The move by Meta comes after a flurry of high-profile layoffs at big tech peers such as Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet. Gabby Jones / Bloomberg / Getty Images Close Key Takeaways Booming profits and demand for AI hasn't stopped Meta (META) from laying off employees. The Facebook and Instagram parent is trimming about 600 roles in parts of its Superintelligence Labs led by Alexandr Wang, Axios reported Wednesday, though the company continues to hire for other AI-related positions in the unit. The comp ...

Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational thought, predictable trends, and calm, measured reactions to global events. Or, at least, that’s what the textbooks tell us. In the era of Donald J. Trump, however, these hallowed halls of finance often resemble a particularly chaotic reality television show, with market participants glued to every tweet, press conference, and impromptu declaration. The latest round of announcements has once again proven that when it comes to the Trump effect, the only certainty i ...

Amazon, which has asserted its dominance in retail and the tech industry with its cloud computing services, has turned heads this year with dramatic workforce changes as it invests billions into artificial intelligence. In January, Amazon ordered its corporate workforce to return to working in offices five days a week to boost collaboration, brainstorming and innovation. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy also expressed in his annual letter to shareholders, which was unveiled in April, that he wants the company to “op ...

The United States' largest private employer, Walmart Inc., has halted offers to candidates requiring H-1B visas, Bloomberg reported, citing people aware of the development. This is the most recent incident highlighting how the US administration’s $100,000 visa fees have impacted workforce.The current guideline mainly affects Walmart’s corporate staff,the report noted. The latest development comes after US President Donald Trump's imposed a $100,000 fee for new H-1B applications last month, a move reportedly ...

好的，我将根据您提供的电话会议记录，以资深研究分析师的身份进行解读。以下是对全文的详细总结和关键要点分析。 涉及的行业与公司 * 报告核心关注中国股市，包括离岸市场（如MSCI China指数）和在岸A股市场（如CSI300指数）[1][10][11] * 行业层面广泛涉及科技与人工智能、房地产、制造业、消费、金融等多个领域，重点关注私人企业（POEs）[13][27][42] * 主题投资方向包括中国AI主题、出海领先企业（Going Global Leaders）、反内卷受益者（Anti-Involution beneficiaries）、A股小盘股以及高股东回报公司[3][20][83] 核心观点与论据 **1 市场前景：慢牛行情正在形成** * 公司判断中国股市正进入一个更可持续、波动性较低的上升趋势，预计到2027年底主要指数有约30%的上涨空间，主要由约12%的趋势利润增长和5-10%的估值修复驱动[1][11][26] * 这一判断基于股市周期从“希望”阶段向“增长”阶段的过渡，后者通常由盈利实现和适度估值重估共同驱动回报[11][23][26] * MSCI China指数已从2022年末的低点反弹81%，收复了2021年初至2022年末期间约6万亿美元市值损失的一半，但复苏路径被4次平均幅度为22%、持续139天的重大回调所打断[10][26] **2 支撑牛市观点的四大支柱** * **政策面：亲市场的宽松窗口已开启** * 自去年9月以来的全面宽松政策包压缩了左尾风险，理论上可能将MSCI China的均衡估值较2024年9月水平提升20%[6][27][30] * 证监会2024年4月发布的“九条”新政有助于从公司资产负债表释放价值、吸引长线资金并提升股东回报，2024年股息和回购合计达到创纪录的3万亿元人民币，预计2025/2026年可能超过3.6万亿/4万亿元人民币[6][13][28] * 对私营部门的监管周期已出现拐点，政策立场接近有记录以来最宽松水平，这对占上市市值60%的POE板块复苏至关重要[6][27][32] * 房地产行业对经济的拖累正在减弱，其占上市公司利润的份额已从2020年峰值时的27%降至当前的15%[27][34] * **增长面：盈利增长重新加速** * 趋势EPS增长可能从过去十年的7%复合年增长率放缓至未来五年的6%，但三大主题有望将中期指数EPS增长推升至低双位数水平[14][41][53] * **人工智能（AI）**：广泛采用AI可通过成本节约、生产率提升和新收入机会，在未来十年每年提升企业盈利3%（此前预测为2.5%）[42][44][128] * **反内卷（Anti-involution）**：供给侧和行政措施有望促进受“内卷”风险影响最严重行业的利润率正常化，到2028年其底线可能改善50%，相当于未来三年每年为指数EPS带来1.5个百分点的增长[42][46][124] * **出海（Going Global）**：上市公司海外收入份额自2021年以来以每年约0.8个百分点的速度稳步上升（目前为16%），预计未来几年每年可为指数EPS增长贡献1.5个百分点[42][51][130] * **估值面：右尾风险定价合理** * MSCI China和CSI300的12个月前瞻市盈率分别为12.9倍和14.4倍，处于或略高于其中周期水平，估值正常化可能接近尾声[15][55][58] * 全球背景下，中国股市的估值折扣依然根深蒂固，MSCI China指数市盈率较发达市场低35%，较除中国外的新兴市场组合便宜9%[15][55][60] * 相对于国内债券（10年期国债收益率1.8%）和房地产租金收益率等竞争资产类别，股票估值要求不高，实际利率每下降1%可能带来约10%的指数市盈率改善[15][55][65] * 基于宏观模型的公允市盈率预测为13.7倍至15.7倍，纳入AI和流动性因素后，MSCI China和CSI300的公允市盈率分别为14.9倍和17.0倍，表明上行空间在当前倍数中定价吸引[15][55][56][126] * **资金流：资本向股市迁移可能刚刚开始** * 国内资本正在行动：南向资金年内累计达1560亿美元（2024年为1040亿美元），为互联互通机制启动以来最高；个人投资者增加了股票敞口；“国家队”活跃于股市，现持有超过5%的A股上市市值[66][68][80] * 中国家庭资产配置远离有效前沿，房产和现金占比分别为54%和28%，而股票仅占11%，实际利率下降和股票高预期回报可能驱动数万亿元资金从现金类产品转向股市[66][71][77] * 机构化进程加快，国内外机构投资者目前持有14%的境内上市市值，远低于发达市场（59%）和新兴市场（50%）的平均水平，这意味着分别有30万亿元和14万亿元人民币的机构资金可能流入股市[66][77] * 中国重回全球投资者视野，原因包括强劲的年内涨幅、DeepSeek引发的增长乐观情绪、POE监管压力缓解、全球资金寻找美国以外替代市场以及外资对中国股票的配置仍低于基准和历史区间[66][68][79] **3 牛市中的投资策略与心态** * 牛市回调是常见的，在过去的27次牛市中发生了34次幅度在5%至10%之间的回调，平均持续9个交易日[83][84] * 回报分化会加剧，因此倡导以阿尔法为中心的方法，偏好增长型板块，特别是科技/AI方向的主题（如GS Prominent 10、中国AI主题、出海领先企业、反内卷受益者），同时平衡以高现金收益率为特征的股东回报组合[3][20][83][92] * 建议投资者改变默认心态，从“逢高卖出”转向“逢低买入”，并进行战略性建仓[3][83] 其他重要内容 **潜在风险与反对论点** * **全球经济衰退**：公司经济学家认为未来12个月美国/全球经济陷入衰退的概率为30%，若发生衰退，MSCI China平均从峰值到谷下跌30%[96][98] * **中美紧张关系**：双边贸易摩擦再次升级，贸易、技术、资本市场和地缘政治等领域的风险将仍是中国股票定价的关键因素，但中国对美出口依赖度降低、技术自给自足进展以及全球供应链领导地位可能降低其对双边紧张关系的贝塔[97][102][103] * **AI乐观情绪消退**：若美国AI乐观情绪因投资回报率、循环投资和估值担忧而迅速消退， contagion效应可能波及中国AI相关股票，但较低的市场集中度和显著的估值折扣应会缓和潜在冲击[104][105][111] * **国内政策风险**：政策冲击（如市场流动性突然收紧、监管变化、政策落实不及预期）历史上曾导致牛市脱轨，公司将持续重新评估其政策假设[112][115][116] * **持续通缩和盈利衰退**：如果通缩压力因政策不作为、次优资本支出、持续无利润竞争以及缺乏定价纪律和利润最大化思维而持续，公司对利润/利润率的乐观假设和股市观点将无法实现[118][119][121] **重要数据点与预测** * **市场表现**：MSCI China从2022年末低点反弹81%，CSI300反弹46%，期间总市值增加45万亿元人民币/6万亿美元[10][26] * **盈利预测**：预计到2027年指数盈利增长12%（复合年增长率），AI、反内卷、出海三大主题分别贡献约3%、1.5%、1.5%的年化增长[11][42][53] * **估值预测**：预计指数有5-10%的估值扩张空间，到2027年底指数总回报约30%[1][11][87] * **资金流预测**：预计未来几年将有超过6万亿元人民币的潜在资产重新配置资金从房地产市场、固定收益产品和现金/存款流向股市[6][18][77] * **股东回报**：2024年股息和回购合计达3万亿元人民币，预计2025/2026年可能超过3.6万亿/4万亿元，相当于当前价格下约3%-3.3%的股东回报收益率[28][36]

Take While the S&P 500 has defied virtually every warning in the past six months, clocking one of the best stretches since the 1950s, this October gap indicates some investors are covering their shorts ahead of the "It's not easy to short this market because it feels like this rally is never going to end," said Thomas Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, who has a small net short position in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 Index. "It's painful and discouraging to get your face ripped off everyday."B ...

File photo (Picture credit: AP)The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1 per cent to 46,757.20, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1 per cent to 6,731.14 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.3 per cent to 22,933.67, reported news agency AFP.General Motors (GM) surged 10.2 per cent after reporting quarterly results that surpassed analyst expectations and raising its full-year financial forecasts. According to news agency AP, CEO Mary Barra said the company is taking steps to curb losses in its electric vehicle busin ...

So, we have a lot to go through, friends, and that's why I bring in my friend Kevin Hanks, CBOE. That's where he's standing. We have a prebell playbook.Um, Apple, right. We saw Apple at a record. What are you looking at.>> Good morning, uh, Nicole. You know, stock futures are relatively calm to start the day. What's really active are metals this morning with a big correction, a big sell-off in in uh gold futures are down 3.3%, silver down 4.8%, copper down 8/10en of a percent, but gold and silver big movers ...

公司业绩展望 - 七家领先公司第三季度预计实现平均15%的同比利润增长 [1]

Nasdaq 100 futures held steady this morning after tech stocks neared record highs yesterday. Some analysts are worried there is a bubble in tech, as unprofitable small-cap tech companies are outperforming companies with actual profits on the Russell 2000. Valuations look frothy but could go higher if AI capex increases beyond its already high levels. Nasdaq 100 futures are flat this morning, premarket, after the tech-heavy index rose a solid 1.3% yesterday, nearing its record high. By contrast, the broa ...