Morgan Stanley chief equity analyst Mike Wilson has been saying for years the U.S. was in a “rolling recession” when economists were seeing nothing but GDP growth. Since April, he’s been declaring a “rolling recovery,” with the early stages of an economic boom working its way through various sectors in the economy. His optimism has been borne out by an economy that has surprised to the upside consistently throughout 2025, with skeptics warning the impact of tariffs and wider macroeconomic uncertainty would ...

摩根士丹利对S&P 500的预测 - 摩根士丹利预测S&P 500指数将在2026年中达到7200点，较上一交易日收盘价6389点上涨12% [1] - 该预测基于经济复苏、人工智能采用、美元走弱、通胀削减法案带来的税收优惠等利好因素 [2][4] - S&P 500指数过去一周已上涨1.3% [1] 支持看涨观点的因素 - 美联储可能在2026年第一季度降息 [3][4] - 企业运营杠杆改善和行业需求积压 [4] - 工业板块被列为摩根士丹利的首选投资领域 [3] 华尔街其他机构的预测 - 奥本海默将S&P 500年终目标从5950点上调至7100点，理由是企业盈利强劲和经济数据韧性 [5] - BMO、高盛和美国银行分别预测6700点、6600点和6300点 [5] - 巴克莱和摩根大通等传统谨慎机构也上调了预期 [5] - 但Evercore ISI和汇丰银行保持最保守预测5600点 [7] 市场情绪转变 - 华尔街分析师因美国与主要贸易伙伴达成协议而转向乐观 [10][11] - 此前因贸易关税不确定性导致的看跌情绪已缓解 [10]