宏观经济与美元 - 美元指数在美联储降息后持续反弹，上涨0.304点至97.275点 [1] 小麦出口销售数据 - 周度出口销售报告显示累计销售（已装船和未装船）达1315.6万公吨 [2] - 累计销售量较去年同期增长20% [2] - 当前销售量创下本周的5年新高 [2] - 销售量已达到美国农业部小麦出口预测值的54% [2] - 销售进度较5年平均水平领先1个百分点 [2]

主要股指表现 - 标普500指数上涨0.48% 纳斯达克100指数上涨0.95% 道琼斯工业指数上涨0.27% 三大指数均创历史新高[1][2] - 九月E-mini标普期货上涨0.50% E-mini纳斯达克期货上涨0.92%[1] 半导体行业动态 - 英特尔股价大涨超过22% 英伟达同意投资50亿美元并宣布将共同开发PC和数据中心芯片[2][12] - KLA Corp上涨超过6% ASML Holding NV上涨超过6% Applied Materials上涨超过6%[12] - 美光科技上涨超过5% Marvell Technology上涨超过5% ON Semiconductor上涨超过4%[12] - 英伟达股价上涨超过3% GlobalFoundries上涨超过2% NXP Semiconductors NV上涨超过2%[12] - ARM Holdings下跌超过4% 因英伟达投资英特尔的消息影响[17] 宏观经济数据 - 每周初请失业金人数下降33,000人至231,000人 低于预期的240,000人[5] - 九月费城联储商业展望调查上升23.5点至23.2 创8个月新高 远高于预期的1.7[5] - 八月领先指标下降0.5% 差于预期的下降0.2% 为四个月最大降幅[6] - 10年期国债收益率上升1.4个基点至4.101% 创两周新高[7] 个股表现 - CrowdStrike上涨超过12% 公司在投资者简报中讨论AI战略并给出2027财年初步展望[13] - 89bio上涨超过85% 罗氏宣布以35亿美元收购公司 每股收购价14.50美元[13] - AeroVironment上涨超过4% 美国银行首次覆盖给予买入评级 目标价300美元[13] - Allstate上涨超过4% 报告八月灾难损失1.68亿美元 环比下降8.7%[14] - Cooper Cos上涨超过4% 董事会批准增加10亿美元股票回购计划至20亿美元[14] - CSX Corp上涨超过2% RBC资本市场将评级从行业表现上调至跑赢大盘 目标价39美元[14] - FactSet Research Systems下跌超过10% 第四季度调整后EPS为4.05美元低于预期的4.15美元[15] - Red Cat下跌超过10% 宣布计划通过承销公开发行出售普通股[16] - Darden Restaurants下跌超过7% 预测2026年调整后EPS为10.50-10.70美元 中点低于预期的10.67美元[16] - Cracker Barrel下跌超过7% 预测2025年收入33.5-34.5亿美元 低于预期的35.2亿美元[17] - Nucor下跌超过5% 预测第三季度EPS为2.05-2.15美元 远低于预期的2.59美元[17] - Live Nation Entertainment下跌超过2% 遭美国联邦贸易委员会和七个州起诉[18] 央行政策与利率 - 市场定价显示94%概率美联储在10月28-29日FOMC会议上降息25个基点[6] - 英国央行以7-2投票维持官方银行利率在4.00%不变[11] - 掉期市场定价显示ECB在10月30日政策会议上降息25个基点的概率为2%[11] - 10年期德国国债收益率上升5.1个基点至2.726% 创两周新高[10] - 10年期英国国债收益率上升5.1个基点至4.676% 创1.5周新高[10] 国际市场表现 - 欧洲斯托克50指数上涨1.62% 创3.5周新高[6] - 中国上证综指下跌1.15% 从10年高点回落[6] - 日经225指数上涨1.15% 创历史新高[6]

We're going to start with a slate of all-time highs on Wall Street. Now, the major averages hit record highs. That's happening almost every day.Investors digesting yesterday's Fed rate cut. Earnings still look good, blah blah blah. The NASDAQ up about a percent, but it was the small cap Russell 2000 leading to gains.It rose more than two and a half%. And you may not know this, but the index setting its first record close since November of 2021. Interestingly though, rates actually were up.The benchmark 10-y ...

市场前景与目标 - 策略师将标普500指数年终目标上调至6600-6800点区间 [1] - 预计2026年市场环境将更优 因财政政策已明朗且货币政策持续宽松 [3] - 市场信号积极 等权重科技股创历史新高 预示今年剩余时间及明年行情向好 [6] 行业基本面 - 企业资产负债表处于异常强劲的状态 [4] - 高收益债券利差创下新低 [4] - 银行业在美联储降息周期中仍创下历史新高 未出现信贷质量恶化或违约潮 [5] 小盘股观点 - 不看好小盘股作为首选投资标的 对近期强势持谨慎态度 [7][10] - 罗素2000指数总市值3万亿美元 远低于美国股市总市值67万亿美元和科技板块28万亿美元市值 [8] - 小盘股领域存在质量恶化问题 私人资本已收购优质公司 且无盈利企业数量创纪录 [9][10] - 约一个月前已将小盘股配置下调至低配 并认为此策略仍然正确 [10]

The Fed did cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected and suggesting two more cuts would come by the end of the year. That was kind of the the median consensus call among the committee. Joining us now, Jeremy Seagull, chief economist at Wisdom Tree and Professor Emeritus of Finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business.Uh Jeremy, it's good to have you this morning. I I guess we can uh you know, if you if you want to just follow the market's verdict, you often don't get a clean ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee at the Federal Reserve on September 17.Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images US stocks saw tepid moves after the Fed delivered its first rate cut of the year on Wednesay. Investors had been pricing the cut for weeks, and some on Wall Street predicted it could be a sell-the-news event. The Fed finally gave the stock market what it had been waiting for all year. Too bad it was m ...

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after the U.S. central bank lowered its key interest rate as widely expected, while an indication of more rate cuts before year-end raised the prospect of a demand boost spurred by falling borrowing costs. ...

美联储降息与抵押贷款利率关系 - 美联储进行了自去年以来的首次降息，幅度为25个基点，并预计今年还将有两次降息 [1] - 尽管市场对美联储降息存在预期，但抵押贷款利率并不必然会随之持续下降，去年在首次降息后利率短暂下跌，但随后转为上升并持续攀升 [3] - 抵押贷款利率的走势并非由美联储直接决定，而是受到美联储利率政策、债券市场投资者对经济和通胀的预期等多种因素影响 [4] 抵押贷款利率近期表现与设定机制 - 自7月下旬以来，由于市场预期美联储降息，抵押贷款利率大多呈下降趋势，上周30年期抵押贷款平均利率为6.35%，为近一年来最低水平 [1] - 抵押贷款利率通常跟随10年期国债收益率的轨迹变动，贷款机构以此作为住房贷款定价的指南 [5] - 抵押贷款通常被打包成抵押贷款支持证券出售给投资者，其收益率会进行调整，以与美国10年期政府债券提供的收益率保持竞争力 [5] 历史参照与未来展望 - 去年此时，在美联储四年多来首次降息前的几周，抵押贷款利率也出现了类似的回落，在央行降息一周后，30年期抵押贷款平均利率降至6.08%的两年低点 [2] - 有观点认为，随着美联储暗示今年可能再降息两次，抵押贷款利率可能进一步下降，但若通胀数据走高，利率也存在反转上升的风险 [4]

Let's go around the table, talk about sort of put, you know, policy to action. Tim, your take on the Fed today. It was a hawkish cut.Um there was no drama. In fact, that's what we wanted. It's what the market wanted. It's what the institution of the Federal Reserve wanted.And uh um I I I think if you look at what the market had priced in it had absolutely priced in 25, but it was it was it was inching for more than two rest of year and one in 26. Um I don't think it's a disaster. the downgrade of of the lab ...

Alan Blinder, a Princeton University professor and former Federal Reserve vice chair, says the Fed may cut rates more than expected this year if the economy deteriorates on "Bloomberg The Close." The Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point. ...