核心通胀数据与货币政策 - 2025年5月核心PCE通胀环比上升0.22% 同比上升2.68% 强化美联储鹰派立场将持续至下半年 [1] - 10年期国债收益率从3.35%攀升至3.45% 反映市场推迟降息预期 [2] 利率环境对金融业影响 - 收益率曲线陡峭化改善银行净息差 提升商业银行盈利能力 [2][4] - 银行股和保险公司受益于持续加息 2025年标普500金融板块ETF(XLF)年内涨幅达9.1% [5] - 高利率环境下贷款利差扩大 存款等短期负债增加进一步支撑净息差 [4] 重点推荐个股分析 - Nelnet(NNI) 当前财年盈利预期增长59% 过去60天盈利预测上调16.8% 获Zacks评级1级 [8] - Pagaya Technologies(PGY) 采用AI技术服务金融业 当前财年盈利预期增长195.2% 盈利预测60天内上调39.2% [9] - United Fire Group(UFCS) 财险公司 下一年盈利预期增长8% 盈利预测60天内上调3.3% 获Zacks评级2级 [10] 金融板块投资逻辑 - 金融股普遍支付股息 财务健康度成为核心评估指标 适合加入投资组合 [6] - 筛选标准采用Zacks评级1-2级且VGM评分A/B级 综合价值/成长/动量指标 [7]

报告行业投资评级 报告未提及行业投资评级相关内容 报告的核心观点 - 不要被标普500指数的历史新高分散注意力，股市在预示衰退方面表现不佳，投资者应关注经济数据而非股市 [1][11] - 未来一周美国劳动力市场数据对美国利率市场至关重要，可能引发收益率曲线变陡和国债收益率下降 [18] - 建议利用国债收益率因额外关税公告而上涨的机会，增加长期期限交易和收益率曲线变陡交易 [41] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 股市与衰退的关系 - 在15次衰退中的4次（27%），股市在衰退开始当月或之后达到峰值；在股市在衰退开始前达到峰值的11次衰退中的7次（64%），衰退开始时市场交易价格在衰退前高点的5%以内；在股市在衰退开始前达到峰值的11次衰退中的4次（36%），市场仅在衰退开始前2个月达到峰值 [6][21] 美国劳动力市场数据 - 劳工统计局将发布5月JOLTS数据，LinkUp的职位空缺数据暗示存在下行风险；经济学家预计6月总就业人数增长14万，这与近期失业率数据显示的情况不符 [30][32] 美国财政状况 - 过去3个月，现金流赤字因税收收入增加、关税收入增加和政府支出减少而大幅下降；美国财政部在过去3个月向银行系统注入的现金净额远低于去年同期 [19][29] 关税相关情况 - 特朗普关于关税的推文引发美国国债收益率上涨，建议利用国债收益率因额外关税公告而上涨的机会，增加长期期限交易和收益率曲线变陡交易 [40][41] 交易建议 - 交易建议包括进入10年期美国国债SOFR掉期利差多头、维持美国国债5年期多头、维持FVU5多头、维持美国国债3s30s收益率曲线变陡交易、维持期限SOFR 1y1y对5y5y曲线变陡交易和维持0QU5 96.75/97/97.25看涨蝶式期权多头 [41]

we discuss ideas like this as they happen in more detail. All active investors are welcome to join on a free trial and ask any question in our chat room full of sophisticated traders and investors.Today's article is about a very well-known BDC company to all of us. As most of you know, we favor short-duration products that come with high yields. Following the BDC crash, many companies in the sector experienced a precipitousDenislav leads the investing group Trade With Beta , features of the service include: ...

30 May 2025 | 4:50PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart Assessing the risk to equities from elevated bond yields David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kart ...

BIS Working Papers No 1270 Stablecoins and safe asset prices Rashad Ahmed and Iñaki Aldasoro Monetary and Economic Department May 2025 JEL classification: E42, E43, G12, G23 Keywords: stablecoins, Treasury securities, money market funds, safe assets BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technica ...

I am a full-time analyst interested in a wide range of stocks. With my unique insights and knowledge, I hope to provide other investors with a contrasting view of my portfolio, given my particular background.If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me via a direct message on Seeking Alpha or leave a comment on one of my articles.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the ...

美联储理事沃勒最新表示，他仍然认为今年晚些时候有可能降息，因为他预计关税将推高失业率，并暂 时推高通胀。 6月2日，据彭博报道，美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）在首尔举行的一场韩国央行会议上表示， 关税将在"未来几个月"推高通胀，支持在制定政策时，只要通胀预期保持稳定，就会忽略短期内价格上 涨的可能性。沃勒表示： "假设有效关税税率接近我的较低关税情形，潜在通胀继续朝着2%的目标取得进展，劳动力 市场保持稳健，将支持今年晚些时候实施'好消息式'的降息。" 这位美联储理事还在讲话中指出，财政赤字担忧加剧，将推高长期美债收益率。沃勒还还对稳定币发表 了看法，将其描述为向支付系统引入竞争的潜在工具。 通胀是暂时性的 据报道，这位美联储理事援引了他4月中旬的一次讲话，当时他概述了贸易政策可能展开的两种情形： "大关税"情形假设对商品征收平均25%的贸易加权关税，并维持一段时间。 "小关税"情形则假设10%的平均关税，且针对特定国家和行业的更高关税将随时间推移通过 谈判降低。 在两种情形下，沃勒都预期关税对通胀的影响将是暂时的。沃勒表示， "自（4月中旬）那次讲话以来贸易谈判的进展让我的基本预期介 ...

Today’s stock market is as different as it can be from the one that most investors are used to seeing in the past. The new market regime requires participants to be more aware of what is happening everywhere, lest they miss out on life-changing opportunities or overstay their welcome when things are going well and give up most (if not all) of their gains back to the marketplace. The true way to stay in sync with the market is not by watching and understanding one market closely every day, such as the S&P 50 ...

In this video, I will talk about the spike in U.S. Treasury yields, the recent drop in FICO (FICO -0.17%) stock, and OpenAI's acquisition of Jony Ive's company. Watch the short video to learn more, consider subscribing, and click the special offer link below.*Stock prices used were from the trading day of May 21, 2025. The video was published on May 22, 2025. ...

Thursday, May 22, 2025Market indexes broke the spell today about high bond yields providing a headwind for equities. This doesn’t appear to have as much to do with the overall levels — the 30-year at +5.05% is the highest it’s been in 18 years — but that they have moderated from yesterday’s spike and this morning’s heated levels.That said, the major indexes took a dive in the final half-hour of trading today, finishing flat overall on the Dow, S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000. The Nasdaq, which also tacke ...