Key Points The Buffett indicator has accurately predicted past market downturns and is now at its highest level ever. The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE ratio has predicted multiple market crashes and is now at its second-highest level ever. The best thing investors can do is be prepared for a potential market decline while focusing on the long term. These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires › You've no doubt heard the phrase, "What goes up can come down." This adage continually lurks in the ...

美联储主席对股市估值的评论 - 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示美国股市估值相当高 [1] - 此评论导致标准普尔500指数在本周出现下跌 [7] 市场估值水平评估 - 美国银行指出其追踪的20个估值指标中有19个显示市场处于历史高位 其中4个指标处于历史最高水平 [2] - 席勒周期调整市盈率CAPE比率本周达到自互联网泡沫顶峰以来的最高水平 [3] 高估值对长期回报的影响 - 高股票估值可能是长期回报的预兆信号 [4] - 席勒CAPE比率与未来10年的回报率高度相关 估值高企意味着未来盈利增长已被定价 通常导致股价后续表现不佳 [4] 估值指标的局限性分析 - 席勒CAPE比率存在局限性 因其衡量10年滚动平均盈利 对当前状况反应较慢 可能并非未来回报的理想预测指标 [5] - 耶鲁大学经济学家威廉·戈茨曼指出该指标观测值之间存在高度相关性 难以对分析结果建立信心 [6] - Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye补充说明席勒市盈率并非前瞻性指标 [6] 高估值环境下的投资视角 - 如果企业盈利保持强劲 高估值未必意味着投资者将遭受损失 [7] - 市场参与者更专注于未来表现 因此华尔街普遍独家使用前瞻市盈率 [8]

Over the past five years, stocks have only gained once in September.No matter what the market is doing, it's a great idea to keep an eye on the moves of Warren Buffett. He's proved his understanding of stocks over time and his ability to translate that into investing success. The top investor has sat at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway for nearly 60 years, and over that time period has helped drive a compounded annual return of about 20%. That far outshines the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.32%), which delivered a 10% su ...